Believe it or not, we are entering the midway point of the AAF regular season. It’s been a pretty wild ride so far with some big ups and equally depressing downs. We’ve built an entire fantasy sport around a brand-new league within a matter of weeks. I’m pretty damn proud of the work we’ve put into this and even prouder of the results. I look at this entire AAF exercise as a challenge to our football analysis. I’ve noticed a lot of so-called fantasy football experts either ignore or fade away from the fantasy AAF. I think they are way too consumed with being fans of the sport that they completely ignore the opportunity and advantage we have here.
After all, do any of you really care whether it’s NFL, AAF, XFL, CFL or any other fantasy league so long as you are cashing chips at the end of the day/week? I sure don’t and I guess that is why I’m rather happy with what we’ve built here.
If you’ve been playing along, you know that the DFS AAF writeups have been pretty damn good. We cashed across the board with an optimal lineup score of 51.2 in week one. Week two was a complete disaster as the optimal lineup didn’t crack 20 points. Then week three we came back with a vengeance to rack up 69.1 points on Fanball with the optimal lineup and have the sixth highest scoring lineup on the entire site.
As I wrote in this space a week ago, I had a real good feeling going in as I had put in a lot of work and uncovered a few trends with each team that we put into play. Sure enough, we absolutely destroyed again with the optimal lineup as seen here:
QB – John Wolford, Arizona – $5700 – 14.8
RB – Trent Richardson, Birmingham – $7600 – 16.2
WR – Rashad Ross, Arizona – $6900 – 16.7
FLEX – Rannell Hall, Orlando – $5000 – 9.7
FLEX – Branden Oliver, Salt Lake – $5300 – 10.1
FLEX – Dontez Ford, San Diego – $4200 – 16.1
TOTAL: 83.6
Surprisingly, this was “only” the third best lineup that I saw on Fanball last week but still cashed across the board again. What’s even better was that I finally got back on track with the AAF bets after two down weeks going 5-1 on the weekend.
If it sounds like I’m bragging…good because I am. But I am also trying to illustrate to you the great advantage we have with DFS AAF here. You can think what you like about the brand of football that the Alliance is providing but if we stay cashing, who the hell cares? Let’s get it!!
Remember that the spot to play DFS AAF is over at Fanball.
Here is the DFS AAF Breakdown for Week 5:
Orlando Apollos at Birmingham Iron – Saturday, 2pm ET
Orlando
- The Apollos have the best offensive line in the AAF, though they only rate at the third best according to PFF. They are also the highest scoring team in the AAF by a large margin, having scored 118 points while the next closest (Arizona & San Diego) have 84.
- QB Garrett Gilbert is the AAF MVP so far having thrown for the most yards (1071), second best completion percentage (61.9%) and second most TD’s (6).
- The RB situation for Orlando has become complicated with three RB’s, D’Ernest Johnson, De’Veon Smith and Akeem Hunt dividing the snaps & touches. While there is a lot of production to be had here, the committee approach and matchup against Birmingham’s second least fantasy points against defense makes them a fade.
- Orlando has the most productive passing game in the AAF and the Birmingham Iron feature the stingiest pass defense.
- WR Charles Johnson has the most targets (32), receptions (23) receiving yards (410) and second most fantasy points among WR’s (75) in the AAF this season. He also has the third best WR/CB matchup of the week going up against Birmingham CB Jamar Summers.
Birmingham
- Birmingham has the second best run blocking offensive line and second best overall offensive line according to PFF.
- Iron QB Luis Perez has yet to throw a single TD pass this season and is averaging just 8.8 fantasy points per game, least in the AAF.
- RB Trent Richardson is the top fantasy scoring RB in the league having logged 7 total TD’s and at least one in every game this season. Richardson did see Brandon Ross cut into his touches last week however with Ross actually out carrying him 9-8.
- Orlando’s secondary is by far the best in the league according to PFF’s rating system.
