Ray Flowers and Vlad Sedler take counter positions on a single player, one for, one against. Which one of our experts do you agree with? Does either strike a knockout blow? Is there a TKO? Is there a need for another round? Two or our best analysts give their thoughts on a player for the upcoming season allowing you to be the judge as to which side makes the stronger argument, for or against the player. If you want to discuss this, or anything else further, spend some time in our Live Chat where we do our best to answer any questions that you might have.
David Price
By Ray Flowers
David Price is no longer a star, and don’t mistake anything you are about to read as some supportive declaration that Price will return to 2015 levels. He ain’t doing that. In truth, he may not even be better than he was last season. Still, 16 wins, a 3.58 ERA and 177 punchouts are numbers that any squad would be happy to have. Let’s not forget that he also posted a 1.14 WHIP which is the 9th year in a row that the mark has been 1.20 or lower. He has walked a few more batters of late, but even the 2.56 per nine rate from last season isn’t bad at all. As for the punchouts, he’s hovered right around one per inning the past five seasons, including last season. He did see his swinging strike rate drop to 9.6 percent, the first time in five years the mark was below 10.6, so with advancing age we’re likely witnessing a slow slide from Price. He also threw a first pitch strike just 62 percent of the time last season, a seven-year low, and that might help to explain why his swinging rate on pitches outside the strike zone dropped to a six year low at 31 percent. Price is stable. If that’s the worst thing you can say about him, is it that bad? At the point in the draft that he’s going off draft boards, he’s a perfectly reasonable addition. If you prefer to play the upside game, I get it, but do you really feel more comfortable with a somewhat injury Mike Foltynewicz or a hoping to fulfill his potential Luis Castillo? Again, I can understand making that argument, but I would take the other side. When I’m talking about a guy that will likely be drafted in the first 100 or so picks, I’m not quite ready to be taking risks. I’d rather take a stable arm at that point of the draft and to start my prospecting a bit later on. That’s how I play it. I bet Vlad will suggest playing it a bit differently.
By Vlad Sedler
The best part about fantasy baseball and how deep our drafts go, is that we’re never forced to pick someone to grace our roster whom we don’t want. Most formats utilize eight to ten active pitcher spots, but there are dozens upon dozens of options for us to choose from. Price is just one of those guys I haven’t owned in the last few years and don’t plan to this season. First, let’s talk price (no pun intended). He is the 27th starting pitcher off the board in NFBC drafts this spring (104 ADP over the last two weeks) while I have him ranked as the 45th best starter. A former first overall draft selection, Price turns 34 this year and just isn’t the same stud he was earlier in his career with Tampa. He has averaged a strikeout per inning in three seasons with Boston (though in 2017, just 74 IP) and hasn’t dipped above the 4.00 ERA mark since his rookie season (4.42 in 2009). For all intents and purposes, he is one of those ‘safe and boring’ picks we can lean on in a pinch. The problem is that that 104 ADP is a bit rich for my blood, especially for a guy who pitches out of the AL East. His fastball velocity has been down below 93-mph after firing it at around a 94-95 mph clip for several seasons. Price ditched his slider many years ago and is essentially a three-pitch guy (fastball/cutter/change-up). He’s always been steady in terms of giving up hard contact – it used to be elite at around 25 percent but has hovered between 32 and 35 percent over his last three seasons, which is about league average. I’m more of an upside drafter when it comes to mid-round starting pitching. That’s because I usually have two solid anchor aces to help with ratios. To each their own, but I’d rather dabble in the next tier (Darvish, Bieber, Pivetta, Tanaka) than Mr. Price this season.
