As the offseason progresses, and the 2019 rookie class evolves, there’s a constant churn of draft prospect information. Some is good, some bad. This article will help clear the noise and get to the truth. There’s a lot of information out there, but only some of it is valuable. This article will also evolve and shift, based on personal research done through the season.
Now that some of the Shrine Game and Senior Bowl are finished, there’s time to address some of the more unique and highly talked about players in the draft class. While I’m a firm believer a prospect’s “true” stock never shifts throughout the process, it’s fun to play along with the news.
STOCK UP
Daniel Jones (QB, Duke) — Rumors have been swirling around Jones over the past week, so it’s worth addressing. Jones has been tied to the New York Giants 17th pick in round one. While that would seem high for his draft range, it’s never out of the question for NFL teams to reach on QBs with potential. Jones certainly has that, and certainly looked the part as a three-year starter for Duke. Despite lackluster production and an overall unimpressive resume, Jones has prototypical size (6 foot 5 and 221 pounds) and played in a power five conference. Scouts have long flirted with the idea of Jones as a top prospect, as the first round rumors have been around since his 2017 season, but it’s still one of those “I’ll see it when I believe it” type scenarios. Again, Jones’ profile is not comparable to other first round QB prospects over the last decade, and his lackluster accuracy (career 59.9 completion percentage) creates a lot of concerns over how he’ll translate. If he does go round one, it will likely be met with the same resistance Josh Allen felt when he went seventh overall in the 2018 draft.
Marquise Brown (WR, Oklahoma) — Evaluations on Brown are all over the place, and while he doesn’t currently have the profile of a first round prospect (injuries have derailed his draft process), some evaluators are holding strong on their round one projections. NFL.com‘s Daniel Jeremiah mentioned this week he doesn’t see Brown falling out of the first round. This seems unrealistic based on the factors that culminate in a WR prospect becoming a first-round selection, but perhaps teams have athletic testing results or information the public isn’t aware of. Brown isn’t a subtle prospect, his blazing speed and solid deep target skills do the talking. Brown weighing in at 166 pounds at the combine would already make him a big underdog to go in round one, even if he did test out in an elite fashion. Considering he didn’t test, there’s no evaluation process currently, with information available to the public, to evaluate Brown as a round one prospect.
Tyron Johnson (WR, Oklahoma State) — Johnson’s stock has been a rollercoaster ride throughout the last couple of months. After finishing off a solid but not spectacular junior season, Johnson declared for the NFL draft. While he was never a mega producer, it would make sense that being a former five-star recruit out of high school and playing for two high pedigree schools (LSU and Oklahoma State) would get him a combine invite. It didn’t. Johnson was passed over by some lackluster prospects for that combine invite, and after that point, it was tough to get excited about his NFL future. Despite all that, Johnson created some buzz about himself at his pro day, posting a 4.34 40 yard dash (pro day adjustments required). It’s still very tough to envision Johnson as anything beyond a day three (round six or seven) selection, but his performance today may have shifted him away from being undrafted.
Devine Ozigbo (RB, Nebraska) — Arguably the most shocking combine snub of the skill position players, Ozigbo proved why scouts were shocked at his pro day. After testing above average in the 40-yard dash (4.62 at 222 pounds), vertical (37 inches) and the broad jump (10 foot 4 inches), it’s almost certain he’ll find his way into the draft. It’s not impossible for a combine snub to get drafted. Just last year the Atlanta Falcons selected Ito Smith in the fourth round. Ozigbo has a ton of advantages on Smith as well, pertaining to size, athletic testing, and playing for a power five school. The precedent has been set for Ozigbo to get drafted, and based on scout’s reactions to his performances at the senior bowl, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him land in the top five rounds.
STOCK DOWN
Josh Jacobs (RB, Alabama) — Welp. Despite Jacobs not projecting as a player that would test out as an elite athlete, it was a disappointing pro day in Tuscaloosa. Jacobs posted a mediocre 40-yard dash (4.60), along with a terrible broad jump (9 foot 4 inches). While this is far from a crushing blow to his actual NFL future, it’s a huge issue for the perception and narrative that he has the potential to be drafted in round one. There’s an enormous difference between evaluating where a player will be drafted in the NFL draft and how good a prospect actually is. The NFL draft is a resume game; the players with the highest pedigree, athletic testing, production and least injury red-flags as well as off-field issues go the highest. Jacobs lack of production at the college level, along with mediocre athletic testing, will almost certainly slot him into a non-round one draft range. Again, this isn’t a death blow to Jacobs NFL potential, he certainly has redeeming qualities, and NFL scouts are high enough on him to warrant continued optimism. Becoming a second or third round selection is still a very positive indicator for future success, and Jacobs is (almost) assured to fit into that top three round range. The idea that the 2019 NFL draft won’t see an RB selected in round one is coming into focus.
C.J. Conrad (TE, Kentucky) — Conrad was flagged at the combine for heart issues and wasn’t allowed to participate. That’s the bad news. The good news? He was cleared for workouts by another doctor this week. The truth? We’ll have to wait until draft day. This type of situation happens every year, and it’s always unfortunate. There’s still a chance some team will take a risk on him, but getting medically flagged at the combine always tends to have a negative effect on draft stock. That would be especially true with heart-related issues. Conrad was a promising prospect in his final season but was far from a guaranteed selection even before the flag, so this hurts.
