Ray Flowers and Vlad Sedler take counter positions on a single player, one for, one against. Which one of our experts do you agree with? Does either strike a knockout blow? Is there a TKO? Is there a need for another round? Two or our best analysts give their thoughts on a player for the upcoming season allowing you to be the judge as to which side makes the stronger argument, for or against the player. If you want to discuss this, or anything else further, spend some time in our Live Chat where we do our best to answer any questions that you might have.
Starling Marte
By Ray Flowers
Starling Marte has long been one of my favorite fantasy additions on draft day. Though he’s only appeared in 150-games, he was at 145 outings last season, per 162 for his career the fantasy line sparkles with an average effort of .286-17-67-90-42. That line looks to be very close to the numbers he posted last season in those 145 outings (.277-20-72-81-33). In all five of the seasons in which he’s appeared in 125 games he’s never failed to swipe 30 bags, and though he’s now 30 years old, he still ran 47 times last season suggesting that he has no intention of slowing down this season. His approach dampens his chances of hitting .300 again, he just doesn’t take a walk, and the .330 OBP likely limits the steals upside at this point as well. Still, even if we say he’s “only” a legit 15/30 guy, that’s still damn useful these days. I think another run to 20/30 is doable though, especially when you consider that he’s upped his fly ball rate each of the last three seasons up to a career best 32.2 percent last season. He also inched his pull rate up about four percent last season, another reason to believe that a second season of 20 homers is possible, and it’s not like he had some crazy high HR/FB ratio last season driving the homer total (it was 14.0 percent, about a percentage point above his career level). The only legit negative with Marte, and it’s a fair critique, is that he always seems to end up on the injured list for a bit, and with advancing age the chance of a repeat stay would seemingly increase. I’ll brush aside those concerns, target the power/speed combo and spot in the top-third of the Pirates order, and welcome him gladly as one of my foundational offensive pieces in 2019.
By Vlad Sedler
There is no doubt that I’m in the minority here, but Marte is one of the few guys in the top-40 overall who I’m not enamored with and feel he will end up not earning his draft-day price. Marte was once quite the rabbit. He swiped 41 bags in his first full season (2013), followed by two seasons of 30 each, then a whopping 47 in 2016. The performance-enhancing drugs suspension from 2017 was a big shock to most of us, though he did still steal 21 bags in just 339 plate appearances that season. A decent 20 homer, 33 steal season last year is the biggest catalyst to his top-40 price tag, but there is reason for concern in 2019. First of all, Marte’s sprint speed via Statcast has decreased in each of the last few seasons and he is on the wrong side of 30 (well, 30 years old to be exact). He hits in the middle of a very unassuming Pirates’ lineup that will be without Gregory Polanco for at least the first few weeks and he will likely start the year hitting second behind Adam Frazier and in front of Corey Dickerson – not exactly an ideal scenario. There is no reason to believe a PED issue should arise again, but we can’t 100 percent dismiss it. Even then, guess how many times Marte has played in over 150 games in a season? Just once, back in 2015. My projections for Marte this year are lower than the projections we find on Steamer, ATC, THE BAT, et al. I’m expecting Marte to fall short of the 30-steal plateau and disappoint in the other counting categories (R, RBI) given the team around him. There are too many solid outfield options who can produce equal to Marte’s projected output later in the draft (Lorenzo Cain, A.J. Pollock and even Brandon Nimmo and Austin Meadows come to mind). Based upon the alternative options available in that third round of 15-teamers, Marte simply isn’t worth the investment as those of us who still have drafts left should consider looking elsewhere.
