No specific topic for this week’s column, just three random observations as we get into the thick of draft season and prepare for Opening Day. Your boy Gut is fully in the zone and ready for my big drafts coming up. That includes two of the NFBC Main Events and the NFBC Platinum. I’ll be in Las Vegas to draft one of the Main Events live next Saturday, then the Platinum draft later that day (both with my roto partner in crime, Rob Silver). I’ll fly back home (to L.A.) Sunday morning, then draft in the online Main Event later that afternoon. It is by far my favorite weekend of the year and my level of focus with so many hours of nonstop drafting is always at an all-year high.
My January through March as far as drafts go is always works in the same sequence, every year. I get myself up to speed on the new player pool through some 15-team Draft Champions (DC) 50-round leagues, then a few Online Champions (OC) teams (12-teamers) from mid-February through the beginning of March. Then back into to full study mode for my big three 15-team drafts that final weekend before the season.
The Platinum is particularly intriguing because it’s a satellite (closed) league where theoretically a team can punt an individual category or attempt various, unique strategies. It’s a 15k entry with a 120k first place prize (we came in second last year) and pays out the top four, but for Rob and I, the goal is unified, and we’re locked in – it’s to win that sucker. What is unique to the Platinum is that every team in the league gets to actually bid for our first-round draft slot using in-season FAAB dollars ($1000 budget). So, technically, we can get into a bidding war with other teams for pick # 1, or any other pick, if we wanted to. Last year, that spot cost over $525 of the FAAB budget. That means the team who ‘paid’ for the right to draft first and select Mike Trout only had $475 FAAB budget remaining before the season even started. Last year, Rob and I didn’t mind picking towards the end and paid under $40 fake free agent buckaroos for the 14 pick where we proceeded to draft one very (as he turned out to be) valuable J.D. Martinez. I won’t disclose our strategy this year other than to say that in-season FAAB is more valuable to me than any one draft slot. I’ll be sure to let y’all know via Twitter how that round selection draft goes as it takes place two days beforehand. The Platinum is on Saturday, March 23.
At the end of the day, we truly only care about our own teams. Surely, keeping tabs on how some of our favorite analyst’s draft is important, but we all know that each and every one of us are going to have our fair share of hits and misses. There are players I love targeting this spring who will get hurt, or flat out disappoint. It’s all about how we adapt and pivot when such misfortunes occur and continue to grind it out with our lineup decisions and waiver wire work every week.
I did come to a few interesting realizations this week:
- The NL West is extremely overloaded with southpaw starters
Perhaps that affects how much value we put into lefty hitters in that division. Let’s look at left-handed starters by team in the NL West to see just how southpaw-heavy the starting rotations are:
- Padres: Lucchesi, Strahm, Lauer, maybe Erlin
- Dodgers: Hill, Ryu, eventually Kershaw
- Giants: Bumgarner, Pomeranz, Holland
- Rockies: Freeland, Anderson
- Diamondbacks: Ray
That seems like a lot, doesn’t it? The Dodgers, for example, face NL West opponents in nearly 50 percent of their games this season (76 of 162). Granted they’ll face some righty relievers, and some of the southpaws in the division aren’t exactly dynamite (cough *Anderson* cough). Yet, that is still something worth noting while we’re still drafting. Perhaps it’s not a reason to downgrade the likes of Charlie Blackmon and Corey Seager who are lefty hitters who have shown the ability to handle southpaw pitchers. But it could be a reason to consider possibly selecting Rhys Hoskins over Cody Bellinger if you’re in the fourth round of a 12-team draft and are comparing both as options to employ your starting first baseman slot.
