Listen, obviously this fantasy AAF doesn’t have the same buzz as the NFL but as I wrote in this space last week, money is money. If you enjoy making more money, I’m telling you straight up that you better jump on board this train because I am white hot in DFS AAF right now.
Over the last five weeks that I’ve posted my DFS AAF writeup here at Fantasy Guru, the optimal lineup that I post at the end of the article has cashed across the board (cash & GPP) four weeks including each of the last three weeks. What’s more is that we’re ringing up higher and higher totals every week.
For the season, the optimal DFS AAF lineup has scored 51.2 (was a very low scoring week), 18.6 (lost), 69.1, 83.6 and last week hit the century mark with 100.2. Here is the lineup with point totals according to Fanball’s scoring system:
QB – Aaron Murray, Atlanta – 21.5
RB – Trent Richardson, Birmingham – 15.8
WR – Rashad Ross, Arizona – 25.6
FLEX – Rannell Hall, Orlando –5.3
FLEX – De’Mornay Pierson-El, Salt Lake –23.0
FLEX – De’Marcus Ayers, San Antonio– 9.0
TOTAL: 100.2
The formula for this success is quite easy. Use either Orlando QB Garrett Gilbert or the lowest priced QB against Memphis for your quarterback. Plug in Birmingham RB Trent Richardson, who does nothing except score TD’s. Start your WR corps out with the always underpriced Orlando Apollos receiver Rannell Hall, sprinkle in whoever Atlanta CB Carlos Merritt is covering and finish it off with two value options who will touch the ball the most. Then sit back and collect your cash. It’s literally that easy.
I’m seriously considering making this my article opening for the rest of the season because I just don’t see it changing much nor do I see enough others putting in the time to beat our lineup builds. We’re not going to get rich playing DFS AAF it appears because there isn’t enough high dollar contests, but we certainly are going to be able to build our bankroll for the others sports that will make us rich.
Consider this and the next four weeks as batting practice or training camp for your bankroll. Let’s get to it!
Adding in an Injury Report to the writeup this week. Please check the inactives before locking in your lineups this week.
Memphis: Dontez Byrd, WR (did not practice Weds or Thurs) – Questionable
Salt Lake: None
Arizona: Jhurell Pressley, RB & Rashad Ross, WR (limited on Thursday) – Probable
Orlando:None
San Antonio: Cole Hunt, TE (did not practice Weds or Thurs) – Doubtful; Evan Rodriguez, TE (did not practice Thurs due to illness) – Probable
Atlanta: Lawrence Pittman, RB (did not practice Weds or Thurs), Ervin Phillips, WR (limited practice Weds, did not practice Thurs) – Doubtful
Birmingham: Brandon Ross, RB (did not practice Thursday) – Questionable; Amba Etta-Tawo, WR (limited practice Weds & Thurs) – Questionable
San Diego: None
Remember that the spot to play DFS AAF is over at Fanball.
Here is the DFS AAF Breakdown for Week 6:
Memphis Express at Salt Lake Stallions – Saturday, 4pm ET
Memphis
- QB Zach Mettenberger has just three rushing yards in his two starts this year but has scored a rushing TD in both of them. He’s also thrown for the two highest passing totals for Express QB’s this season in those starts.
- Salt Lake has surrendered the third most fantasy points to QB’s this season (87.1) and has surrendered the most passing touchdowns (7) on the year.
- RB Zac Stacy is fourth in the AAF in rushing yards (273), second in carries (75) and third in fantasy points among RB’s (63.7) this season.
- Memphis RB Sherman Badie was put in IR on Monday with a knee injury. This will give both Zac Stacy and pass catching RB Terrence Magee more snaps and touches moving forward.
- Salt Lake has surrendered the second most fantasy points to WR’s (181.9), the most receptions (67), third most receiving yards (838) and second most receiving TD’s (4) in the AAF this season.
- WR Reece Horn has the fourth best CB matchup this week going up against Salt Lake CB Will Davis who has surrendered the fifth most yards per route covered this season.
Salt Lake
- The Stallions offensive line is actually the best in the AAF at pass protecting according to PFF but just 5thbest run blocking.
- Memphis has surrendered the most fantasy points to QB’s (99.2), third most passing yards (1148) and second most passing TD’s (6) this season.
