Around this time last season, I made a rather bold prediction about Christian Yelich. In hindsight, I may have even been underselling since Yelich did end up winning the National League MVP and easily returned first-round value on what was his best MLB season. As most know, I rode the Yelich train all season, but what most don’t is that I’ve been waiting for the Yelich breakout for quite some time. Not that *most* pro ballplayers don’t work hard, but for those of us who knew of Yelich back in high school, always knew that there was something not only very special about him, but that his work ethic was superhuman – truly on another level. One of my good friends played high school ball with him at Westlake (not far from where I grew up) and for the last several years, I’ve been predicting a NL batting title crown for Yelich.
Since my proclamation came to fruition, I’ve received emails, messages and tweets asking for this year’s Yelich. As if an answer like that could be so easily prognosticated on an annual basis. I don’t want to be full of myself and say I was responsible for Yelich’s ADP increase from around 50 overall in early-March to top-30 at the end of March, but I’m sure my incessant drum-beating played a part. With the Twitter machine and our tight-knit community where we all are in tune with one another’s analysis, helium finds a way of taking off to stratospheric levels as we get close to Opening Day. In fact, we witnessed some high-stakes NFBC Main Event live drafts in Vegas where Yelich was drafted in the early second round (around picks 15 to 18). It was technically a push where all value was essentially sucked out (meaning, Yelich had little margin for error as a second-round pick as opposed to a fourth-round one), but those who took the risk certainly reaped the benefits.
Unfortunately, I’m here to tell you that I don’t have that one guy who I’m convinced yet will be This Year’s Yelich. It’s not something I’m going to force. Last season’s call was something I felt with every fiber of my being (my gut, if you will), and I’m not going to put fabricate an article as a marketing gimmick into attempting to repeat the claim unless somehow, in the next couple weeks, a true revelation just hits me in the head like a brick.
That said, there are several candidates who I’m fond of who can potentially fit the bill. I’m expanding the actual parameters on it this year. My parameters last season was someone in the top-60 ADP who has somewhat broken out in the past and has shown potential of finishing a season with first-round value. This year, I’d like to touch on a few candidates at different ranges in ADP (top-60 and then the dark horses after the top-100) who have a path to providing massive profit in the return of possible first and second round value.
Andrew Benintendi (projection: 24 HR, 89 RBI, 22 SB, 108 R, .292)
Most folks on Twitter trying to pull out of me who This Year’s Yelich is for the most part assumed it was Benintendi. They’re not far off as I do believe Benintendi is the best comp for the purposes of our analysis. He has A LOT going for him. Five-category contributor, great plate discipline (10.5% career BB, 17% K), leadoff man for arguably baseball’s best offense, only 24 years old, first-round pedigree, so on and so on. Through his first two big league seasons, Beni has averaged the following: 659.5 PA, 18 HR, 88.5 RBI, 20.5 SB, 93.5 R, .282 AVG. Even if Benintendi and Mookie Betts swap hitting first and second at some point in the season, we’d just expect more RBI and perhaps a few less stolen bases and runs. Imagine the type of quality meatball pitches Beni is going to see all season with Betts and J.D. Martinez in the lineup behind him? Beni-bashers might point to his middle-of-the-road pop (50th percentile average exit velocity and barrel rate last season), struggles against southpaws (70 less wOBA points last two seasons) and likely inability to sniff the 30-plus homers like Yelich did last year – and that’s all fair. It would be quite the stretch to project for him a massive leap in power this season (16 and 20 HR the last two seasons), but he won’t need to, to qualify for our intents and purposes.
Currently, Benintendi is priced fairly (ADP around 25-30 through most of February, with a high-pick of 20). I’m not advocating necessarily leaping to the end of the first round of 15-teamers to draft him. But I do strongly believe he can get there. With a reasonable projection of 24 – 89 – 22 – 106 – .292, Benintendi falls into my top-13 hitters. He is one of the safest top-30 picks on the board based on age, health, upside, team context and ability to contribute to all five standard roto categories. Exceeding these projections in any spot is just icing on the cake and there is a very good chance that he leads the American League in runs scored. He isn’t someone you need to draft in order to win your league because there’s just so much more to winning – and he’s already priced up there – but I wouldn’t begrudge someone drafting him in the teens (14 – 19 range) if you’ve drafted a big power bat in the first round to compliment his across-the-board production.
