As the first week of free agency comes to a close, it’s worth reviewing the action that went down. If unaware, we’ve been keeping up-to-date tabs on all the top free agency signings with our Free Agency Tracker. That’s a great resource for tracking all signings in one spot, but let’s get into some analysis! The name of the game in this piece will be to review the top signings and provide a fantasy spin on what the future will hold. What will the future of the player in question look like? Also, what will the effect be on their new team and the one they left behind?
Quarterback
Nick Foles (Jaguars) – Foles signed a four-year, $88 million deal. The Jaguars have since released Blake Bortles and created a scenario where Foles is, at the very least, the quarterback of the near future. Foles has had an erratic career to say the least, but his last two seasons with the Eagles have created optimism. Foles hops onto a team that will continue to be run-first (as long as Leonard Fournette is healthy) and has some large question marks surrounding it’s receiving options. Foles picks up much more value in super flex formats as opposed to start one QB leagues, as his fantasy upside will be limited by his offense. There is upside, though, if 2018 second round pick D.J. Chark can develop and Marqise Lee can return to health after losing his 2018 season to a torn ACL. The Eagles obviously hated to let Foles go, but with Carson Wentz as the starting QB, it made no sense for them to sign him to the money the open market was willing to throw in his direction.
Teddy Bridgewater (Saints) – Bridgewater signed a one-year deal (worth up to $12.5 million) with the New Orleans Saints. This is a solid move for both parties. The Saints are in win-now mode and have a 40-year-old Drew Brees at the helm. Bridgewater gets another chance at sitting behind a hall of fame quarterback and the Saints get assurance they have a QB with starter experience just in case anything happens to Brees. Bridgewater has only thrown 25 passing attempts since the 2015 season, but if the Saints are willing to keep him around, then he’s a notable name for deeper super-flex formats.
Running Back
Le’Veon Bell (Jets) – Bell signed a four-year, $52.5 million ($35 million guaranteed) contract with the New York Jets. This is obviously a huge deal for fantasy purposes. The 27-year-old running back has some high mileage (two seasons with 350 or more touches) seasons and major injuries on his resume, but the talent is undeniable. The Jets need productive players around their young QB Sam Darnold to help his transition, and this is a nice start. The bigger issues come with the passing game and receiving options. Relying on a bunch of late round and un-drafted players to sustain offensive production over multiple seasons is a losing bet, and that’s how the Jets are currently constructed. While Bell is arguably a bit overvalued right now (currently a round one best ball ADP), he’s certainly a player that will be handed a feature role in 2019, and a candidate for another 350 or more-touch season.
Tevin Coleman (49ers) – Coleman signed a two-year, $8.5 million contract with the San Francisco 49ers. This deal comes as a bit of a surprise, as Coleman was expected to garner more interest on the open market. Despite that, he couldn’t have found a better home to optimize his skills. Coleman was an effective player throughout his first four seasons, but it’s become obvious the Falcons didn’t see him as a featured player, and neither did the open market. He’s likely to be used in a 170 to 200 touch per season role, and that can work out for him if he’s valued appropriately. Over the last three seasons Coleman has accumulated 941 (2016), 927 (2017) and 1,076 (2018) yards from scrimmage, and a total of 29 touchdowns. While those types of totals aren’t not appealing compared to featured RBs, there’s certainly value to it in fantasy football. Coleman will battle with Jerrick McKinnon and Matt Breida for touches, and barring injuries (likely), should create a three-man rotation. The Falcons will be in the market for a RB in the 2019 class, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see them spend a second or third round pick like they did on Coleman in 2015.
Mark Ingram (Ravens) – Ingram signed a three-year, $15 million contract with the Baltimore Ravens. After eight years in New Orleans, Ingram has found a new home. Ingram enters his age 30 season with relatively low mileage for a multiple season starter. Ingram does have 1,549 total touches, but he’s never had a season with more than 300 and has never had a major injury. Ingram should slot right into a featured role for the Ravens and see great volume behind a solid offensive line and a QB in Lamar Jackson who will create significant running lanes. While it won’t be close to the type of offense he was in previously, the volume and unique offense could bring a different type of upside to the table. Ingram is a tentative buy (in my humble opinion), and someone to invest in from a season long and dynasty standpoint. 275 to 300 touches would seem likely, and even if most of them aren’t receptions, he should sustain himself as a low-end RB1 in 2019.