- WR Quinton Patton is third in the AAF with 226 receiving yards, first in air yards at 476, third in targets with 27, seventh in receptions with 13 and seventh in red zone targets with 3.
Best Plays
- Trent Richardson, RB, Birmingham – $7300
- Garrett Gilbert, QB, Orlando – $6800
- Rannell Hall, WR, Orlando – $5000
- Quinton Patton, WR, Birmingham – $5500
- Charles Johnson, WR, Orlando – $7900
Salt Lake Stallions at San Diego Fleet – Saturday, 8pm ET
Salt Lake
- According to PFF, Salt Lake has the best offensive line in the AAF ranking first in pass blocking and third in run blocking this season.
- San Diego’s defense has the most sacks (13) in the AAF while Salt Lake has allowed the second most (9) this season.
- RB Branden Oliver is questionable with a groin injury which would leave a lot of production for Joel Bouganon, who himself has scored in three straight games. Don’t be surprised if Terrell Newby, a former Vikings practice squad player sees some action in Oliver’s place.
- San Diego ranks second to last in pass coverage according to PFF this season.
- Stallions WR De’Mornay Pierson-El has been QB Josh Woodrum’s favorite target when healthy this season. But last week Pierson-El drew a tough matchup against Keith Reaser and was held to two catches. This week he has the 4thbest CB matchup against San Diego corner Ron Brooks.
San Diego
- QB Phillip Nelson is expected to miss several weeks with a shoulder injury suffered last week against Memphis. Former Arizona State QB Mike Bercovici will regain the starting role for this week. Bercovici was the Fleet’s original starter in week one but got the hell kicked out of him due to the leaky offensive line.
- Salt Lake has allowed the second most passing yards this season and third most fantasy points to QB’s this season.
- After rushing for over 100 yards in consecutive weeks, San Diego RB Ja’Quan Gardner wet the bed last week against Memphis racking up just six yards on nine carries. Despite the bottoming out, Gardner still leads the league in rushing yards with 287, rushing yards per attempt at 6.7 and fifth in fantasy points with 63.5. Gardner’s touches however are in question with the activation of former Tennessee Titans RB Bishop Sankey who was supposed to be the Fleet’s lead RB before getting injured in the preseason. Sankey will be worked in this week.
- Salt Lake has allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers this year (152) as well as the most receptions (56), most TD’s (4) and second most receiving yards (653) this season.
- San Diego has a huge advantage with their TE Gavin Escobar against this Salt Lake defense. The Stallions have allowed the second most fantasy points to TE’s (36.7) this season while Escobar is first in the AAF in TE scoring (28.4).
Best Plays
- Joel Bouagnon, RB, Salt Lake – $5300
- Josh Woodrum, QB, Salt Lake – $5700
- Bishop Sankey, RB, San Diego – $3000
- De’Mornay Pierson-El, WR, Salt Lake – $5000
- Gavin Escobar, TE, San Diego – $4900
Memphis Express at Atlanta Legends – Sunday, 4pm ET
Memphis
- Zach Mettenberger resurrected the Express passing game last week throwing for a season high of 174 yards (I am NOT kidding), a TD and rushing for another TD in leading them to their first win of the season. The threat of a passing game will do wonders for the Memphis heavy run volume attack.
- It was a bit controversial last week when RB Sherman Badie “started” the game for Memphis over Zac Stacy. Stacy went on to log the most snaps, touches and targets but this is something to monitor going forward.
- Atlanta has given up the most fantasy points to RB’s, most rushing yards and rushing TD’s in the league this season.
- Atlanta has the worst coverage secondary in the AAF according to PFF this season. They have only given up the third most fantasy points to WR’s however and the second least to TE’s in 2019.
- Memphis WR Alton “Pig” Howard has the best CB matchup of anybody this week as he goes up against Atlanta slot CB Carlos Merritt. We have been picking on Merritt for each of the last two weeks and has worked out very well to the tune of 11.2 fantasy points against.
