Here we goooo!

With the regular season just around the corner, most of us are in heavy draft mode. Some of us who play NFBC (and even many folks who play elsewhere – Fantrax, RT, ESPN, CBS, etc.) usually find out our draft spots well ahead of the actual draft. Whether you’re in a 10, 12 or 15-team league, it is vital that we head into every draft with some sort of loose, yet strategic plan of attack. It is truly a balance. If you’re too stringent with your plan, then when Player A gets taken one pick ahead of you, there’s a good chance you may be scrambling and will make a hasty decision with the pressure of a ticking clock. On the contrary, your decision-making can be thrown off if you have too many possible targets in a given round.

Let’s take 15-team drafts for our examples this week since this is NFBC Main Event weekend in Vegas (and online) where the format is a 15-teamer.

(ADPs listed below are from the eight Main Event drafts last weekend in NYC, Chicago and online)

ADP (average draft position) becomes less viable and more volatile the later we get into the draft. An unpopular mid-range starting pitcher like Jose Quintana can be taken anywhere as high as 153 overall and as low as 215 overall. A major late-draft season surger like Padres’ rookie Chris Paddack (last weekend ADP: 186) was taken as high as 137 overall in this past weekend’s Main Events after being completely off the radar in drafts last month, available past pick 450. My boy Domingo Santana is technically no longer my boy. After grabbing him near pick 400 overall in February slow drafts, he has crept his way up into the top-200 overall with ease, where he will need to hit most standard projections in order to earn (or possibly exceed) value at his new ADP. There is a wide range on our mid and late-round targets, and it comes down to personal preference.

Starting with Trout or Betts

The earlier rounds are a different story altogether. Based on where our draft slot is, we should have a fair idea of who may fall into our lap. The decision is easier if we’re blessed with the #1 or # 2 pick. Unless we’re trying to be a hero or show off, we’re likely auto-selecting Mike Trout or Mookie Betts and putting most of our concentration on what to do in the following rounds.

Those with that early pick instantly have to turn their attention to targets in the 27 to 35 ADP range. With most drafts snaked, you’re getting two picks at 30/31 overall and need to have some idea how we’re going to attack, as that initial roster construction of those first three players sets the strategy for how we balance out the next few rounds. In contests like the NFBC Main Event where we have the overall prize component, most who have played in the format a while realize just how important securing solid starting pitching is. And in these live Main Events in the final two weekends before the season, we have traditionally seen pitching pushed up the draft boards in a big way. That means guys like Blake Snell (ADP: 28), Carlos Carrasco (ADP: 31.7) and Noah Syndergaard (ADP: 32.5) may not even be available if you’ve nabbed Trout and are looking for an ace at the round 2-3 turn. And you can forget about Aaron Nola, Trevor Bauer, Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander. In fact, don’t be surprised to see Verly or Cole get taken at beginning of the second round (pick 16) by those who know good pitching may not get back to them at their next picks.

Keeping this in mind and knowing that we have two selections at 30/31, we need to have a loose plan intact for that spot. Do we push up a Walker Buehler (ADP: 38.5), or do we just attack with two of our favorite hitters (Blackmon, Soto, Benintendi, Mondesi, Bryant) and hope to potentially snag two arms at the next turn (Rounds 4-5 / Picks 60, 61). At that point, it’s all about projecting the type of arms who may be available there (Jose Berrios, Zack Greinke, Zack Wheeler, German Marquez) and if we’re comfortable with them as our number one (and possibly number two if we double-tap SPs) starting pitchers.

Our plans are often thrown out of whack when someone falls past their ADP and we have to make adjustments on the fly. Say you’re set on taking a pitcher at 30/31 (Round 2/3 turn) and love Giancarlo Stanton (ADP: 22), but for some strange reason (or because pitching is crazily pushed up), he falls to you at the 30/31 overall turn to pair with your Trout. That’s the point where you don’t look the gift horse in the mouth, draft him along with the next best hitter available and look to draft pitching on the next turn.

The other curveball this year is the fact we need to be cognizant of our plan of attack with closers with so few certifiably solid options, as we don’t want to be stuck chasing saves in FAAB all season. It has already been an issue the last few years but is ever so magnified in 2019. So you need to pretty much identify which range you want to grab your first closer. If you feel strongly about one of the top guys (Edwin Diaz, Blake Treinen, Kenley Jansen, Roberto Osuna), then you may want to consider pushing up and grabbing one at the 4/5 turn (picks 60/61), knowing you’ll have to wait a full 30 picks for another shot (and note that Diaz likely won’t be there). The guys at the 6/7 turn (picks 90/91) may have some options for you (Kirby Yates, Sean Doolittle, Jose LeClerc). But closer runs happen quickly in these drafts, and there’s nothing worse than waiting so long for your pick as you watch your queue of closers get decimated.

Being able to adjust for each round set is important on the turns (picks 1, 2, 14, 15). Luckily, you have plenty of time before your set of picks to pre-plan, in-draft, how you want to attack.

Drafting in the Middle

It’s an interesting case study this year. The fact there’s no sure-fire # 3 overall pick this year makes the three-pick one of the least desirable among the masses this draft season. In the eight Main Event drafts last weekend, we saw five different guys get drafted third overall (Jose Ramirez, Max Scherzer, Christian Yelich, Trea Turner and J.D. Martinez). And you can be certain Francisco Lindor would have received consideration there had he not been injured. Drafting from the 3-4-5-6 area can be angst-ridden if you don’t have a set guy who your most confident about. Like all drafts, it comes down to personal preference – but more so, it’s a matter of who we feel has the safest floor, and what our plan of attack is in the ensuing rounds. It’s more important we avoid potential busts in the first round than it is looking for that smash guy. Most drafts are “won” in the middle and late rounds and with our hard work in FAAB anyway.

