Ray Flowers and Vlad Sedler take counter positions on a single player, one for, one against. Which one of our experts do you agree with? Does either strike a knockout blow? Is there a TKO? Is there a need for another round? Two or our best analysts give their thoughts on a player for the upcoming season allowing you to be the judge as to which side makes the stronger argument, for or against the player. If you want to discuss this, or anything else further, spend some time in our Live Chat where we do our best to answer any questions that you might have.
Shane Bieber
By Vlad Sedler
There are certainly concerns we all should have with Shane Bieber. The first being his insane draft season helium. He is so popular, it’s as if everyone is simply assuming he is going to be a fantasy stud in his first full season in the league without thinking for themselves. If you step back and look at it, he’s a guy with just 114.2 innings of big-league experience who posted a 4.55 ERA, yet we’re scooping him up earlier and earlier in drafts without concern. Someone who was available around the 150-170 overall ADP range and now is consistently going around 100-120 ahead of established guys like Kyle Hendricks, Masahiro Tanaka, Robbie Ray and Charlie Morton. That, in and of itself, is a big reason to step back and re-assess. The second concern was his struggles against lefty bats as his .383 wOBA-against and 48 percent hard-hit rate were among the worst in the league last year. Yet, the future shines bright for Bieber for many more pros than cons. He’s a big pedigreed guy with an absolutely killer slider (26 percent swinging-strike rate in 2018). And his 3.30 xFIP and 3.23 FIP in relation to that awful ERA portends to some bad luck last season. Despite employing an ordinary fastball and a curve that could use improvement, Bieber did manage over a strikeout-per-inning in 2018 (24.3 strikeout rate) and dominated right-handed bats with ease (.282 wOBA and a walk rate under three percent). Most importantly, Bieber gets the gift of taking the mound for a good chunk of his starts in a very weak AL Central division. I fully understand Ray’s cautious ranking (currently outside the top-50), but think he’s taking things too far. Bieber does have question marks and perhaps taking him at current ADP is a steep price. But the 23-year-old has an easy division and a bright future. Said future may very well begin in 2019.
By Ray Flowers
I don’t like following the sheep. Vlad eluded to that fact above, how everyone is just blindly following the Bieber-herd, potentially right off the cliff. All the names that Vlad listed are, to me, way better bets this season. The slider is legit, like top-shelf kinda stuff (agree with Vlad). The weak AL East will help Bieber. After tossing 173.1 innings in 2017 he upped that mark to 194.1 last season clearly showing that he should have no problem crossing the 180-inning barrier this season, so more agreement with Vlad. However, I’m just a little more concerned about some of the deficiencies that Vlad listed than he is. Biebers fastball sits at 93 mph-ish which is plenty of velocity, but overall the pitch is very blah (scientific term). The pitch was destroyed last season to the tune of a .374 wOBA (and a .310 average). Given that he threw the fastball on more than half his pitches last season, there should be some legit concern. Bieber also allowed nine homers on the pitch last season leading to a .510 SLG and .196 ISO mark. That’s all really bad folks. The pitch he threw 55 percent of the time was destroyed last season. The work against lefties was even worse than his rates with the fastball, so until he develops a way to get lefties out, it’s hard to see him taking the huge leap folks are thinking he will. Look at his numbers against lefties last season and note that they would make Manny Machado (.297/.367/.538 and a .377 wOBA) blush: .311/.362/.547 with a .383 wOBA. Realize what I’m saying. Every lefty that Bieber faced last season performed, as a whole, at a higher rate than Manny Machado. If that doesn’t cause folks to at least pump the breaks a bit, and I know it hasn’t to this point, then I don’t want to let them be the conductor of my train.
