Twelve months ago, Elvis Andrus was coming off a 20/25 season and was the toast of the fantasy community. Flash forward to March 2019 and he’s a virtual afterthought for most. Sure, his season was derailed by injury last season, and he was never likely to replicate his 2017 numbers, but why in the world is the fantasy community so anti-Andrus at the moment? Is there a chance he will be a decent value add given his relatively muted cost on draft day?
30 years old
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Height/Weight: 6’0”, 200 lbs.
Position: Shortstop
THE NUMBERS
|
|
Level |
Games |
AVG |
HR |
RBI |
Runs |
SB |
OPS |
|
2009 |
MLB |
145 |
.267 |
6 |
40 |
72 |
33 |
.702 |
|
2010 |
MLB |
1478 |
.265 |
0 |
35 |
88 |
32 |
.643 |
|
2011 |
MLB |
150 |
.279 |
5 |
60 |
96 |
37 |
.708 |
|
2012 |
MLB |
58 |
.286 |
3 |
62 |
85 |
21 |
.727 |
|
2013 |
MLB |
156 |
.271 |
4 |
67 |
91 |
42 |
.659 |
|
2014 |
MLB |
157 |
.263 |
2 |
41 |
72 |
27 |
.647 |
|
2015 |
MLB |
160 |
.258 |
7 |
62 |
69 |
25 |
.667 |
|
2016 |
MLB |
147 |
.302 |
8 |
69 |
75 |
24 |
.800 |
|
2017 |
MLB |
158 |
.297 |
20 |
88 |
100 |
25 |
.808 |
|
2018 |
MLB |
97 |
.256 |
6 |
33 |
53 |
5 |
.675 |
|
|
Per |
162 |
.275 |
7 |
61 |
88 |
30 |
.704 |
|
|
Baseball America |
Baseball Prospectus |
MLB.com |
|
2006 |
61st |
|
|
|
2007 |
65th |
|
|
|
2008 |
19th |
58th |
|
|
2009 |
37th |
73rd |
|
THE SKILLS
It’s amazing how 12 months can change everyone’s point of view on a player.
Last season Andrus was being taken inside the top-60 picks in the draft.
This year, his ADP is more than 100 spots later than that in drafts (see below).
Andrus is the perfect example of recency bias. He failed to perform up to expectations last season, so he’s just vanished from peoples minds as a legitimate option to turn to in 2019. Yes, he was hurt last season, he broke his elbow and missed about two months, but the fact that his ADP is so low is clearly a result of people suffering from amnesia.
Here’s some data.
From his rookie season in 2009 through 2017, Andrus appeared in at least 145 games each year. He and Robinson Cano were the only players in baseball to accomplish that iron man feat.
From 2009-17, Andrus stole at least 21 bases each season. He was the only player in baseball in that group.
An average effort for Andrus from 2009-17 was the following: .277-6-58-83-30.
How many players matched all five of those numbers last season? The answer is four: Whit Merrifield, Trea Turner, Jose Ramirez and Mookie Betts.
Sooooo many folks have forgotten all of that.
Let’s talk about his game.
His value will likely result from whether or not he runs.
As noted above, Andrus stole at least 21 bases, with a high of 42, heading into last season. Unexpectedly, he fell to just five steals in 97 games last season. His OBP was 25 points off his career level at .308, and he undoubtedly rushed back after his broken elbow, and with his struggles at the dish, it makes sense that he attempted to focus on his hitting over his base running. Still, he attempted only eight thefts in 97 games and that is concerning. However, he seemed to show a good deal of his speed, even if his Speed Score was down a bit from 5.7 in 2017 to 4.8 in 2018 (his Speed Score had been between 4.6 and 5.7 in 3-of-4 seasons before ’18). His nine percent SBO mark figures to go up after the previous four seasons the mark rested between 21 and 25 percent. Taking a look at the Rangers lineup, it’s clear that they will benefit from trying to make a few things happen, and as one of the few running options on the club, it just stands to reason that Andrus will be asked to motor on the bases.
Let’s talk his approach.
Andrus posted a 0.42 BB/K ratio last season. That’s better than the 0.38 mark he posted in 2017. It is below his career level (0.56), but who wouldn’t trade two percent in the strikeout column for a bit more overall pop? Answer – no one. The swinging strike rate has gone up from the 5-6 percent range (5.8 percent for his career) to 8.5 and 9.0 the last two seasons, but that’s still well below the 10.7 percent league average mark last season. The one area to keep an eye on with Andrus is his propensity to swing at pitches outside the strike zone. The mark has gone up in 4-straight seasons, and the rates of 33.9 and 35.4 percent were his first two seasons above 27 percent in his career.
Andrus posted a 1.48 GB/FB in 2015.
In 2016 the mark was 1.67.
In 2017 the mark was 1.54.
In 2018 the mark was 1.60.
He’s been the same guy for four seasons.
Here’s his pull rate the last four seasons. Did he start trying to pull the ball to jack homers? Not really.
2015: 43.7 percent pull rate
2016: 42.7 percent pull rate
2017: 44.8 percent pull rate
2018: 42.0 percent pull rate
He’s been the same guy for four seasons.
Let’s talk hard-hit ball rate. Things have actually improved there.
2015: 27.1 percent
2016: 27.1 percent
2017: 30.5 percent
2018: 33.8 percent
The last four seasons his BABIP has been .283, .333, .325 and .292.
His average the last four seasons is .309.
His career mark is .312.
He’s been the same guy for four seasons.
Andrus has a career 86.3 mph exit velocity.
The mark the last four seasons: 85.3, 86.9, 86.4 and 87.2 mph.
He’s been the same guy for four seasons.
Andrus isn’t the 20-homer guy we saw two years ago. Don’t go drafting him for that. His HR/FB ratio in 2017 was 11.6 percent, basically double his 5.1 percent career mark (and a little). Last season the mark was 5.8 percent and in 2016 it was 6.3 percent. The homer total ain’t coming back. Should be noted though that his Isolated Power mark was been above his career average of .096 in each of the last four seasons (.099, .136, .174 and .111). Further, here are his launch angle marks the last four seasons: 8.1, 8.4, 7.5 and 8.8 percent. He’s been the same guy for four seasons.
PLAYING TIME
Andrus will play daily. That likely means 145 or more games played.
It seems likely he will hit in the top third of the order, likely second. The plate appearances will follow.
AVERAGE DRAFT POSITION DATA
As of this writing, here is the ADP data for Andrus (since February 1st).
|
|
|
|
|
|
Overall |
Position Rank |
|
183.6 |
19th |
The Fantasy Guru Rankings can be found by clicking on the link.
CONCLUSION
Andrus is 30 years old, and it’s easily argued that he’s already had his best season. At the same time, there’s little reason to think that he won’t surpass his draft day cost by merely returning to the levels that he was performing at for a decade at the major league level. As noted, he’s not likely to produce more than about half his high in the homer category, but a return to 20 steals is certainly possible, and in this day and age of stolen base scarcity, that matters. Andrus is also likely to play virtually every day in the top-third of the batting order, and that should allow him to contribute per usual in the homer and runs batted in categories. He’s an ideal middle infield option given his ADP.
10-Team Mixed: Not sexy, but his overall game, as a middle infielder, marks him as a target you can get after the real targets at the position have come off the board.
12/15 Team Mixed: Middle infielders with speed, who play daily, sure seem like a good way to fill your middle infield spot, especially if you have a Cano/Dozier/Story/Machado type combo to provide power up the middle as well.
AL-Only League: Depressed cost. In the lineup daily. A top-third spot in the batting order. A solid ball park to hit in. Steals. All of that leads to one word – buy.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