Instead of looking at what impact your first round guy has, take a look and project what foursome you may start your draft selecting. The # 5 pick, for example, also gives you 26 (Round 2), 35 (Round 3) and 45 (Round 4). Starting with Scherzer at # 5 means, if you wanted to, you can confidently attack hitting with the next three picks. Though, one of the biggest mistakes I’ve seen folks make over the years is to wait too long for pitching. Drafting Scherzer in the first doesn’t mean it’s okay to wait until Round 10 for Eduardo Rodriguez or Tyler Glasnow as your SP2 – especially in the Main Event with the overall component. I’ve seen sharp drafters, who feel more comfortable drafting strong late-round hitters, grab their second ace earlier on (maybe a Jack Flaherty or James Paxton in Round 4 this year) along with two hitters in those first four rounds – and then continue pounding hitters and mixing in value pitchers. Sometimes, it’s just wise to ‘double-down’ with another solid pitcher in the first five rounds if you start with a Scherzer or Jacob deGrom to give yourself a solid base of ratios (ERA/WHIP) as well as strikeouts, and potentially, wins.

Picks 7 through 10 are a nice sweet spot in the middle of drafts. While experienced high-stakes players love picking at the wheels (1-2, 14-15) and are able to withstand the pressure of oncoming positional runs, many are certainly comfortable with picking from middle spots, as they feel more in control of the draft from there. Picking from # 8, for example, can produce many different viable combinations (picks 8 – 23 – 38 – 53):

Option 1 – Balance and Freedom

Christian Yelich (OF) + Freddie Freeman (1B) + Walker Buehler (SP1) + Stephen Strasburg (SP2)

This is your quintessential ‘safe’ start where you’ve built a nice base with two high-average guys and two solid top-20 starting pitchers (feel free to insert Berrios, Greinke, Kershaw, Marquez instead if you like). As you enter Round 5, you have more freedom to take on fallen value as it comes and go in any direction you like with hitters in the next few rounds. Having two starting pitchers gives you comfort where you don’t have to worry about the position if you don’t want to for quite a few rounds. With Yelich, you’ve got a few stolen bases under your belt where you’re not overly concerned with going too heavy with a rabbit-like Mallex Smith or Dee Gordon.

Option 2 – Heavy Hitting w/ upside

Ronald Acuña (OF) + Manny Machado (3B) + Rhys Hoskins (1B/OF) + Xander Bogaerts (SS)

This gives you a monster base in hitting with exposure to big-time power (potential 100 homers from those first three bats), some batting average and a bit of speed. It’s a foursome ideal for those who really feel strongly about their ability to nail starting pitching later in the draft. But note, your margin for error is slim here with your pitching staff, and you may be chasing pitching categories all season. You could hit someone like German Marquez in Round 5, then a closer and a couple more starters to get your balance later, but it’s certainly not a strategy for the risk-averse or those who feel more comfortable with balanced builds.

Option 3 – Pitching Base w/ speed

Jacob deGrom (SP1) + Aaron Nola (SP2) + Starling Marte (OF1) + Tommy Pham (OF2)

Here’s an interesting mix – and of course note, these super-heavy pitching strategies are more so specifically tailored to the NFBC 15-teamers where pitching gets pushed up like crazy. A deGrom/Nola combo provides you with the ability to truly wait for your SP3 for quite some time, and the speed combo allows you to concentrate specifically on power bats moving forward. Over the years, I’ve always looked to concentrate grabbing the bulk of my starting pitchers from the National League, but with so many weak hitting teams in the AL (specifically, the AL Central), it’s okay to loosen up our restrictions a bit in this regard.

The Back-End Wheel

Not the most desirable of spots, but several winners of the $150,000 Main Event overall prize in the last decade have specifically selected drafting at or toward the end as their preference. It’s a spot I loved last year where J.D. Martinez, Freddie Freeman, Kris Bryant and Carlos Correa reigned and were readily available at the 15/16 turn (Round 1, 2) even though Bryant and Correa ended up busting. Despite the 14-18 overall range currently having a plethora of offensive talent that can fall there (Jose Altuve, Bryce Harper, Francisco Lindor, Alex Bregman, Aaron Judge, Trevor Story), the main reason some Main Event drafters are not fans of the spot this year is because of the lack of options with starting pitchers at the next, 45/46 turn (Rounds 3, 4). It means, if you draft two of those hitters at 15/16, you likely end up pushing up/reaching for a tier of pitchers like Marquez or Zack Wheeler. If you’re comfortable with it, so be it. But some who purposely select the back-end wheel as their draft slot of choice are likely either hoping for Chris Sale to fall or will be reaching up for a Houston ace like Verlander or Cole with one of those first two picks. Knowing you’re drafting at the end of the first round and beginning of the second means having some idea of what your plan is in Rounds 3, 4 (45/46) and Rounds 5, 6 (75/76). If you have plans to grab a closer at the 5/6 turn, make sure you’re either willing to push into the next tier of closers if run ensues or have a backup plan of hitters you like in that range.

The main concept I hope you’ve taken away from this is knowing your draft slot in advance can be a tremendous advantage to those who loosely formulate a plan for each round, or each set of rounds (if you’re drafting at either wheel). Preparation is key. Those who have mapped out targets and scenarios for those first few rounds usually have a leg up on their competitors and are less likely to make rash decisions when the clock is ticking away at their pick.