Bellinger did hit lefties just as well as he did righties his rookie season (.374 wOBA, .297 ISO vs. LHP, .383 wOBA, .323 ISO vs RHP), but saw a monster dip in his effectiveness against them last season (.297 / .151 vs LHP, .369 / .240 vs RHP). Unless you expect some positive regression for him against lefties in 2019, it certainly does give us a moment of pause if we’re planning to invest a top-50 pick on a guy who will battle a boatload of lefties within his division. Same goes for teammates Max Muncy and Joc Pederson, the latter of whom I’m not even touching in those final rounds as I prefer alternative options. David Dahl is someone else I’m more cautious on than I was a few weeks ago. If he doesn’t figure lefties out, he may find himself in a slump which can cause a dip down the lineup to perhaps hitting seventh when one is on the mound.
As for other teams in the NL West, I now have strong reservations about selecting Jake Lamb in the latter rounds for streaming purposes. There will certainly be periods that will be advantageous to him, but those may be fewer and far between with so many southpaws within the division, possibly making it hard for us to properly stream him. Other lefty bats within the division I may want to downgrade a tad include Franchy Cordero (SD), Steven Duggar (SF) and Brandon Belt (SF). It’s quite possible that I’m blowing this whiff of revelation out of proportion but digging in to some of these team’s schedules shows just how bunched up some of these NL West-only series are. It’s not a reason to avoid altogether, but something that can be considered as a tie-breaker while you’re drafting.
On the flip side, think about the best lefty-mashers in that division (Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado and Justin Turner) and note that they are currently worth every penny of their ADP. Especially Turner who goes nearly 80 picks later in March drafts. Last season, only Mookie Betts had just as high or higher of a wOBA against lefties than those three – Betts .488, Arenado, .488, Story .442, Turner .433.
- Love those AL Central pitchers
I find myself drafting many of members of the Cleveland Indians’ pitching staff as much as possible (Hella shares through my first seven drafts and I’m not even from NorCal). That includes their four main starters (Bauer, Carrasco, Clevinger, Bieber) as well as closer Brad Hand. The Minnesota Twins have added pieces to their offense (Nelson Cruz, C.J. Cron, Marwin Gonzalez, Jonathan Schoop) and are stronger, though all but Cruz posted strikeout rates higher than 23 percent last season. Throw in the rates of Byron Buxton and eventually Miguel Sano, and we’ll certainly see some double-digit strikeout starts against this group. The rest of the division is rather stench-filled as well. The Indians’ offense is significantly weaker than the 2018 version and the rest of the teams (Royals, Tigers, White Sox) are downright atrocious outside of the stolen bases that a gaggle of Royals will offer. With so many games within the division, it may behoove us to consciously target some of these later-round AL Central starting pitcher fliers like Martin Perez (significantly increased velocity this spring), Brad Keller (up-and-comer who posted a 3.08 ERA / 3.55 FIP in 140 IP last season), Jake Junis (lowered HR/9 from 2.12 in injury-riddled first half to 0.96 in second half) and Carlos Rodon (former big-time prospect with a nasty slider who is a fantastic bounce-back candidate). My takeaway here is how much I love these Indians’ pitchers this season with so many games within this rather subpar division.
- Undervalued Leadoff Hitters
There are a handful of hitters projected to lead off who have been getting little to no love in drafts this spring. First one is Adam Eaton who typically falls to the 19th or 20th round of 12-team NFBC leagues (March ADP: 200). Eaton is a typically unattractive later-round selection because he doesn’t stand out in any one specific category outside of batting average. Over the years I’ve noticed just how underrated batting average is to my league mates though, and it’s a category that is usually a very rare find after the top 200 or so picks. Howie Kendrick fit that bill for us for many years as one of those unsexy late-AVG draft picks. There is certainly nothing wrong with keeping these contact guys handy for us in the later rounds if we have a Joey Gallo-type on our roster already. Eaton has dealt with his fair share of health issues missing most of the 2017 season and nearly half of 2018. But he is a career .289 hitter who hit .301 in 95 games last year with the operative word here being ‘leadoff’. Being in that position serves as a boost to the ‘runs’ category and he fits in nicely for certain roster builds in-draft if runs and batting average are the two offensive categories our squads might feel deficient in.
