I don’t know how some of you do it. You go through life willy-nilly and seem genuinely happy to do so. I’m not criticizing you, I am actually very, very jealous.
You see, I need to plan EVERYTHING. I have the next month of my life planned out in great detail. Sure, there are always bumps in the road and things that come up that are beyond my control but if I didn’t set a path for myself, I really don’t think that I would ever get anywhere.
Let me be more direct. To win a championship in fantasy baseball, you have to have a plan. The stats/categories are too robust, and the season is just too long. If you’re playing rotisserie style then you need to know what numbers are going to win it for you. How are you going to be at the top of multiple categories if you don’t know what that even means? The truth is that you can’t and you won’t.
Just draft the best players #1-#29 and it’ll all work out, right? Oh, you fledgling, simple, snuggly bastards. You’re drawing dead this way my friends especially if you’re playing against any kind of competition.
What I want you all to start doing (if you don’t already) is to total up your categories as you draft. Trust me, if a bird brain like myself can do it, so can you. All it takes is a spreadsheet with some very simple formulas. Here are the headers to get your started:
HITTERS
AB Hits BA HR Runs RBI SB
PITCHERS
IP ER H BB Wins ERA WHIP K’s Saves
So what do you do with all of these? Thank you for asking. All you do is put these headers into your spreadsheet, fill in the names of the players you draft and then the projections for each player. The key of course will be with projection system you use. We don’t use projections here but highly recommend Fangraphs free projections such as ZIPS or Streamer. Simply find the player you drafted, plug in the projections and boom you are in business. If you are more sophisticated in technology, you can simply have these pulled into your spreadsheet automatically.
As you draft your team, you have the bottom of your spreadsheet adding up the totals from each category. Underneath those totals are the projected roto targets for each category. What are those you ask? Well thank you for asking.
I’ve done exhaustive research and compiling of information from the very top (total gross numbers) all the way down (individual league number over last 6 seasons). What follows are the ideal measurements to target for 12 team, 5×5 rotisserie style fantasy baseball leagues. Please understand that these numbers are not intended to hit directly, rather as a guideline of how to build and maintain your team.
|
CATEGORY |
TO WIN |
TO COMPETE |
|
Batting Average |
0.266 |
0.260 |
|
Home Runs |
325 |
290 |
|
RBI |
1110 |
1050 |
|
Runs |
1150 |
1090 |
|
Stolen Bases |
175 |
145 |
|
CATEGORY |
TO WIN |
TO COMPETE |
|
Wins |
108 |
85 |
|
ERA |
3.40 |
3.80 |
|
WHIP |
1.15 |
1.25 |
|
Strikeouts |
1550 |
1350 |
|
Saves |
110 |
80 |
Before you get too excited you must understand that you’re not going to win every category nor are you likely to compete in every category. In a perfect world, you’ll project to win six or so categories which would mean you did an amazing job. But it never, ever works out as projected and thus it’s just as important keeping track of your actual totals throughout the season.
Here is what I do. Through the first five rounds of a fantasy baseball draft, I take the best possible players. Ideally, I like to take players that impact all five categories on their side of the ledger. After that, I will let the spreadsheet guide me. Where do I rank in batting average? How many HR’s do I currently have? The categories I am behind in, I need to address. The categories I have an abundance of, I can leave alone for a while. If you’ve never done this before during a draft, you will instantly realize that you’ve been drafting wrong your entire life. It’s more work but come the 17thround and you realize that there is a guy who can get you back on track in saves instead of drafting more HR’s that you already have a ton of, you will be thankful.
These projections are also a life saver during the season. It will save you a ton of time and FAAB when you can isolate only the players you truly need that affect the categories you need to fill. Again, you may be behind a bit on HR’s if the ball in jumping back to 2017 levels so you will need to compare these numbers with the pace of your league every now and then. But if you draft and manage your team according to these targets, you are going to save yourself a ton of hassle and be much more competitive in your leagues this year.
