A former top-25 MLB prospect, Jorge Soler has never lived up to his early billing. Every time he starts to look like he’s ready to take that step, some injury rears it’s ugly head threatening to derail his career completely. He’s getting one last chance this spring to prove to the Royals that he’s worthy of a spot in the starting lineup, and he’s been tearing it up in Spring Training (.297/.366/.703 with four homers and 11 RBI in 13 games). Will this finally be the year that he asserts himself in the fantasy game?
27 years old
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Height/Weight: 6’4”, 230 lbs
Position:
THE NUMBERS
|
|
Level |
Games |
AVG |
HR |
RBI |
Runs |
SB |
OPS |
|
2012 |
RK, A |
34 |
.299 |
5 |
25 |
28 |
12 |
.832 |
|
2013 |
A+ |
55 |
.281 |
8 |
35 |
38 |
5 |
.810 |
|
2014 |
RK, AA, AAA |
62 |
.340 |
15 |
57 |
42 |
0 |
1.132 |
|
2015 |
AAA |
4 |
.154 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
.466 |
|
2016 |
AA, AAA |
11 |
.162 |
0 |
2 |
4 |
0 |
.509 |
|
2017 |
AAA |
74 |
.267 |
24 |
59 |
49 |
1 |
.952 |
|
2018 |
AAA |
2 |
.250 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
.650 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2014 |
MLB |
24 |
.292 |
5 |
20 |
11 |
1 |
.903 |
|
2015 |
MLB |
101 |
.262 |
10 |
47 |
39 |
3 |
.723 |
|
2016 |
MLB |
86 |
.238 |
12 |
31 |
37 |
0 |
.726 |
|
2017 |
MLB |
35 |
.144 |
2 |
6 |
7 |
0 |
.503 |
|
2018 |
MLB |
61 |
.265 |
9 |
28 |
27 |
3 |
.820 |
|
|
Per |
162 |
.249 |
20 |
70 |
64 |
4 |
.750 |
|
|
Baseball America |
Baseball Prospectus |
MLB.com |
|
2013 |
34th |
36th |
42nd |
|
2014 |
41st |
45th |
49th |
|
2015 |
12th |
19th |
22nd |
THE SKILLS
Through April last season Soler owned an OPS of .890, and through his first 50 games he had hit eight homers with 25 RBI and 26 runs. Then he broke his toe, and that was pretty much it for Soler. Still, let’s take a look at some of the numbers he posted last season in a few player comparisons.
Soler hit a homer every 24.8 at-bats.
Freddie Freeman hit a homer every 26.9 at-bats.
Soler had a .354 OBP.
Rhys Hoskins had a .354 OBP.
Soler had a .820 OPS.
Jose Martinez had a .821 OPS.
Let’s go back before we go forward.
As a minor leaguer Soler has been a star. Through 242 games on the farm he’s hit .286 with a .382 OBP and a .530 SLG. He’s the owner of a 0.62 BB/K rate, and per 140 games he’s hit 30 homers (that includes 24 in just 74 games at Triple-A in 2017). Again, he’s starred on the farm.
As a major leaguer, things have been different largely, I believe, because he just can’t get any momentum built up because of his continual injuries.
THE WALK
Soler has a walk rate of 10.9 to 11.7 percent the last three seasons. The league average last season was 8.5 percent. Soler has done a good job of taking the free pass if the pitches aren’t to his liking, just as he did in the minor leagues.
THE STRIKEOUT
The man will strike out. Not at absurd levels or anything, but last season his K-rate was 26.8 percent and his career mark is 27.9 percent (the league average last season was 22.3 percent).
The resulting 0.34 career BB/K ratio is well below his pace in the minor leagues, but it appears to be the pretty much league average level he’s at right now (he’s been over the 0.39 league average in 2-of-3 seasons at 0.47 and 0.41, but that’s barely above average of course).
THE POWER
For his career, Soler owns a .176 ISO mark.
The league average last season was .161.
For his career, Soler owns a .424 SLG.
The league average last season was .409.
