Brian Dozier injured his knee in April (a bone bruise), and though he appeared in his customary 150 games, he just wasn’t the performer he was expected to be. As a now 31 year old second sacker, coming off that down season, lots of folks have seemingly completely put out of their mind the previous four seasons when he was, arguably, the top counting category second baseman in the game. Can he recapture that glory as a member of the Washington Nationals?
31 years old
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Height/Weight: 5’11”, 205 lbs
Position: Second Base
THE NUMBERS
| Games | AVG | HR | RBI | Runs | SB | OPS | |
| 2012 | 84 | .234 | 6 | 33 | 33 | 9 | .603 |
| 2013 | 147 | .244 | 18 | 66 | 72 | 14 | .726 |
| 2014 | 156 | .242 | 23 | 71 | 112 | 21 | .762 |
| 2015 | 157 | .236 | 28 | 77 | 101 | 12 | .751 |
| 2016 | 155 | .268 | 42 | 99 | 104 | 18 | .886 |
| 2017 | 152 | .271 | 34 | 93 | 106 | 16 | .856 |
| 2018 | 151 | .215 | 21 | 70 | 81 | 12 | .696 |
| 162 | .246 | 28 | 83 | 98 | 16 | .768 |
The 2014-17 snapshot.
From 2014-17, Dozier scored 100 runs each year.
No one else in baseball did that.
From 2014-17 Dozier scored 423 runs.
The only man in baseball with more was Mike Trout (434).
Dozier had at least 23 homers each season.
Only two other second basemen did that (Jose Altuve, Dee Gordon).
Dozier had at least 71 RBI each season.
Only one other second baseman did that (Robinson Cano).
Dozier stole at least 12 bases each season.
Only two other other second baseman did that (Altuve, Gordon).
Dozier went 23-71-101-12 each season.
No second baseball hit all five of those numbers more than twice in four seasons (Altuve).
Only one other second baseman in baseball had one season like that (Ian Kinsler).
THE SKILLS
Yes, I know that I spoke to Brian Dozier with Vlad Sedler in the Battle of the Experts section, but with my rankings of Dozier causing a good deal of concern amongst some folks, consternation may or may not be too strong a word, I thought I would dive a bit deeper into Dozier (in addition, that article was written a month ago). It’s like the itch just can’t leave alone. You want to stop scratching, but you just cannot help yourself.
Let me start off by looking at Dozier’s health last season. “The problem was, I started developing some bad habits in my swing. I was landing too soft on my front foot,” he said. “I wasn’t really creating torque. It kind of spiraled out of control.” He wasn’t healthy, stayed on the field, and didn’t produce as expected. That said, let’s look at his effort in the context of second base.
Dozier hit 21 homers last season. That was three more than Rougned Odor.
Dozier had 72 RBI. That was the same total as Ozzie Albies.
Dozier had 81 runs scored. That was three more than Jed Lowrie.
Dozier stole 12 bases. That was the total as Yoan Moncada.
When placing his season in the context of 2018 second basemen, it wasn’t as awful as some folks seem to think. At the same time, he hit .215 so it’s not like I’m going to be able to sit here, with a straight face, and say everything was fine. It wasn’t. Still, I think if you look a bit deeper with Dozier you see that, even with the bum wheel, that he wasn’t that far “off.”
Dozier had an 11.1 percent walk rate in 2017.
He had an 11.1 percent walk rate in 2018.
Dozier had a 20.0 percent strikeout rate in 2017.
He had a 20.4 percent strikeout rate in 2018.
Dozier had a 9.2 percent swinging strike rate in 2017.
He had an 8.2 percent swinging strike rate in 2018.
Dozier had a 34.1 percent hard-hit rate in 2017.
He had a 37.3 percent hard-hit rate in 2018 (a career best).
Dozier had an 87.5 mph exit velocity in 2017.
He had an 86.7 mph exit velocity in 2018.
Dozier had a 16.5 percent launch angle in 2017.
He had a 17.8 percent launch angle in 2018.
Dozier had a 50.4 percent pull rate in 2017.
He had a 49.9 percent pull rate in 2018.
Dozier had a 0.90 GB/FB ratio in 2017.
He had a 0.90 GB/FB ratio in 2018.
Dozier had a 77.7 percent contact rate in 2017.
He had a 79.4 percent contact rate in 2018.
Dozier swung at pitches outside the strike zone at 23.4 percent in 2017 (O-Swing).
He had a 22.5 percent O-Swing rate in 2018.
So what part of all of that seems like last year was anything but normal Dozier? Exactly. Though his fantasy numbers were down, his overall game had an awful lot of similarity to it. In fact, if I were to just look at all the numbers above, and not know what his 5×5 numbers were, I would be led to the conclusion that he was the same old Dozier last season.
Sometimes, the results are better than expected, and sometimes they are worse. That’s just how it goes. When we have results this wildly divergent from expectations, with so much similarity in the overall game and approach of the player, it’s pretty darn difficult not to blame injury and to expect a rebound if there’s a duplicate offing at hand.
It would also help Dozier if his BABIP went up. You read above about all the batted ball similarities for Dozer the last two seasons, yet somehow his BABIP fell from .300 to .240. Maybe we were just looking at a leveling off for Dozier? The .300 mark was a career best. The .240 mark was a career worst. Add the two seasons together and you get the number of .271. That’s right on, I mean an exact match, for his career mark of .271. Again, maybe it was just a leveling off last season? I mean, if you look at it like we have bene looking things above, the number was identical to normal Dozier over the two years. If you buy that, things should improve in 2019.
A further factoid that is leading me to my mulligan approach; pitchers didn’t attack Dozier much differently. In 2017 he saw a fastball 59 percent, breaking balls 32 percent and off-speed stuff nine percent. In 2018 those numbers were 61 percent, 30 percent and nine percent.
PLAYING TIME
Dozier will play every day at second base for the Nats. Dozier has appeared in at least 147 games each of the past six years, and he’s been over 150 each of the last five. Dozier is one of four men in baseball to appear in 147 games in 6-straight years, and he’s one of four men who have appeared in at least 150 games each of the last five seasons. It’s debatable that he will hit any higher than fifth or sixth to open the year, but if Adam Eaton gets hurt, as he frequently does, it’s easy to envision Dozier sliding into one of the top-2 spots.
AVERAGE DRAFT POSITION DATA
As of this writing, here is the ADP data for Dozier (since February 1st).
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Overall |
Position Rank |
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135.1 |
13th |
The Fantasy Guru Rankings can be found by clicking on the link.
CONCLUSION
I understand. Dozier is aging, switched teams, and frankly, was about ¾ of the man he was expected to be last season. When I say I understand, I mean I get why his ADP is outside the top-10 at his position as recency bias is a real thing. The takeaway by now should be obvious. I like Dozier a lot more than the general public. That does not mean you should reach for him early in a draft. Be mindful of his ADP, be a little patient, then jump that ADP by a couple of rounds and watch the positive results role in.
10-Team Mixed: The ADP says middle infielder. History, and your truly, say he’s a starter here.
12/15 Team Mixed: In the 14-team mixed league for the FSTA, I rostered Dozier in the 7th round. That might have been a round early, but back then we really didn’t have a good handle on the ADP. Plus, I judged that waiting a round on starting pitching would still give me some solid options, and I think it worked out. The bottom line is that I practiced what I’m preaching here, so you know that I believe in Dozier.
NL-Only League: I like stability with players in league specific setups. When I see 150-games year after year, I think ‘that’s a guy I want on my team.’ When I look deeper at the skills, note that they were better than the production that was offered the previous season, I’m more than willing to take advantage of a market that is undervaluing the player.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