- With RB Branden Oliver on IR, Joel Bouagnon has the backfield snaps and touches on lockdown with Terrell Newby mixing in as the third down/pass catching back on occasion. Bouagnon is second in the AAF with 5 rushing TD’s this season.
- Memphis has given up the second most fantasy points (139.3), the most rushing yards (552) and second most TD’s (7) to RB’s this season.
- WR De’Mornay Pierson-El has been a beast in recent weeks and is now up to third in the league in receptions (23), fourth in the league in receiving yards (279), sixth in targets (30) and third in fantasy points among WR’s (62.3) this season.
- Pierson-El also has the second-best CB matchup in the AAF this week lining up against Memphis Terrell Bonds who rates as the second worst CB in the league according to PFF.
Best Plays
- Joel Bouagnon, RB, Salt Lake – $6400
- De’Mornay Pierson-El, WR, Sal Lake – $6000
- Zac Stacy, RB, Memphis – $6500
- Terrence Magee, RB, Memphis – $3100
- Reece Horn, WR, Memphis – $5000
Arizona Hotshots at Orlando Apollos – Saturday, 8pm ET
Arizona
- QB John Wolford is second in the AAF in passing yards (1026), first in passing TD’s (10) and second in fantasy points scored (102.9) this season. But after a super-hot start he is just as many interceptions (6) as TD passes (6) over his last four games.
- Orlando has given up the most receptions and receiving yards (207) to RB’s (25) this season.
- The Apollos are the third worst defense against the run according to PFF and worst pass rush in the AAF this season.
- WR Josh Huff was placed on IR last week with a knee injury. Fellow WR Richard Mullaney is also still ailing and likely to miss this game. This gives a boost to Freddie Martino who saw seven targets and hauled in four passes last week against San Antonio.
- Hotshots WR Rashad Ross ranks fourth in the AAF in targets (32), second in receptions (24), second in receiving yards (401), first in TD receptions (6) and first in fantasy points among WR’s (106.1). Ross has not had a single game under 16.7 fantasy points this season.
Orlando
- Orlando is by far the highest scoring team in the AAF putting up 29.8 points per game. They’ve also given up the second least points this season with just 15.4 per game.
- The Apollos have the second best run blocking offensive line and second best overall offensive line in the league according to PFF.
- QB Garrett Gilbert leads the league in completions (93), passing yards (1357), yards per pass attempt (9.2) and fantasy points (117) this season. He’s also second in TD passes (8) and completion percentage (62.8%) this year.
- The Arizona Hotshots have surrendered the third most fantasy points (121.6) and second most rushing TD’s to RB’s this season.
- WR Charles Johnson is leading the AAF in targets (42), receptions (29), receiving yards (493) and air yards (549) this season. He i8s also second in fantasy points to WR’s with 97.3.
Best Plays
- Garrett Gilbert, QB, Orlando – $7100
- Rashad Ross, WR, Arizona – $7600
- Freddie Martino, WR, Arizona – $3500
- Charles Johnson, WR, Orlando – $8000
- D’Ernest Johnson, RB, Orlando – $5700
San Antonio Commanders at Atlanta Legends – Sunday, 4pm ET
San Antonio
- The Commanders are playing their fourth consecutive road game this week and have won their last two by a combined five points. At 3-2 they are tied for the Western Conference lead with the San Diego Fleet.
- QB Logan Woodside leads the AAF in pass attempts (150), is second in completions (82), third in passing yards (1025), second in air yards (1467) and third in fantasy points for QB’s (66.7).
- Atlanta has surrendered the most fantasy points to RB’s (154.6), third most rushing yards (536), most rushing TD’s (8) and second most receiving yards to RB’s (200) this season.
- RB Kenneth Farrow has been a key factor in the Commanders last two road wins. Farrow is averaging 21-88-.5 rushing and 15.5 fantasy points over the last two weeks. Farrow had a salary decrease of $500 this week making him a very affordable $6100.
- Despite giving up the least fantasy points to WR’s this season, the Atlanta Legends defense grades out as the worst secondary in the AAF according to PFF.