For his career, Soler has a 35.8 percent fly ball rate.
The league average last season was 35.4 percent.
For his career, Soler has a 15.3 percent HR/FB ratio.
The league average last season was 12.7 percent.
Pretty much league average stuff, but…
Note that in two of the last three years his HR/FB ratio has been 16.9 and 17.0 percent. It should also be noted that his launch angle in 2-of-3 seasons has been 16.7 and 19.6 percent.
Let’s play a hypothetical game. Give him a 16 HR/FB percent fly ball rate, an 18 percent launch angle and a 44 percent fly ball rate (a number he has reached in 2-of-3 seasons), and we’re talking about a 30-homer bat here. That’s not hyperbole. Thirty homers would happen if he hit those three numbers and saw a full-compliment of at-bats.
Let’s talk a bit more about oomph. For his career Soler has a 36.5 percent hard-hit rate (the league average last season was 35.3 percent). Last season though he jacked that mark up to 42.9 percent, a “big boy” number.
Amongst players with at least 150 batted ball events last season Soler ranked 89th out of 332 in average exit velocity (89.6 mph). Soler was also 86th in barrels per plate appearance (6.2 percent). He was much higher than either of those marks in the mph level on fly balls and line drives as his 96.3 mph mark on those batted balls was 21st, basically an elite level.
THE SPLITS
Here are some numbers for his career.
|
|
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
wOBA |
wRC+ |
|
Home |
.254 |
.340 |
.433 |
.335 |
109 |
|
Away |
.242 |
.309 |
.414 |
.312 |
95 |
|
vs. Left |
.253 |
.349 |
.452 |
.342 |
114 |
|
vs. Right |
.247 |
.318 |
.414 |
.318 |
98 |
Clearly, he’s been a bit better at home and against lefties, but overall there is a lot of similarity going on here with no obvious areas of outright worry.
PLAYING TIME
Here are Soler’s games played marks the last four seasons.
2015: 105 games
2016: 97 games
2017: 109 games
2018: 63 games
Dicey thy name is Soler. Here is a list of the injuries.
2015: Missed two months with ankle and oblique issues
2016: Missed two months with a hamstring issue
2017: Missed more than a month with an oblique issue
2018: Missed over three months with a broken toe
So that’s oblique twice, ankle, hamstring and toe.
Is he unlikely?
Is his connective tissue weak?
Is there hope?
Truth? We don’t know. It’s really any bodies guess at this point.
The way that the Royals are currently constructed would seem to leave Soler with a spot int eh daily lineup, likely as the DH to try and protect his body (the outfield being something like Alex Gordon, Billy Hamilton, Brian Goodwin/Brett Phillips/Jorge Bonifacio). The fact is that the Royals are pretty bereft of the skill-set that Soler possesses, and that could mean that he might even hit in the 3-5 hole.
AVERAGE DRAFT POSITION DATA
As of this writing, here is the ADP data for Soler (since February 1st).
|
|
|
|
|
|
Overall |
Position Rank |
|
364.9 |
83rd |
The Fantasy Guru Rankings can be found by clicking on the link.
CONCLUSION
Would I be shocked if Soler went 25-75 this season? I wouldn’t be at all. When we consider the cost, basically free in most mixed leagues, you’re spending virtually no draft capitol to take the chance on a talent that could blow past his ADP. If healthy, he could exceed those homer and RBI target totals while providing a solid OBP and OPS. At the same time, the odds of some type of breakout season must be tempered by the history of Soler that suggests staying on the field long enough to reach inflated expectations is low.
10-Team Mixed: Is he rosterable here? Very close. Don’t reach past the last few rounds, even if you go in.
12/15 Team Mixed: An ideal final outfield option if you’re the kind that likes to role the dice. Won’t find any speed help here, but the rest of his game is pretty darn solid, especially if he holds on to the power gains he’s shown of late.
AL-Only League: Depends on your league mates. Some will likely have written him off completely. Others might see his name and think ‘if cheap maybe.’ You can think something like ‘cheap and a target’ in the later rounds or at a cheap cost in an auction.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