Other worthwhile options in those later rounds who are slated to lead off include Kevin Kiermaier (March ADP: 306), Adam Frazier (March ADP: 326), Leonys Martin (March ADP: 345) and Josh Harrison (March ADP: 428). Harrison is a righty while Eaton, Kiermaier, Martin and Frazier are all left-handed bats who may find themselves platooned out of the leadoff spot against southpaws. But there is still intrinsic fantasy value in having the opportunity to bat first in their team’s respective lineups and get that fifth at-bat in a game. All five have a bit of speed as well, and all but Kiermaier and Martin can provide a positive benefit in the batting average category.
Finally, since a few of you have asked in the MLB Chat Room, I wanted to list a couple starting pitchers I’ve been targeting and avoiding after ADP 200 or so:
Targets
Collin McHugh, Astros (ADP: 235) – Hasn’t looked great this spring and has been dealing with a minor back ailment, which is fine by me and hopefully that keeps his draft helium from soaring. I’m always keeping an extra eye on Astros’ starters. McHugh added a wicked slider last season, striking out nearly 12 batters-per-nine and posted a 1.99 ERA in middle relief last season (72 IP). An ERA in the 3.30 – 3.50 range is certainly in play and I’d bet he notches at least 26 starts in 2017.
Touki Toussaint, Braves (ADP: 317) – Helium is rising in drafts recently for the 22-year-old fireballer and former 16th overall selection of the 2014 Amateur Draft. Toussaint didn’t set the world on fire in his call-up last season, though did whiff 32 big league batters in 29 innings and provided a glimpse of himself as a mainstay in Atlanta’s rotation. Ever better of a chance of it now with a solid spring and Mike Foltynewicz not ready for Opening Day.
Marcus Stroman, Blue Jays (ADP: 335) – How the mighty have fallen. There isn’t much to love in his profile anymore, especially after posting a career-worst 5.54 ERA and worst-ever 17 percent strikeout rate, among the worst of all starters last season. But we’ve seen what a healthy Stroman is capable of. A big-time ground ball guy, Stroman’s career rate is 60 percent and he is just one season removed from teasing us with an ERA just above 3.00. A pitcher’s schedule can’t start off any stronger than it does for him. He’ll likely be the Blue Jays’ Opening Day starter, and that matchup is with the lowly Tigers. After that, he faces another weak opponent (Orioles) followed by an Indians’ squad that appears to be fielding a Triple-A team outside of Jose Ramirez, followed by the Rays, Twins and Giants (assuming no rain outs). It truly doesn’t get any better than that. If he can’t handle that stretch of outings, then he’s easily cuttable as your 26th round pick anyways. But I don’t think the magic of Stroman is gone, and I’m willing to pay a low, low price to perhaps find out.
Brandon Woodruff, Brewers (ADP: 344) – Well, I am all-in. And I hate the fact that many of our subscribers are folks I have to battle with in the NFBC, but what’s better than beating other fantasy managers after you’ve already opened your kimono on your favorite targets? Woodruff was a beast in the playoffs last year and has been battling fellow stud youngster Corbin Burnes for the final rotation spot with the loser either going to the bullpen or continuing stretched out as a starter in Triple-A. Burnes is damn good, but I’m putting my money on Woodruff to win the job. With a rotation that simply doesn’t impress (Nelson, Chacin, Davies, Anderson) it won’t be a stretch for me to say that Woodruff will earn all your attention as this team’s best pitcher. I have him on all four of my OC teams and three of four DC’s. I’ve been wrong before and will again but feel strongly about the fact that I won’t be about Woodruff. In fact, don’t be surprised to see both Woodruff and Burnes in the rotation at some point this season.
And that’s how I leave you this week. I’m available on twitter and in the Chat Room if you have draft questions and I’ll do my best to answer every single one of them until I get to Vegas. Because then, it’s GAME ON. Next week I’ll dive deeper into some more targets and get you ready for the start of this season. Until then. Gut, out.