- All three starting WR’s for San Antonio have plus CB matchups this week. Mekale McKay, who is third in the league in receiving yards has a +13 advantage over CB Doran Grant, Greg Ward Jr has a +19 advantage over CB Desmond Lawrence and slot receiver De’Marcus Ayers has the best matchup in the entire league with a +64 matchup against lowly CB Carlos Merritt this week.
Atlanta
- The Legends have the second-best pass blocking offensive line and third best overall offensive line according to PFF’s ratings.
- QB Aaron Murray has led the Legends to two straight victories while averaging 280 yards passing, 34 yards rushing and 18.6 fantasy points per game in those victories.
- San Antonio surrenders the second most fantasy points to QB’s (94.3), the most passing yards (1278) and second most passing TD’s (6) on the season.
- RB Tarean Folston was a beast last week against Memphis while racking up 17 touches, 106 total yards, 2 TD’s and 28.6 fantasy points. He’s still splitting time with Brandon Radcliff but it appears as though Denard Robinson and Lawrence Pittman are being kept on the backburner for now.
- San Antonio has given up the most fantasy points to WR’s (183.7), most receiving yards (907), most air yards (1373) and most receiving TD’s this season.
- Atlanta WR Ervin Phillips get a nice CB matchup as he is going up against San Antonio CB Zack Sanchez, who is the fourth worst rated CB in the AAF according to PFF.
Best Plays
- Kenneth Farrow, RB, San Antonio – $6100
- Aaron Murray, QB, Atlanta – $6600
- Mekale McKay, WR, San Antonio – $5800
- De’Marcus Ayers, WR, San Antonio – $4600
- Tarean Folston, RB, Atlanta – $5800
Birmingham Iron at San Diego Fleet – Sunday, 8pm ET
Birmingham
- Birmingham replaced struggling QB Luis Perez early in last week’s game against Orlando with former University of Washington QB Keith Price. Price has received most of the first team reps in practice this week and is widely believed to start against the Fleet this week.
- Birmingham has the best run blocking offensive line and best overall offensive line in the league according to PFF.
- RB Trent Richardson has scored a TD in every game so far this season and has 8 TD’s on the season. He is the highest scoring RB and non-QB in the league this year. But he also is averaging just 2.4 YPC.
- San Diego has given up the most receptions to RB’s (25) so far this season.
- The Fleet have the third worst coverage rating according to PFF so far this season. They have also given up the third most fantasy points (164.4), second most receiving yards (851) and second most receptions (62) in the AAF this season.
- New QB Keith Price appeared to have a lot of chemistry with WR L’Damian Washington after entering the game last week. Washington received five targets but only caught 2-32 from Price but this is in line with his recent target increase over the last few weeks.
San Diego
- San Diego is second in the AAF in scoring this year and are averaging 27 points per game over their last three games, two of which were wins.
- Mike Bercovici is the Fleet’s starting QB for the rest of the season and led them to a massive back and forth comeback win last week against Salt Lake. Bercovici threw for 304 yards and a TD in the victory.
- Birmingham has surrendered the most rushing yards (596) to running backs this season.
- While Ja’Quan Gardner continues to serve as the Fleet’s RB1, preseason starter Bishop Sankey was active last week, played 32.8% of snaps and received seven touches. I’d expect Sankey to get more time going forward which could significantly cut into Gardner’s production.
- WR Dontez Ford is the fourth highest graded receiver according to PFF this season. Ford is fifth in the league with 253 receiving yards and eighth in fantasy points among WR’s with 43.3 this year.
Best Plays
- Trent Richardson, RB, Birmingham – $7500
- Mike Bercovici, QB, San Diego – $5300
- L’Damian Washington, WR, Birmingham – $4000
- Dontez Ford, WR, San Diego – $6300
- Bishop Sankey, RB, San Diego – $4100
My #1 Lineup
QB – Garrett Gilbert, Orlando – $7100
RB – Trent Richardson, Birmingham – $7500
WR – De’Mornay Pierson-El, Salt Lake – $6000
FLEX – Tarean Folston, Atlanta – $5800
FLEX – De’Marcus Ayers, San Antonio – $ 4600
FLEX – L’Damian Washington, Birmingham – $ 4000
AAF BETTING
Orlando Apollos -10
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