Ray Flowers and Vlad Sedler take counter positions on a single player, one for, one against. Which one of our experts do you agree with? Does either strike a knockout blow? Is there a TKO? Is there a need for another round? Two or our best analysts give their thoughts on a player for the upcoming season allowing you to be the judge as to which side makes the stronger argument, for or against the player. If you want to discuss this, or anything else further, spend some time in our Live Chat where we do our best to answer any questions that you might have.
Josh Donaldson
By Ray Flowers
When a guy has an issue that lingers, seemingly forever, you have to be concerned. In the case of Josh Donaldson, it’s that damn calf issue that he could never get over. The last two seasons he appeared in just 165 games, and at 33 years of age he’s entering the danger zone of a player’s body starting to fail to comply, but check out how productive he was in those 165 outings: .262-41-101-95-4 with a .900 OPS. Donaldson was beat up, in and out of the lineup, constantly less than 100 percent (he couldn’t even make the throw across the diamond at times last season because of his shoulder). Even last season, at his absolute worst, he still was able to post a .801 OPS and a pace that would have led to about 25 homers. Usually I would avoid such a guy, but the line I draw in the sand is that Donaldson isn’t just a guy. He’s much, much better than that. His career numbers won’t stand out in any appreciable manner, he got started too late, but the guy has a .874 career OPS, Adrian Beltre just retired with a .819 mark, and the mark has been above .935 in 3-of-4 seasons. Donaldson make solid contact for a power hitter (his seven-year high last season was a 24.7 K-rate), takes walks with the best of them (over 14 percent in the walk rate column the last three seasons), and was one of the earlier proponents of the launch angle crazy. I’m not predicting a run to the MVP award for Josh, but listing him 10th at third base (as of March 10th) doesn’t show me to be expecting such an effort. Don’t bonkers up and push Donaldson significantly beyond the going rate, but be ready to pounce when the last of the starting third baseman are coming off the board in your mixed league.
By Vlad Sedler
There’s a bit of a risk-averse Ray Flowers singing warning songs in my head when it comes to Donaldson. Perhaps it’s me just doubling-down on being right about avoiding him in drafts last season and expecting more injury issues in 2019. There is no doubt that Donaldson had a stretch in his late-20’s and early-30’s where he was one of baseball’s ten best hitters. But now, at age 33, with multiple injuries over the last couple seasons, it is difficult to project him for a full season of at-bats and draft him in among the top-100 picks. Last year’s ailments truly destroyed his season, as he dealt with extremely bothersome shoulder inflammation and had multiple issues with his left calf (in 2017, it was an injury to his right calf). He did sign a massive ($23 million) one-year deal with the Braves and expects to play a big part in their plans to be an offensive powerhouse in this offense with the likes of Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuña and Ozzie Albies. We cannot rightfully assess any advanced stats drop-offs with him the last two seasons since he wasn’t ever truly at full strength, so we won’t even go there. Currently, Donaldson is finishing up his last few simulated games and has been taking healthy swings in the batting cage, but at this stage of the preseason, seeing notes like “Donaldson went 3-for-3 off the pitching coach” aren’t exactly they type of encouraging quotes we’re looking for. Donaldson could very well make me look silly with a big bounce-back season. He could also just produce a mediocre (for him) 28 HR – 100 RBI – .285 line, which would earn his ADP price (through first week of March that’s pick 97 overall). But I’m betting against him being able to fully harness his days of yore and not manage more than 110 games played in 2018. For the sake of Donaldson, his contract and the Braves, I hope I’m wrong.