Carlos Hyde (Chiefs) – Hyde signed a one year, $2.8 million contract with the Kansas City Chiefs. This is one of the tougher to decipher signings of free agency. Hyde was cut from the Jaguars and was signed quickly by a team with an elite fantasy situation for running backs. While Damien Williams is the incumbent, he’s one of the least qualified (resume-wise) starting RBs in the NFL. Despite struggling in his short stint with the Jaguars, Hyde has had plenty of success previously in his NFL career. After dealing with multiple injuries in his first two seasons, Hyde put back-to-back seasons with 1,100 or more yards from scrimmage together in 2016 and 2017 (1,151 in 2016, 1,288 in 2017) with the 49ers. Hyde has carried the load before, and if the Chiefs don’t bring a high pedigree RB into the fold in the 2019 draft, could be one of the best upside RB plays of the offseason.
Latavius Murray (Saints) – Murray signed a four-year, $14.4 million contract with the New Orleans Saints. Murray will fit directly into the Mark Ingram role in the Saints offense. This should be an easy adjustment for Murray, as he spent the last two seasons in Minnesota playing this role. Murray is a very capable second RB, and while Alvin Kamara will be the starter, the Saints have displayed over the last decade there’s plenty of fantasy production to go around. A 10 or more-touchdown season isn’t out of the question for Murray, and neither is 200 touches. Murray has the sixth most yards from scrimmage (4,581) of any RB selected in sixth round in NFL history, and is clearly an outlier for his draft position at this stage.
Wide Receiver
Golden Tate (Giants) – Tate signed a four-year, $37.5 million contract with the New York Giants. Tate has proven himself to be a special WR, and while he’s heading to an organization that’s been butchering their offseason, that point remains. Eli Manning is certainly on his last legs, and Tate is coming off a weird age 30 season, but there should be plenty of targets and opportunity in New York in 2019. There’s a lot of debate about where Tate fits into the Giants system. While he was used primarily as a slot receiver in Detroit, that doesn’t mean that’s ALL he can do, it’s just what he does best. Between him and Sterling Shepard, there’s no debating they’ll be taking up similar areas of the field, but there’s no reason to think they can’t sustain themselves running some routes on the outside. Tate should be able to continue his solid fantasy contributions, and lead Giants in receiving yards over the next couple of seasons. Tate is an interesting buy-low in dynasty formats and could out-perform current expectations in season-long as well.
Devin Funchess (Colts) – Funchess signed a one year, $13 million contract with the Indianapolis Colts. The Funchess signing feels very similar to the Eric Ebron signing this time last offseason. Both players were top two round selections, and while producing in a reasonable fashion, were widely viewed as busts entering free agency. Funchess is what he is as a fantasy and real-life asset. The big bodied, former Michigan tight end excels in winning jump-ball and contested catch situations. Funchess had a really solid 2017 season with the Panthers, producing 840 yards and 8 touchdowns on 111 targets. The biggest issue for Funchess was that the Panthers decided to go in a different direction with their offense. Over the previous two drafts there was a MAJOR focus on after-the-catch and speed-based receiving options. Between Christian McCaffrey, Curtis Samuel and D.J. Moore, the Panthers spoke loudly with their actions, and by the end of the 2018 season, Funchess was phased out of the offense. The Colts were in dire need of solid weapons, and they made have bought low on an interesting piece.
