Matt Strahm is 27 years old and has all 118 innings as a big-league pitcher. Still, he throws four pitches, misses an awful lot of bats, and limits the walks to the point that they should never preclude him from having success. It seems like the Padres will utilize him out of the rotation this season, and of late his star is on the rise amongst the fantasy community. So, just who is the left formerly of the Royals?
27 years old
Bats/Throws: Right/Left
Height/Weight: 6’3”, 185 lbs.
Position: Starting Pitcher
THE NUMBERS
|
|
Level |
IP |
W-L |
ERA |
WHIP |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
HR/9 |
GB/FB |
|
2012 |
RK |
30.1 |
1-3 |
5.64 |
1.68 |
12.50 |
5.00 |
0.00 |
|
|
2014 |
RK |
19.2 |
1- |
2.29 |
1.02 |
12.47 |
4.60 |
0.50 |
|
|
2015 |
A, A+ |
94 |
3-7 |
2.59 |
0.97 |
11.60 |
3.00 |
0.00 |
|
|
2016 |
AA |
102.1 |
3-7 |
3.43 |
1.20 |
9.40 |
2.00 |
1.20 |
|
|
2017 |
AAA |
5 |
0-0 |
0.00 |
0.40 |
12.60 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
|
2018 |
AA |
14.1 |
1-0 |
2.51 |
1.26 |
13.80 |
2.50 |
0.60 |
|
|
|
Minors |
265.2 |
16-29 |
3.18 |
1.16 |
11.00 |
2.90 |
0.80 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2016 |
MLB |
22 |
2-2 |
1.23 |
1.09 |
12.27 |
4.50 |
0.00 |
1.62 |
|
2017 |
MLB |
34.2 |
2-5 |
5.45 |
1.50 |
9.61 |
5.71 |
1.56 |
0.85 |
|
2018 |
MLB |
61.1 |
3-4 |
2.05 |
0.98 |
10.13 |
3.08 |
0.88 |
0.80 |
|
Career |
|
118 |
7-11 |
2.90 |
1.15 |
10.37 |
4.12 |
0.92 |
0.91 |
THE SKILLS
Let’s look at some Statcast data.
Amongst pitchers who had 150 batted ball events last season, Straham was 31st in average exit velocity out of 310 qualifiers. That pretty impressive.
Amongst pitchers who had 150 batted ball events last season, Straham was 32nd in the percentage of batted balls that came off the bat at 95 mph out of 310 qualifiers. That’s pretty impressive. At the same time…
Batters produced a barrel rate of 5.7 percent last season, merely 250th out of 310 qualifiers. Maybe not much velocity, but lots of barrels.
Amongst pitchers who had 150 batted ball events last season, Straham was 268th in average homer depth in feet out of 310 qualifiers. Guys hit it far off him when they laid into it.
Strahm had a wOBA of .250 last season with an expected wOBA of .288. Out of the 361 hurlers who faced at least 200 plate appearances, the difference of .038 was the 10th worst as his actual performance was much lower than the expected mark.
Strahm throws four pitches, and that gives batters a lot to ponder.
Last season Strahm threw his fastball 58 percent of the time, his slider 15 percent, his changeup 15 percent and his curveball 12 percent of the time. As the seasons have passed, he’s pulled back on his fastball usage as his secondary pitches have grown more effective. Let’s look at each pitch.
Strahm’s fastball velocity has basically sat at 93-94 mph. However, as the years have gone on, he’s started to elevate the pitch more and more (more on that in a second). According to Statcast, his fastball spin rate was in the 86th percentile, and impressive mark, and that has helped him to an impressive set of swing numbers on the pitch. Those numbers included an elevated 32 percent K-rate with a 12.3 percent swinging strike rate. He had a mere 22 percent ground ball rate on the pitch as he attacked the upper end of the strike zone looking to elevate his pitches while changing the sight line of the batter.
Strahm wasn’t allowed to throw a breaking pitch until he was 15 as his dad worried about his health. (clicking on that link will get you photos and descriptions about how he throws his slider nowadays). That slider is thrown hard, and generates a whole lotta swing and misses (23.5 percent swinging strike rate, a massive number and the K-rate was similarly ginormous at 41.0 percent).
The curveball had a spin-rate last season in the 89th percentile according to Statcast. It’s more of a sweeping curve than a sharp breaker, and as a result it’s not a high-level swing and miss pitch at all. In fact, it’s well below average in that measure with a K-rate of 7.7 percent and a swinging strike rate of 3.3 percent. Still, the pitch allowed a mere .671 OPS so he was effective even without missing bats with it.
The change-up doesn’t result in strikeouts, but he does generate loads of grounders on the pitch (64 percent of the batted balls last season). In fact, the Royals didn’t encourage him to throw the pitch much, the marks were 8.4 and 9.0 percent his first two seasons, before he used it 50 percent more as a Padre in 2018. The results on the pitch improved as the season wore on in 2018, and that’s very encouraging.
