As I noted in my Breakout Pitcher of the Year column, Anthony DeSclafani was someone that I really liked (yes, the S is capitalized). Taking a look at his current ADP, it’s clear that the overall fantasy universe certainly isn’t in agreement with my position. In fact, in the majority of leagues, DeSclafani isn’t someone who is even being drafted. What do I see in him that others are seemingly missing? Let’s dig into the data and see if I can convince you of my position.
28 years old
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Height/Weight: 6’1”, 195 lbs.
Position: Starting Pitcher
THE NUMBERS
| Level | IP | W-L | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | GB/FB | |
| 2012-18 | Minors | 402.1 | 26-21 | 3.53 | 1.24 | 7.90 | 1.90 | 0.70 | |
| 2014 | MLB | 33 | 2-2 | 6.27 | 1.36 | 7.09 | 1.36 | 1.09 | 0.88 |
| 2015 | MLB | 184.2 | 9-13 | 4.05 | 1.35 | 7.36 | 2.68 | 0.83 | 1.34 |
| 2016 | MLB | 123.1 | 9-5 | 3.28 | 1.22 | 7.66 | 2.19 | 1.17 | 1.18 |
| 2018 | MLB | 115 | 7-8 | 4.93 | 1.29 | 8.45 | 2.35 | 1.88 | 1.15 |
| Career | 162 | 191 | 11-12 | 4.22 | 1.30 | 7.90 | 2.37 | 1.20 | 1.21 |
THE SKILLS
Let me start at the end and talk ballpark. DeSclafani pitches in Great American Ball Park. According to Park Factors, last season that park was tied for 4th in runs allowed. It’s an offensive environment no doubt. One of the main reasons for that elevated runs scored mark is that no park in baseball, not even Coors Field, had a worse Park Factor mark in homers last season than GABP at 39.5 percent above average. In 2017 the park ranked 10th in homers and in 2016 the park was 4th. The park leads to homers. It’s a homer spot.
Enter DeSclafani.
Last season AD, and his name is just too hard to type over and over so I’m going AD, allowed a massive 1.88 homers per nine. Massive was thy number (amongst pitchers with 110 innings pitched last season his mark was the fourth worst in baseball). So, there is no hope, right? Not so fast. For his career, the mark is 1.20 which is with a tenth of the league average last season. Further, AD has a career 12.8 percent HR/FB ratio, and the league average last season was 12.7 percent. So why was AD brutalized last season? It was a crazy-high, nearly certain to regress, HR/FB ratio of 19.8 percent. Remember, his career mark is 12.8 and his rate in 2016 was 12.6 percent. The number will regress, likely significantly despite the park, and the homer total should settle right around the league average. Further, it’s not like AD is some massive fly ball magnet. He’s not. In fact, his 35.3 percent career mark, which was 36.1 percent last season despite that crazy homer total, is pretty much dead on the league fly ball rate in 2018 of 35.4 percent. He’s very average when it comes to the fly ball rate, and very average as well with the 1.21 career GB/FB ratio. The bottom line is that his homer beating was nearly completely HR/FB driven, and as noted, that mark should improve, which is supported by the fact that his 2018 launch angle was 10.4 percent, actually a tenth below his career level.
Let’s talk some splits. Note, my normal caveat. 1st/2nd half splits do not tell the whole story. They are arbitrary end points. You could choose whatever date you want, but we all just do the 1st/2nd thing cause it’s tidy and clean. I’m still gonna highlight the second half last season as something that is interesting.
|
|
K/9 |
BB/9 |
OPSA |
xFIP |
wOBA |
|
2nde Half |
9.25 |
2.15 |
.779 |
3.42 |
.330 |
Those are not elite numbers, but they clearly show what can happen when AD gets locked in, don’t they? They do to me.
As for the strikeout per inning part, it’s hard to see that being who he is at the moment. His swinging strike rate the last three years has been 9.5, 9.5 and 9.4 percent. None of those numbers match the league average (10.7 league average last season). That leaves AD as unlikely to build upon the 8.45 mark he posted last season.
AD has done a very good job limiting the walks as a big leaguer. To this point of his career he has a 2.37 BB/9 rate, the mark was 2.35 last season, and the league average last year was 3.25. As a result, he owns a 3.25 K/BB ratio for his career and the mark is over 3.50 the last two seasons. Last year, amongst ERA qualifiers, only 25 of the 57 men posted a mark of 3.50. AD’s number is one that suggest significant success can be had.
AD also made a change in pitch deployment last season. After throwing 13 percent of his pitches as a curveball in 2016, he returned from elbow woes to drop that mark down to four percent last season as he upped his slider usage by about seven percent to soak up much of the difference. Given that the curve was flippin’ beat down in 2018 (1.625 OPS on the 16 batted balls last season), it might have been the correct choice. AD has posted an OPS of .540 and .576 the last two seasons on his slider, so it’s clear that the pitch has led to excellent results.
Finally, let’s talk ERA.
The mark was 4.93 last season, largely because of the homers. He’s nowhere near that type of arm. Note that his SIERA (3.96) and xFIP (3.86) were a run below his raw ERA. It’s reasonable to expect his ERA to dip into the three’s this year.
PLAYING TIME
DeSclafani missed nearly 70 days with a strained oblique in 2016.
In 2017 it was an entirely missed season due to a sprained UCL. Interestingly enough, he avoided Tommy John surgery.
Last season Anthony missed nearly 70 days with an oblique strain.
Yes, he’s had a very difficult time staying healthy.
Here are his innings pitched marks as a professional
2012: 123.0 innings
2013: 129.0 innings
2014: 135.1 innings
2015: 184.2 innings
2016: 145.1 innings
2017: 6.2 innings
2018: 134.1 innings
He should be part of the Reds’ rotation this season, though his ability to qualify for the league ERA title is in question.
AVERAGE DRAFT POSITION DATA
As of this writing, here is the ADP data for DeSclafani (since February 1st).
|
|
Overall |
Position Rank |
|
433.5 |
148th |
The Fantasy Guru Rankings can be found by clicking on the link.
CONCLUSION
There is no mixed league in the universe where folks are reaching for AD. In NFBC drafts since February 1st, the earliest AD has been drafted is pick 259, the latest pick 482. If judging by his ADP, AD will be a 29th round pick in a 15-team mixed league. At that cost, he’s virtually free. Add him, then drop him if he doesn’t pan out. No loss at all. Add him, watch him struggle, and add that rookie that gets called up. Add him, then drop him if you have an injury you need to fill. AD is free, so add away. As the notes above suggest, I’m a fan of the skill set and think that he will rise this season, at least to the level of being a streaming option in mixed leagues. If things break right, i.e. the homer to fly ball ratio drops to his/league average, his ERA will dip into the three’s enabling him to function as a usable mixed league piece. I’m totally in given the non-existent cost in mixed leagues. In NL-only leagues I’m even more in as the $2 bid, or 20th round draft selection, could lead to a bounty of positive production.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
