We’ve covered the skills you should be looking for with arms in Relievers What to Target and Relievers What to Avoid. In this piece we will move from the macro to the micro. In this article we will break down some of the middle reliever arms to know. We’ve got the closers covered elsewhere in our Research Section, and though our Rankings give an overall view of where we sit with the relief position at the moment, we thought spotlighting a few of those bullpen arms that are a highly intriguing mix of stuff and talent would be a good direction to proceed in our never ending quest to bring you all the data you need to dominate in 2019.
Note, we’re not claiming these arms are going to lead their team in saves. We’re merely stating that even if they don’t end up closing, that there’s a good reason to be looking their way if you’re looking for some killer innings with strong ratios and tons of strikeouts.
Chris Devenski, Astros: He wasn’t fully healthy last season and saw his swinging strike rate dip (9.70 K/9 and 14.4 swinging strike rate), and his GB/FB fell as well (0.74) compared to his levels the first two seasons (9.71 K/9, 15.1 swinging strike rate, 0.85 GB/FB). Still, I’m granting him a bit of a mulligan here. It’s possible the innings from the previous two seasons caught up to him, but it’s also possible that he just wasn’t healthy last season. It’s not like more than a K per inning or a 3.93 K/BB ratio aren’t good numbers, the numbers he posted last season, while the real issue was a 15.8 percent HR/FB ratio that should pull back in the coming campaign.
Jace Fry, White Sox: He can lose the strike zone at times, even with his second half success the walk rate crept up to 4.13 per nine, but he can also bring the heat. Last season he had a big 14.9 percent swinging strike rate leading to a 34.7 O-swing (the league average was four percent lower). He posted a solid .306 wOBA against righties, but he demolished lefties with a .190 mark. A bit riskier than many on the list, but intriguing.
Will Harris, Astros: He dealt with some shoulder issues last season. He had hernia surgery in the offseason. No one is looking his way. Maybe they shouldn’t be, perhaps the 34 year old is breaking down, but if you look at his work the previous three seasons you wouldn’t get the feeling that the end is near: 2.84 xFIP, 10.03 K/9, 1.95 BB/9, 0.70 HR/9, 53.5 GB-rate over 173 games.
David Hernandez, Reds: He’s 33 years old and over the last four seasons he has four saves. His shoulder has barked a bit this spring, but that’s not enough to suppress the work he posted last season which was strong as his first full season with the Reds included a strikeout per inning. In fact, over the last two seasons he’s been pretty nails, without being dominant, with a 1.01 WHIP, a 4.50 K/BB ratio, a 0.8 HR/9 rate and just 10 homers allowed in 119 frames.
Nate Jones, White Sox: The name is boring. He’s always hurt. He’s likely third on the depth chart for closer duties in Chicago (Colome/Herrera). Jones has also been the “closer in waiting” for about four years, and to date he has eight career saves. Those damn injuries have just crushed him. Over the last two seasons he’s been limited to just 41.2 innings, but through it all he’s still been effective with a 10.24 punchouts per nine. Still, he’s walked 4.5 per nine in that time. Maybe he’s fools gold at this point, but I still have a soft spot for the stuff… if only he could stay on the diamond.
Seth Lugo, Mets: Let’s remove his five starts and look solely at his relief work. Here are those numbers from ‘18: 2.30 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 3.45 K/BB ratio and a .560 OPSA. Those numbers are sterling. As a former starter, he’s no two or three out kinda guy either as the Mets used him, frequently, for extended relief outings leading to 78.1 innings in 49 outings out of the pen. He also upped his ground ball rate last season about four percent from his time as a starter, to over 46 percent, which led to a drop in his HR/9 rate (0.80 per nine).
Reyes Moronta, Giants: He’s got no shot at saves, and he’s a rather rotund fella at about 245 lbs. on his 5’11” frame, but he had one hell of an undercover season last year. In his first full season the righty struggled with the walk at 5.12 per nine, but the rest of his game showed how good his stuff is on the days that he was locating. In his 69 games he punched out nearly 11 per nine, had a 13.6 swinging strike rate, had a 1.09 WHIP and allowed a mere four homers over 65 innings. Righties had a .214 wOBA against him and the mark against everyone was .216 on the road, so he was far from an Oracle creation.
Hector Neris, Phillies: He was one of the most dominate pitchers in baseball last season after his recall from the minors. Most folks will think “failed closer” with Neris. You and I will think ‘great arm, sneaky draft day add.’ Over his last 20 outings the numbers were outstanding: 17.83 K/9, 7.00 K/BB and zero homers allowed. Folks, he generated 53 outs with 35 coming via the strikeout. Read that again. And again.
Ryan Pressly, Astros: One of my personal favorites this season. Not only does he appear to be second in line for saves with the Astros, but he’s coming off a very Dellin Betances-like season. He cut down his fastball usage and upped his curveball rate with devastating effects. In 26 outings with the Astros he posted a 0.77 ERA, 0.60 WHIP and punched out 12.34 per nine with a massive 17 percent swinging strike rate. He also walked just three batters in the 23.1 innings. All told he struck out a massive 101 batters in 71 innings and he did all that despite a somewhat unfortunate .319 BABIP.
Richard Rodriguez, Pirates: He’s a 6’4” righty of the Pirates if you didn’t know, and I bet a bunch didn’t. He dealt with some shoulder discomfort in June, but he blew right through it as he posted identical wOBA marks of .262 in the first and second half (that’s pretty darn hard to do). He was also pretty ferocious with men on base (.247 wOBA) and with runners in scoring position (.252 wOBA). He was a power arm with an 11.42 K/9 rate and his 2.47 walk rate led to an impressive 4.63 K/BB ratio. His fly ball rate of 42 percent wasn’t elite, but he still allowed only five homers in 69.1 innings. Keep an eye on the big fly, but other than that concern, this is one solid arm.
Chaz Roe, Rays: He injured his knee last season which limited him to 50.1 innings. He finished second in the AL with 31 holds as he displayed that slider to many a batter with strong results (.509 OPS in 2018 which was just off his .537 career mark on the pitch). He’s an established strikeout an inning arm, and it’s hard not to look at that skill, and his 52.1 percent ground ball rate for his career, and not think you could do a lot worse than turning Roe’s way when an injury strikes your club.
Fernando Romero, Twins: The 24 year old failed last season as a starter with the Twins. The velocity sat at 95+ mph last season as a starter, but control of the pitch often eluded him, and even if it didn’t lead to a boatload of walks (3.07 per nine), it led to a .777 OPS and a 25.5 percent line drive rate on the heater. The team has shifted him to the pen this spring, and his 2-pitch mix, power fastball and potentially devastating slider, could lead to dominant work if he sticks in the pen. Recall the long list of failed starters moved to the bullpen who went on to dominate with stuff that might not even be on par with that of Romero.
Tony Watson, Giants: Like his teammate above, this lefty has little to no shot at save chances. Still, he’s been one of the best lefties in baseball for years now. Last season he posted a sterling 5.14 K/BB ratio and his 9.8 K/9 rate was the best of his career. Each of the last six seasons he’s thrown at least 66 innings and over those 435 outings he owns a 2.46 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 3.88 K/BB ratio. He’s not a big strikeout arm, the rate is 8.1 per nine the last six years, but the stability he brings in the bullpen is hard to find.