Let’s look at the totality of his 2018 season, recognizing that amongst his 41 outings that he made only five starts, and starting is vastly different than working an inning out of the bullpen (more on this below).
Strahm had an impressive 10.13 K/9 rate with a 12.6 swinging strike rate. He sure seems like a strike an inning type of arm.
Strahm had an impressive 66.5 first pitch strike rate that was about six percent above the league average. As a full-time starter, it’s questionable if he will be able to sustain that pace. Even with that strong work, he still walked 3.08 batters per nine innings. That rate, by the way, was just above the 2.90 mark he posted in the minors and it’s a long way below the 4.12 rate he owns as a major leaguer. It’s a sustainable rate though.
When Strahm began his career his ground ball rate was frequently above 45 percent. As noted above, he made a change to his game and started to elevate the fastball. That has resulted in his ground ball rate, in three big-league seasons, going from 47 to 37 to 35 percent. As that rate has gone down, the fly ball rate has crept upward. In his three big-league seasons the mark has gone from 29 to 44 percent. Moreover, his 1.62 GB/FB ratio from year one has been 0.82 the past two seasons, virtually half. He was fortunate last season with a 9.2 percent HR/FB ratio, and with the likelihood that the number goes up this season it’s also likely that we see his career 0.92 HR/9 rate climb up just a bit to the league average.
In his young big-league career, he’s posted a .325 wOBA against lefties, which is obviously slightly worse than the league average. However, he’s dominated righties with a .252 mark as he’s held lefties to a batting average under .175.
PLAYING TIME
Innings… where are they? You will have to search long and hard to find them with Strahm. Might as well keep looking as you just ain’t gonna find them.
2012: 30.1 innings
2013: zero innings (Tommy John surgery)
2014: 19.2 innings
2015: 94.0 innings
2016: 122.1 innings
2017: 39.2 innings (knee)
2018: 61.1 innings
And hence a significant rub on Strahm.
Even if he’s willing to make 30-starts, is it possible he will be able to?
Strahm has never thrown 125-innings in his 7-year career.
Strahm has thrown 95-innings once.
Further he’s made just 10 starts out of his last 78 outings as a professional.
Further part II, he’s thrown just 25 innings in the bigs as a starting pitcher. Twenty-five.
There are no innings on his arm.
So, let me legitimate ask you – how is he gonna throw 150-innings this season, even if the Padres need him to? Good question, and one that not enough people seem to be considering if you read some of the hype. Nevertheless, it sure seems that the Padres plan to roll him out there every fifth game… or something like that. The rotation will include something like: Joey Lucchesi, Eric Lauer, Robbie Erlin, Strahm and… Chris Paddack, at least until Dinelson Lamet is ready to return from Tommy John surgery. I have personally said, over and over, that the Padres should either (A) trade some of their outfield depth or (B) trade some of their prospect depth for another starting pitching arm, something they desperately need.
AVERAGE DRAFT POSITION DATA
As of this writing, here is the ADP data for Strahm (since March 1st).
|
|
Overall |
Position Rank |
|
289.3 |
112th |
The Fantasy Guru Rankings can be found by clicking on the link.
CONCLUSION
Strahm has talent, throws four pitches, and misses bats. There’s a lot to like with the skill set here. That said, my biggest concern is obvious with Strahm – how much work can he take? If drafting Strahm I would suggest viewing him as, in a best-case scenario, as being Rich Hill. Honestly, he’s even less certain to throw 125-innings than Hill at this point, and that’s the rub (and remarkable to write). If you draft Strahm at pick 289 as his ADP suggest, it’s fine. If it doesn’t work out, or if he’s injured, you can just head to the wire to grab another arm. However, not that Strahm has gone as high as 63 in a draft at the NFBC. Don’t be that guy/gal. When looking at the arm right in front of him in ADP – Julio Teheran – you have an established arm that you can feel confident will throw 175-innings. You can try the upside play with Strahm, just understand the downside is also something that should be considered when you consider when to call out his name.
10-Team Mixed: For me, he’s the final guy on a staff here. Same time, you could say there will be a bounty of arms on waivers, a guy like Teheran as an example, so why not take a shot on Strahm’s talent. If he craps out, it’s not like you can’t replace him.
12/15-Team Mixed: Strahm just isn’t a target of mine, not with the concerns about the innings and the hype that he’s generating. That’s just not a profile that I want to do battle with others to roster.
NL-Only League: Carry the cost/availability thing close to your heart here. Be cautious of paying a price that is above the 125-inning point. Even if he’s really good over those 125-innings, it’s extremely difficult to back-fill 50 high quality innings in a league specific setup.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
