FGE

Fantasy Defense Scoring: The History of This Year’s Coaches

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A quick review of my methods:  I’m studying from 2002 to the present and only looking at Tm Defensive (Tm D) fantasy scoring, NOT defense AND special teams (D/ST) scoring.  Here’s the scoring system I’m using:

  • Interceptions = 2 FP
  • Fumble Recoveries by the Defense = 2 FP
  • Sacks = 1 FP
  • Safeties = 2 FP
  • Interception and Fumble Recovery Returns TDs = 6 FP
  • 0 Points Allowed (PA) = 12 FP
  • 2-7 PA = 8 FP
  • 8-12 PA = 4 FP
  • 13-17 PA = 2 FP (note NFFC scoring for PA may change for 2019)

All statistics in this study come from profootballreference.com’s (PFR) invaluable Play Index.

The first table is a list of the HCs and DCs this year and how their fantasy TM Ds have done since the NFL went to 32 teams in 2002:

The first three columns should be self-explanatory.  “AVG” is the average Tm D fantasy rank combined of both coaches when they were either a HC or DC.  For example, Kliff Kingsbury has no time in either role in the NFL, so the average for ARI is all Vance Joseph.  In Miami in 2016, his TM D ranked 16th.  Then for two years as the Broncos’ HC, his Tm Ds were 20th and 11th.  Overall, his TM Ds averaged a rank of 16, which is what the table shows.

The “Best” and “Worst” numbers are the highest and lowest ranks of the seasons that are accounted for in the AVG.  So ARI this year, that means Joseph’s best fantasy defense (11th)and worst (20th).  The “Top 10” column is the total number of times the HC and DC have placed defenses in the fantasy Top 10.  The “Top 10 %” is the percentage of their total TmDs that have Top 10 finishes. For ARI/Joseph, that is 0-for-3, so the total on the ARI line is 0 and the percentage is 0%.

The color coding is somewhat arbitrary.  CIN gets a yellow because neither Zac Taylor nor Lou Anarumo have any seasons as either a HC or DC in the NFL.  “Green” AVGs are averages in the Top 10, “red” are those in less than 16 – i.e. an average Tm D in the bottom half.  Real bad “Best” performances are also coded red, while really good “Worsts” are green. Three HC/DC pairings in 2019 have zero Top 10 finishes; they get a “red” highlight.

The Top 10% colors are both the most numerous and the most arbitrary.  Remember, 31% of all Tm Ds finish in the Top 10 every year. So I marked in red any HC/DC pair that couldn’t place in the Top 10 31% of the time.  To get a green code, the HC/DC needed to be in the Top 10 55% of the time or more. That is the top quartile.

Some comments:

  • As mentioned above, ARI is all Vance Joseph.
  • In ATL, Dan Quinn hasn’t been very good, with no Top 10 finishes and an average rank of 22nd.  Maybe that’s why he made himself the DC:  his Tm Ds were #1 and #2 in his two years as SEA’s DC.
  • John Harbaugh and Don (Wink) Martindale had the Ravens at #6 in their one year together in Baltimore.
  • CLE is another team where the record is all the DC’s – Steve Wilks hasn’t had much fantasy success, but there are only two seasons in his sample.
  • Dallas’ numbers are actually inflated by Rod Marinelli’s success before he teamed up with Jason Garrett.  As a HC/DC pair, their five Tm D’s have finished 15th, 30th, 21st, 14th, and 23rd.  Marinelli without Garrett had an average rank of 14, with four Top 10 finishes in 6 years as a HC or DC.
  • The other team in Texas, HOU, is the opposite of Dallas.  In the four years Bill O’Brien and Romeo Crennel have been together, they have finished 1st, 5th, 25th, and 3rd.  O’Brien’s TM D was 24th in his one year as HC without Crennel.  Crennel’s average without O’Brien is 17th, and that includes two #1s as Bill Belichick’s DC.
  • Frank Reich/Matt Eberflus/IND have good-looking numbers and colors, but that is just one year.
  • Doug Marrone is an “offense guy” but only last year’s 15th place finish by the Jags has been out of the fantasy D Top 10 in his four years as a HC.
  • For the Rams, Wade Phillips makes Sean McVay’s numbers look good – other than their two seasons together, those numbers are all Wade.
  • Brian Flores has one year as a DC and that comes with a bit of an asterisk considering Belichick was his HC.  Patrick Graham has no DC experiences, so the “Green” for MIA is all NE 2018.
  • Graham and Anarumo are the only DCs with no prior experience – there are TEN new OCs who have never held that job in the NFL (for a full year – Byron Leftwich and Kevin Stefanski were interim hires in 2018)
  • Speaking for Belichick, in NE Greg Schiano pulls down The Hoodie’s numbers:  without the new DC’s 22nd and 13th ranks in two years in TB, Belichick’s 2002-2018 average fantasy D has ranked 8th, with 71% of those seasons in the Top 10.
  • Giants’ DC James Bettcher had two good years in ARI (#3 and #1); with Pat Shurmur he’s been 16th and 29th.  Shurmur as HC in CLE had the #13 and #28 fantasy Ds.
  • Like with Belichick, Pete Carroll’s numbers are pulled down by his DC’s mediocre record.  Ken Norton’s three Tm Ds before coming to Seattle ranked 21st, 19th, and 32nd.  Meanwhile, Carroll’s Seahawk defenses have an average rank of 7th, and that’s weighted down by a 22nd in his first year.  Since then, Carroll’s Tm Ds have never finished lower than 11th for fantasy.
  • SF’s Kyle Shanahan and Robert Saleh’s grim numbers are in only two years and neither has a record without the other.
  • Bruce Arians has a surprisingly good record for fantasy defenses.  His first four years in Arizona were all Top 10 Tm Ds; only his last year saw their fantasy rank slip to 16th.  Todd Bowles didn’t do very well with the Jets, so that pulls the TB averages down but Arians and Bowles together had the #4 and #8 fantasy defenses in 2013-2014.

I’m inclined to attribute more of fantasy Tm D success to personnel more than to coaching.  But obviously Belichick, Philips, and Carroll have pretty long records of fantasy success. You probably won’t go wrong owning their defenses in 2019.  And Arians’ D could be a sleeper: I’m not sure the personnel in TB match what he and Bowles had in ARI, but Arians has a multi-year record of success. Likewise, the O’Brien/Crennel tandem has been good in Houston.  Based on the coaching, I’d avoid Dallas and be skeptical of Atlanta and Arizona. Probably both NY teams belong on the avoid list as well.

Finally, here’s the fantasy record of all the current HCs and DCs since 2002.  The numbers are the fantasy ranks of the defenses when they were either an NFL head coach or a defensive coordinator.  “NA” indicates they were neither in a given year. Top 10 finishes are coded green, Bottom Ten are red. Dan Quinn only gets listed once; each other HC and DC for 2019 gets his own entry.  The list is alphabetical by last name.