Tyrell Williams (Raiders) – Williams signed a four-year, $44 million contract with the Oakland Raiders. Williams is coming off a three-year regression with the San Diego Chargers. After seemingly breaking out in 2016 with a 1,059 receiving yard and seven TD season, it appeared Williams was headed towards a high-end trajectory. However, the Chargers quickly made it known that wouldn’t be happening after drafting WR Mike Williams seventh overall in 2017. Williams dropped from 119 targets to 69 in 2017 despite (Mike) Williams missing most of the season. He regressed slightly in 2018 with 65 targets, and by the end of the year had clearly been phased out of future plans. With that said, Williams brings an interesting skill set to the table, and one that opposing defenses must account for. Williams is highly athletic and should provide solid but inconsistent fantasy upside as a deep threat.
Jamison Crowder (Jets) – Crowder signed a two-year, $18 million contract with the New York Jets. Crowder battled injuries for most of the last two seasons but is handed a golden opportunity to thrive with a young QB (Sam Darnold) on the Jets. While it’s tough to project what way young quarterbacks will go, Crowder has put himself in the position to be a starting slot receiver for a potentially emerging QB. Crowder deserves a mulligan for his 2018 season. Even though he technically “played” nine games, he was clearly hindered by injuries the entire time, and has a big enough sample size to trust he’ll bounce back. Crowder doesn’t bring elite upside to the table but could find himself in a similar role to what he saw in 2016 and 2017 with the Kirk Cousins-led Redskins. The Redskins shouldn’t have too much of an issue replacing Crowder’s production, as he wasn’t much of an impact player in 2018 anyway.
John Brown (Bills) – Brown signed a three-year, $27 million contract with the Buffalo Bills. Brown has seen it all through his first five seasons. After breaking out in a big way in his first two seasons (culminating in 1,003 receiving yards in 2015), Brown suffered through a multitude of injuries throughout his final two seasons in Arizona. After posting just 299 receiving yards in 2017, Brown found a new home in Baltimore. After the first half of the season Brown looked like a major steal (three games with 92 or more receiving yards in his first seven) but regressed significantly as the season went along and the offense changed (Less than 30 receiving yards in each of his final nine games). On the Bills, Brown should continue to have incredibly high variance box scores, but there’s no denying the potential upside with the cannon-armed Josh Allen.
Adam Humphries (Titans) – Humphries signed a four-year, $36 million contract with the Tennessee Titans. After coming off an enormous third season (for him), Humphries hit the free agent market and secured a significant amount of money. There’s no doubt the Titans needed an upgrade in their receiving group, and Humphries can fill a lot of holes in the slot for them. Ultimately, however, this kills a lot of future fantasy upside. The Titans will once again be a run-first offense and have Corey Davis as the main fantasy relevant weapon. There could be games where the Titans are forced to throw in comeback situations, but generally speaking, this isn’t going to be a high-volume slot role. The Buccaneers recorded the second most passing yards of all-time in 2018 (5,358) and were in for a significant regression regardless of if Humphries left or not.
Donte Moncrief (Steelers) – Moncrief signed a two-year contract with the Pittsburgh Steelers (still waiting on details). The Steelers have a fascination with former highly drafted WRs who are highly athletic (Darius Heyward-Hayward-Bey and Justin Hunter are others that came to mind). Moncrief is what he is at this stage in his career. A big-bodied-deep threat who will make some big plays here and there. Moncrief is certainly a starting-caliber talent, and a high-upside player in the right situation, but he does not cause much concern for Juju Smith-Schuster and the developing James Washington. The Jaguars are a work in progress at the WR position, and after investing a second-round selection in D.J. Chark in 2018, it would make sense to let Moncrief go in the hopes he emerges.
Tight End
Jesse James (Lions) – James signed a four-year, $25 million contract with the Detroit Lions. James isn’t a flashy signing, but with the Lions TE position in a blatantly weak position, he could fill in nicely. James is a big-bodied tight end who can thrive underneath and in the red-zone. He never received much fantasy opportunity as a Steeler because of the talent around him but could emerge as a weakly weapon in the Lions offense. There’s a lot of question-marks moving forward in Detroit, specifically with the offense, but if James can find himself in the role Eric Ebron was in from 2015-to-2017, James could be a nice late round acquisition in fantasy football.
