As we enter the offseason, there’s a new format that’s emerged over the last couple of seasons which has caught the attention of many. In fact, it’s the preferred way to play for a lot of fantasy football enthusiasts. Best Ball.
Between DRAFT, Fanball (BestBall10s) and a few other established sites, there’s plenty of variety and fun to be had. Lobbies are open, ADPs have been created, and values have emerged. The goal of this article is to identify players that are currently undervalued (or overvalued) and will provide depth in the later rounds of best ball drafts.
It’s time to prepare for the rookies to enter the player pool. While some of you have already been dealing with rookies in BestBall10s, real ADPs on first-year players should begin to solidify after the combine and create themselves on DRAFT. Pre-combine data is worthless at this stage, but let’s take a look at four rookies who could have issues reaching year one expectations.
ROOKIES
DAVID MONTGOMERY (RB)
Montgomery has been a tough prospect to grasp over the last couple of seasons. Despite consistently making eye-popping plays and shouldering a significant touch-total in his final two seasons (573 touches in final two seasons), Montgomery has failed to stack up as the top RB prospect he was hyped to be. Montgomery’s lackluster college efficiency (5.0 yards per touch for his career) was matched at the combine, posting a 47th percentile speed score, a 10th percentile burst score, and only 15 reps on bench press (12th percentile for RBs). Montgomery has garnered a lot of Le’Veon Bell comparisons because of his style and size, but this falls apart when athleticism is taken into account. Despite terrible efficiency at Michigan State (5.2 yards per touch for his career), Bell displayed an athletic piece of clay to mold at the 2013 combine, posting a 71st percentile speed score, 91st percentile agility score, along with 24 reps on the bench press. While combine numbers alone don’t tell much about a player, it can give insight into potential. Bell completely changed his game in the NFL, losing weight, which arguably allowed him to become even more explosive than his testing results. Another bigger RB prospect like Jordan Howard, a fifth-round selection in 2016, posted an 80th percentile speed score and 49th percentile burst score. Montgomery is not even close to that type of athlete, and there are real questions after the combine surrounding his draft position range and ceiling as a prospect. Montgomery is currently being valued as a top-end prospect in the 2019 class, and someone who will have significant value in year one. In a totally objective evaluation, Montgomery has the look of a fourth or fifth round prospect, which would significantly hinder his career opportunity, especially in year one. The draft may yield a surprise with Montgomery landing in round two or three, but he’s entirely too risky at this stage to value at current sticker price.
MARQUISE BROWN (WR)
A general rule to follow when trying to evaluate which prospects will produce in year one is injury status. There’s no easier way for a rookie season to turn into a red-shirt season than a player coming into the NFL injured. There’s been a significant amount of cautionary tales over the last couples of seasons at the WR position, but this has always been an important rule to follow. Injuries are a weird concept to grapple with on a computer. When a season ends and the offseason begins, the slate feels as though it’s being wiped clean, but it’s not. Injuries linger, specifically if they’re major. Brown is a fine prospect, and despite not being able to test at the combine, should find himself being drafted in the first three rounds of the NFL draft. That’s great! He should have a high probability of future success considering that, at some point. Brown suffered a Lisfranc injury a few months ago, and while it’s reported he “should” be ready for the start of the training camp, as mentioned, there’s plenty of history to suggest offseason injuries tend to linger. In recent seasons, Corey Davis, Mike Williams, John Ross, Kevin White and Breshad Perriman are a few good examples of prospects who’s injury troubles started around the draft and ended up crushing their year one potential. While it’s not totally out of the question for Brown to be an outlier, there are other rookies to take gambles on before he should come to mind.
ROOKIE TIGHT ENDS
Over the last couple of seasons, there’s been some rookie production out of young TEs, even some rookies. Players like Evan Engram, George Kittle, Chris Herndon and Mark Andrew all ended up with over 500 receiving yards in year one over the last two seasons. Four TEs have accomplished that in the last two seasons, which should create some market optimism on the 2019 class. Before 2017 and 2018, it happened only seven times in the previous 17 seasons. So, that makes 11 total times in 18 seasons, less than one per season. Rookie TE production not only shouldn’t be counted on, but it should be expected. Most tight ends take three to four seasons to fully develop into fantasy relevant roles, and that’s how top-end prospects Noah Fant, T.J. Hockenson and Irv Smith should be viewed. Unlike RB and WR, TEs have a bunch of responsibility beyond catching and running the ball. It’s a complicated position, and sometimes it’s hard for young TEs to even see the field. A good example from 2018 would be Dolphins second-round pick Mike Gesicki. Gesicki was one of the greatest athletes the combine had ever seen, was a high round pick and went to a depth chart with nobody significant in front of him. Gesicki barley saw the field in year one. That’s not an indictment on him, it’s simply how a lot of TE careers start.
D.K. METCALF (WR)
This may come as a surprise, and it’s even a slight surprise to the person writing the words. Metcalf has been easily the most divisive fantasy rookie prospect of the 2019 season, and that will continue as the draft closes into being. Metcalf, even after running a 4.33 at 228 pounds (A percentile isn’t needed, he’s fast as heck), tested well below average in some agility drills, fully reigniting his detractors with the white-hot intensity of 1,000 suns (I may be mixing analogies here, who knows). Metcalf is an oft-injured but Adonis-looking WR prospect, and one of the most unique we’ve seen in the last two decades. Despite all that, Metcalf is a major gamble as a year one prospect, purely based on his injury history. While he looked like a Gazelle at the combine, it’s important to note he’s coming off a major injury in his final season at Mississippi. Metcalf already has two major injuries to his name, and as mentioned with Marquise Brown earlier, they don’t simply evaporate when the offseason hits. Running around in shorts and getting hit in an NFL game are much different processes, and there’s a strong chance the team that drafts Metcalf will be very careful with him. The difference between Metcalf and the rest of this list is there’s still major upside with the risk associated. Metcalf is almost assuredly going to be a top-15 pick, and IF he can stay on the field, will be put in a position to produce in year one. The major issue is, and will only become more enhanced, is price. At what his going rate has become and is going to be, trusting veterans and fellow rookies N’Keal Harry and A.J. Brown would be advisable. If Metcalf goes to a great situation in the draft and appears healthy, getting exposure later in the summer is a smart move.
