One of the most important indicators of future success for NFL prospects is draft position. If you’re skeptical of that fact, check this out. While where a player goes on draft day isn’t the be-all and end-all of their career, historical trends suggest, the earlier a player is drafted, the higher their likelihood of NFL success will be. Considering that general rule, and considering things like Best Ball drafts and pre-draft rookie drafts create a need for foresight on rookies, projecting draft position in an accurate manner is valuable.
Finding accurate ways to evaluate prospects for the NFL draft isn’t an easy process, but it is possible. The NFL leaves behind a lot of clues pertaining to what they look for, and over three decades of drafts in the seven-round format, many trends have evolved. While there’s a lot of factors to account for, and injury/off-field red flags are sometimes impossible to register, it’s a plausible process. The general perception of the NFL draft is a prospect’s stock shifts wildly throughout the months before the draft, but based on historical thresholds, this simply isn’t the case. A player’s value directly correlates to their production profile and how they test out athletically. While there are certainly nuance and differing scenarios, almost all factors are set after the combine. Two NFL teams may value a prospect in an incredibly different light, but over 32 teams, over seven rounds, over decades, there’s a balance.
As mentioned in 1.0, I’m going to be updating periodically when there are clusters of prospects who had pro days or had deeper research done on them. For this week, I added some prospects who had pro days or weren’t on previously because they didn’t participate in the combine.
PLAYERS ADDED/CHANGED
Darwin Thompson (RB, Utah State) – Thompson is a player who didn’t receive a combine invite but is at least worth evaluating from a draft position perspective. Thompson averaged 6.8 yards per rushing attempt (on 153 attempts) and 15.3 yards per reception (on 23 receptions). That type of efficiency, even in a smaller conference, will get the attention of NFL teams, combine invite or not. His initial tag will be “UDFA.”
Devine Ozigbo (RB, Nebraska) – After catching some positive praise at the Senior Bowl, it was a bit of a surprise for Ozigbo to not receive a combine invite. Ozigbo dazzled in his pro day earlier this week, posting a 37-inch vertical and a 4.54 40-yard dash (adjust accordingly). Despite the lack of a combine invite, Ozibo brings enough to the table to warrant a middle-round selection. His tag is a “5th.”
Marquise Brown (WR, Oklahoma) – Let’s be honest, I transferred over the combine lists, and since he didn’t test, he slipped my mind in the first edition. Shout out to @mikas7411 for reaching out! Brown, despite the injury concerns, is almost assuredly going to be a top three round selection. And while he’s tagged with a “2nd-3rd” for now, that could rise, depending on what the media picks up on as the draft gets closer.
Olamide Zaccheaus (WR, Virginia) – Zaccheaus was one of the more exciting pre-combine wide receivers to evaluate. His combination of rushing and receiving production in the ACC is quite intriguing, and it’s unfortunate he didn’t get a chance to compete at the combine. Despite that, there’s enough on Zaccheaus’ resume to warrant a late-round draft selection, so he’s tagged with a “6th-7th” for now.
Penny Hart (WR, Georgia State) – Hart is another wide receiver who was incredibly intriguing before his combine snub. His freshman year breakout, along with consistency throughout his career, created an interesting production profile. Unfortunately, being from a non-power five conference AND not getting a combine invite are two negative indicators which usually keep prospects from finding a home on draft day. Hart receives a “UDFA” tag for now.
David Montgomery (RB, Iowa State) – A slight accounting change here. While Montgomery disappointed at the combine, his power five production profile is solid enough to warrant a top three round selection. Montgomery has shifted from a “4th-5th” tag to simply a “4th.”
QUARTERBACK
RUNNING BACK
WIDE RECEIVER
TIGHT END
FINAL NOTES
As mentioned in a few areas, there are still medical and off-field leaks to be monitored. Every year, there are a few prospects who slide significantly because of an injury deemed degenerative, which gets flagged by combine doctors. Sometimes those reports don’t get out until a week before the draft; sometimes they happen the week after the combine. That information gets out when the interested parties determine it should. It’s important context. There will be a few updates with tweaks as the process goes along, but an initial update is a good base to use for now.