Atlanta
- Believe it or not, the Legends have the top rated run blocking offensive line according to PFF and fourth best overall. That is quite telling as the Legends are also dead last in the AAF with just 44 total points scored this season.
- Aaron Murray will start at QB for Atlanta this week after coming in on the first series of last weeks game, throwing for 254 yards and rushing for 54 more against the Hotshots. Murray led the Legends to the upset road win and definitely presents the team with their best chance to put up points offensively.
- Memphis has allowed the most fantasy points to QB’s this season (77.7).
- Memphis also has surrendered the second most fantasy points to running backs this season (101.7) as well as the second most yards rushing (444) and second most receiving yards to RB’s (93) this season.
- Atlanta is using a four RB approach which completely crushes each of their fantasy value. Tarean Folston, Denard Robinson, Brandon Radcliff and Lawrence Pittman will all see time with Folston seeing the most snaps but few red zone chances.
Best Plays
- Alton “Pig” Howard, WR, Memphis – $4600
- Zach Mettenberger, QB, Memphis – $6100
- Aaron Murray, QB, Atlanta – $5900
- Zac Stacy, RB, Memphis – $6300
- Tarean Folston, Atlanta – $4200
San Antonio Commanders at Arizona Hotshots – Sunday, 8pm ET
San Antonio
- QB Logan Woodside has the second highest air yards (1229) this season and was second in passing yards going into last week.
- Woodside has been sacked the second most of any QB in the AAF (9) but Arizona features the second worst pass rush according to PFF and second least sacks (8) in the AAF this season.
- San Antonio has the most rushing yards of all 8 AAF teams this season (497) and Kenneth Farrow has become their bellcow back in recent weeks. Farrow is second in the league in rushing yards (280), third in fantasy points (49.7) and third in snap percentage (68.6%) over the last three weeks.
- WR Mekale McKay has been a standout for the Commanders this year. He has run the third most routes (128), second in targets (31), fourth in receptions (13), third in receiving yards (226) and fourth in fantasy points (41.6) among WR’s. But he has the toughest CB matchup in the league this week drawing CB Robert Nelson who owns the fourth best CB rating according to PFF this season.
- WR De’Marcus Ayers has the best CB matchup in this contest, but will see his snaps cut due to the return of WR Riley Smith.
Arizona
- After scoring 62 points over the first two games, both wins, the Hotshots have mustered just 26 points over the last two, both losses.
- Arizona has the second-best pass blocking offensive line but the worst run blocking line in the league.
- Hotshots QB John Wolford has thrown for the third most passing yards (780), second most passing yards per attempt (7.5), most passing TD’s (8) and second most total fantasy points in the AAF this season.
- San Antonio has surrendered the most passing yards (1032), most air yards (1411) and second most fantasy points to QB’s this season.
- Despite the terrible play of the Arizona offensive line, RB Jhurell Pressley has rushed for the third most yards (266), fifth best yards per rush attempt (4.9) and fourth most fantasy points by RB’s (47.2) this season.
- San Antonio has allowed the most receiving yards (723), most receiving touchdowns (4) and second most fantasy points to WR’s (144.3) this season.
- Arizona WR Rashad Ross has the second best CB matchup of the weekend going up against San Antonio CB Zack Sanchez, the fourth worst CB in AAF according to PFF.
Best Plays
- Rashad Ross, WR, Arizona – $7400
- John Wolford, QB, Arizona – $6000
- Kenneth Farrow, RB, San Antonio – $6700
- Richard Mullaney, Arizona – $3000** Game Time Decision (knee)
- De’Marcus Ayers, WR, San Antonio – $4400
My #1 Lineup
QB – Aaron Murray, Atlanta – $5900
RB – Trent Richardson, Birmingham – $7300
WR – Rashad Ross, Arizona – $7400
FLEX – Rannell Hall, Orlando – $5000
FLEX – De’Mornay Pierson-El, Salt Lake – $5000
FLEX – De’Marcus Ayers, San Antonio – $4400
AAF BETTING
Orlando Apollos: -4
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