Eric Thames can flat out mash. Many folks seem to have forgotten that two years ago Thames was the hottest name in baseball as he was returning from the KBO with some of the best numbers we’ve ever seen. He then had a massive hot streak to start the season, and folks were claiming he was a top-5 first baseman. The year ended with a 31 homers, 83 run effort with a neat .900 OPS, and he went into last season as a starting first baseman in fantasy. However, Jesus Aguilar emerged, Thames dealt with some ill health, and Thames was relegated to a supporting role. Given that fact, folks are out on Thames in 2019. Should you follow the crowd or create your own path?
32 years old
Bats/Throws: Left/Right
Height/Weight: 6’0”, 215 lbs.
Position: First Base, Outfield
THE NUMBERS
| Level | Games | AVG | HR | RBI | Runs | SB | OPS | |
| 2014-16 | KBO | 390 | .349 | 126 | 387 | 247 | 64 | 1.164 |
| 2011 | MLB | 95 | .262 | 12 | 37 | 58 | 2 | .769 |
| 2012 | MLB | 86 | .232 | 9 | 25 | 27 | 1 | .672 |
| 2017 | MLB | 138 | .247 | 31 | 63 | 83 | 4 | .877 |
| 2018 | MLB | 96 | .219 | 16 | 37 | 41 | 7 | .783 |
| Per | 162 | .243 | 27 | 36 | 82 | 5 |
.791 |
THE SKILLS
Let’s be simple.
In 2017 Thames hit 31 homers with a big fly every 15.1 at-bats.
In 2018 Thames hit 16 homers with a big fly every 15.4 at-bats.
A strained hamstring cost him two months and that, combined with the emergence of Aguilar, limited Thames to half as many at-bats. He still blasted homers at the same pace though. In fact…
In 2017 he had a 24.6 percent HR/FB ratio.
In 2018 he had a 22.9 HR/FB ratio.
Basically, the same thing.
Thames had a 45.4 percent pull rate in 2017.
In 2018 that number was 44.0 percent.
Again, basically the same.
Actually, there was even some positive movement if we compare those two seasons.
In 2017 Thames had a 41.5 percent hard-hit rate.
In 2018 Thames had a 46.0 percent hard hit rate.
In 2017 Thames had an 88.1 mph exit rate.
In 2018 Thames had a 90.9 mph exit rate.
He even lifted the ball more.
In 2017 Thames had a 12.7 percent launch angle.
In 2018 Thames had a 19.2 percent launch angle.
In 2017 Thames had an expected SLG of .457.
In 2018 Thames had an expected SLG of .444.
With his swing and his power, a return to 30 homers seems like a given if he gets 500 at-bats. Easy. He was the same guy last season as he was in 2017, and in fact, in a few key areas he primed his game for an even bigger homer effort.
Thames swings and misses, a lot. He posted a 12.6 percent swinging strike rate in ’17 and saw that mark sky rocket to 15.7 percent in ’18. Amongst players with 250 plate appearances that was 14th worst in baseball. Therefore, it’s not surprising to see him saddled with a K-rate of 34.9 percent, which was ninth worst. He’s not quite Joey Gallo, but truth is, he could be the NL version of Gallo. Multi-position eligibility, massive power, too many strikeouts and better in an OBP league.
In 2017 Thames had a .286 Isolated Power mark against righties. In 2018 Thames had a .268 Isolated Power mark, but the real issue for Thames, besides playing time which will be discussed below, is his ineptitude against lefties. Let’s look at his career numbers against both side arms.
|
|
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
wOBA |
wRC+ |
|
vs. RHP |
.254 |
.335 |
.491 |
.338 |
110 |
|
vs. LHP |
.197 |
.260 |
.383 |
.279 |
69 |
It’s fair to question what would happen if Aguilar were to blow his knee out. Would the Brewers allow Thames to play daily, or would they continue to shield him from lefties by finding him some platoon partner?
Finally, the speed component. As note in Speed – Basepath Effectiveness, there is some hidden potential in the legs of Thames. It’s actually not really hidden. I mean, the guy went 40/40 in 2015 in the Korean Baseball Organization. Delving back into the speed piece, Thames was fifth in baseball in Speed Score last season (minimum 250 plate appearances). I’m not going to foolishly predict some outlandish steals number, but I also wouldn’t be surprised, not in the least, if he stole 10 bases, and that would give him a lot of added value at a corner infield spot in fantasy.
PLAYING TIME
Thames appeared at first base 27 times last season and he was used in the outfield 37 times. Obviously, that means he should qualify at both positions in every fantasy league this coming season. The Brewers plan to use Jesus Aguilar at first base with an outfield consisting of Ryan Braun, Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich. Pretty obvious that Thames is the top backup at both spots. Braun has appeared in 140 or fewer games in 6-straight years. The last two, it’s been 104 and 125. Cain has been under 142 games in all but one season of his entire career. Aguilar was impressive last season, but his game slowed greatly in the second half as his OPS fell from .995 to .760. He was a different hitter in the second half which might open up more work for Thames organically, even if he’s healthy.
AVERAGE DRAFT POSITION DATA
As of this writing, here is the ADP data for Thames (since February 1st).
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|
|
|
|
Overall |
Position Rank |
|
510.0 |
40th at 1B |
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|
101st at OF |
The Fantasy Guru Rankings can be found by clicking on the link.
CONCLUSION
I have Thames ranked higher than the general community. I like his overall offensive game, think there is some untapped stolen base potential, and like the multi-position thing going for him. Thames is an example of “skills not role.” It’s undeniable that he’s without a spot in the starting lineup, but that’s as of today. Could that change, thrusting these skills into a starring role? You bet. Regardless of whether you agree with my call versus the ADP, it’s patently obvious that you could split the difference and basically make Thames one of the last players on your bench rather easily. I’m all in on that.
10-Team Mixed: ADP says that if you target him as your last selection he will be there. I can give the thumbs up to that. However, you can also take the path of ‘I’m not gonna worry about a part-timer in a league this shallow’ and I would not look sideways at you at all. Putting him on your watch list is probably the right move, just now when that Brewers injury strikes, he’s gonna be expensive.
12/15 Team Mixed: The last hitter on your bench. Do it. A 25/10 season is doable, with the chance of a return to 30-homers merely at the whims of the health of his teammates.
NL-Only League: Power, two positions, upside. That’s the type of player I would be investing in.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
