Jonathan Villar is a somewhat limited hitter and a somewhat undisciplined runner on the base paths. That said, he figures to play daily for the Orioles, he is likely to continue to run no matter what the results are, and he qualifies up the middle in the infield. When talking fantasy baseball in 2019, that’s the profile of a guy you have to give serious consideration to rostering if you plan on winning this season.
27 years old
Bats/Throws: Both/Right
Height/Weight: 6’1”, 215 lbs.
Position: Second Base
THE NUMBERS
|
|
Level |
Games |
AVG |
HR |
RBI |
Runs |
SB |
OPS |
|
2014 |
MLB |
58 |
.243 |
1 |
8 |
26 |
18 |
.640 |
|
2015 |
MLB |
87 |
.209 |
7 |
27 |
31 |
17 |
.620 |
|
2016 |
MLB |
53 |
.284 |
2 |
11 |
18 |
7 |
.752 |
|
2016 |
MLB |
156 |
.285 |
19 |
63 |
92 |
62 |
.826 |
|
2017 |
MLB |
122 |
.241 |
11 |
40 |
49 |
23 |
.665 |
|
2018 |
MLB |
141 |
.260 |
14 |
46 |
54 |
35 |
.709 |
|
|
Per |
162 |
.256 |
14 |
51 |
71 |
43 |
.719 |
THE SKILLS
“They’ve told me, run whatever time you want,’’ Villar said, “but when you run, [think about] the situation of the game… That’s my game,’’ he said. “When you hit a base hit, steal second base and steal third base, that’s a triple for me. That’s happy for the team, too, because a ground ball with one out, that’s an RBI.”
So, there you have it. Villar is telling you that he’s going to run, and run and run.
Some data.
Villar has a career best of 62 steals in a single season.
Villar has a total of 120 bases the last three years, tied four third in baseball with Dee Gordon. The two ahead of him on the list are Billy Hamilton (151) and Trea Turner (122).
Villar has stolen at least 23 bases each of the last three seasons. He is one of five men to have done that. The others are: Gordon, Hamilton, Turner and Mookie Betts.
Amongst players with 1,500 plate appearances the last three years, Villar’s 6.0 Speed Score is 16th in baseball.
Last season Villar led baseball with a 4.6 mark in the wSB category which is the estimate of the amount of runs that a player adds to his team by his ability to steal bases.
Villar will run, and run a lot, and in the game of baseball in 2019 that means something. However, he just doesn’t get on base enough to set the steal flor at 60, 50 or even 40 without at least some pause. For his career he has a .325 OBP which is about a tenth above the league average (that’s also the number he posted in 2018). It’s not a bad level per se, but it also isn’t overly exciting, and at least he is extremely consistent with an OBP of .323 against lefties and .326 against righties in his career. He will need to continue to run a lot, and it seems likely he will given that he’s the owner of a Stolen Base Opportunity rate of at least 30 percent the last five seasons.
Can Villar hit?
In six years he’s hit .284 or better twice. He’s also hit .256 for his career and over the last two years he’s hit .251. Does he have a chance to hit .284 this season? It seems unlikely. Here is why.
He doesn’t walk enough, and he strikes out too much. Pretty simple really. For his career he owns a 0.33 BB/K ratio which is below the league average last season (0.38). He also has posted a BB/K ratio the last two seasons of 0.26. He’s posted a K-rate over 25 percent each of the last three seasons, and it’s unlikely that he will cut that mark down in 2019.
Villar owns a career 20.0 percent line drive rate which is slightly below the league average.
Last season the league had a 35.3 hard-hit ball rate. Not once in his career has Villar posted a mark that high. In fact, the last two seasons the mark has been 32 percent, well below the average.
Villar has hit .262 against lefties and .254 against righties in his career.
Not a single piece of that says “.284 hitter,” so no, he won’t hit .264 this season.
He hit 19 homers three seasons ago. Is it possible he will hit 20 homers this season?
If you were to look at his homer to fly ball ratio then the answer would be – maybe. Villar owns a 16.7 HR/FB mark for his career. The last three years he’s been better than that at 19.6, 19.0 and 17.9 percent. That’s actually a higher level than most folks would think I would assume. Despite that fact, it’s still unlikely that he will drive 20 pelotas into the seats. Here’s why.
Villar doesn’t lift the baseball, like, at all.
For his career Villar has a 56.5 percent ground ball rate.
The last four seasons Villar’s lowest ground ball rate is 55.6 percent.
The result is that Villar owns a 23.4 percent fly ball rate, about 12 percent below the league average. Not even a quarter of his batted balls go into the air, so it’s gonna be extremely difficult for him to reach 20 homers for the first time. In fact, it’s flat out unlikely he will. Amongst the 214 players who had at least 400 plate appearances last season, here are the men with a GB/FB ratio of 2.41 or higher, the career mark of Villar, who hit 20 homers last season: Ian Desmond. That’s it. Further, Desmond and Eric Hosmer were the only two players with a 2.25 or better mark who hit 16 or more homers. You hit that many balls on the ground, and it’s just extremely difficult to be a man with significant pop.
Villar will play daily, more on that below, and sitting in a top-2 spot in the order gives him an extremely good shot at his second season of 55 runs. If he doesn’t score at least 20 more than that, I think it would be safe to say his season could be classified as a failure, even with the potentially anemic lineup around him.
In terms of runs batted in, taking a spot near the top of the Orioles’ order figure to curtail his run production with the bat, especially since the lineup is, to be kind, pretty weak. His career mark with RISP includes a .762 OPS which is better than his overall mark of .719.
PLAYING TIME
Villar was set to play shortstop this season for the Orioles after appearing there 18 times last season. The Orioles then went out and signed, arguably, the worst full-time player in baseball in Alcides Escobar to man the shortstop spot leaving Villar to play second base full-time. Jonathan will enter the year only qualifying at second in the majority of leagues, but keep an eye on Escobar and his struggles as it’s certainly possible that Villar will be seeing time at shortstop at some point.
In terms of batting order, Villar seems likely to hit first or second depending on how the club wants to handle Cedric Mullins. Villar will see tons of plate appearances, and will likely run with wild abandon.
The last two seasons Villar has missed a couple of weeks of action, first with a lower back issues and then with a thumb injury. The Orioles have nothing to lose by playing Villar until the proverbial wheels fall off.
AVERAGE DRAFT POSITION DATA
As of this writing, here is the ADP data for Villar (since February 1st).
|
|
|
|
|
|
Overall |
Position Rank |
|
79.1 |
7th |
The Fantasy Guru Rankings can be found by clicking on the link.
CONCLUSION
Run Forrest, run. That will be the key to Villar’s season. His batting average, homer total and runs batted in marks figure to just keep pace with the league average. He will generate his fantasy value with his wheels – leading to runs scored and steals. Given the dire state of running in 2019, even if his overall game is muted, if he steals 40+ bases there will be tremendous value produced by Villar. Add in that he has a bit more pop than most guys who run, and that he qualifies up the middle, you can see why his ADP is so high this season, though it must be pointed out that a repeat of last seasons overall production is possible which would make his cost a wee bit rich.
10-Team Mixed: He’s a starter, though his batting average drain is something that you should plan on compensating for in a league this shallow.
12/15 Team Mixed: The deeper the league, the less concerned you should be able the batting average while at the same time you should be more concerned with the steals. Villar is costly, but if he plays daily he should live up to the price, even if he does it in a less than across the board manner.
AL-Only League: The skill set. The hope. You know the deal here. It’s not like there are five other second baseman you would feel better about.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