Tommy Pham (projection: 21 HR, 85 RBI, 24 SB, 90 R, .285)
This one requires a bit more of a leap of faith, but with anyone who can contribute across all five standard roto categories, Pham has a leg-up on his counterparts to fitting the bill of This Year’s Yelich. Pham has an ADP of 57 in NFBC over the last two weeks (with a high of 45) and our biggest concerns with him are reasonable ones. First of all, Pham is a bit of a late-bloomer and you may be shocked to be reminded that he is turning 31 in the second week of March. Secondly, Pham has had a laundry list of ailments over the last few seasons (ankle, foot, groin, two different fingers, shoulder) and is currently dealing with a sore shoulder through the early part of spring. Pham also had surgery for a degenerative eye disease (keratoconus) that his doctors say saved his vision and has him fully cured, but without the guarantee of it not resurfacing in the future.
All in all, not the strongest candidate for our article. But Pham seems to have always won against stacked odds and should be the glue in the middle of a sneaky good lineup that is going to be a thorn in the side of AL East pitchers, and pitchers league-wide. Pham’s 48.5 percent hard-hit rate last season tied for baseball’s fourth-best mark (with Joey Gallo, and behind Matt Carpenter, David Peralta, Eugenio Suarez). He was one of only 19 hitters to score over 100 runs in 2018, doing so with less than 500 at-bats (Mike Trout was the only other to do so) and also posted a top-20 O-Swing% (swings outside the strike zone). The concern with Pham always has been and will be ‘can he stay healthy?’ which is why he’s reasonably priced at the moment. With a full season, Pham could sniff Yelich’18 numbers but spending a top-40 pick is betting on a full season of health and that this current shoulder ailment is a minor one.
Yasiel Puig (projection: 33 HR, 104 RBI, 15 SB, 86 R, .283)
At this point, you likely already know how I feel and have always felt about Puig as I’ve discussed his potential countless times over the years. I do believe that he is on the precipice of a magical roto season, and that 2019 is the year. We’ve seen glimpses of that potential over the years and have also suffered from great roto heartbreak on his account. My biggest concern with Puig the Dodger was always immaturity and its affect on the field. He has had solid roto seasons in the past and has averaged 25 HR, 15 SB over the last two years but has never sniffed the upside we witnessed his rookie year (2013: 432 PA: 19 HR – 66 RBI – 11 SB – 66 R – .319). In fact, 2013 was the last time Puig actually displayed a propensity to hit left-handed pitching (.427 wOBA vs LHP, .388 vs RHP). Since that season, Puig’s wOBA against lefties has been nearly 60 points lower, culminating in a stark contrast in 2018 (.270 v LHP, .390 v RHP). Not to mention considerably lower ISO (50 points) and four percent higher strikeout rate when facing southpaws. Figuring out lefties is the key to Puig posting that season many of us have dreamed of. Not doing so could cost him at-bats against lefties, especially if that crowded outfield (with Jesse Winker, Scott Schebler, Matt Kemp) is healthy. Though licking bats may not be the best sign of it, Puig has truly matured over the last couple of years. He recently turned 28, has a young family and doesn’t have the same distractions he once had in the City of Angels (unless you consider Skyline Chili one). He has yet to smash 30 homers in a season, but I’m bullish on his ability to do so playing half his games in a very friendly hitters’ park. Puig’s soaring ADP (from mid-80’s overall to mid-50’s) leaves little margin for error. I’m still willing to take a shot expecting Puig to post the best offensive season of his career in 2019.
Dark horses
David Dahl (projection: 28 HR, 93 RBI, 12 SB, 86 R, 283) – A very polarizing pick, there are many analysts who believe Dahl is fully priced in the 60-75 overall range and are concerned with his injury history. Keep in mind that last season’s injury was derived from fouling a ball off his foot and what kept him out for most of 2017 was a stress reaction to a rib injury that Spring Training that he did not give ample time to heal. The former 10th overall pick turns 25 on April 1 and is looking at his unfortunate past through the rear-view. We should still expect some struggles against southpaws but a fine final month of 2018 (.287 – 9 HR – 27 RBI in 94 PA) provides us with a dash of optimism of Dahl’s true upside as a hitter. There’s intrinsic value for a guy of his pedigree hitting in the middle of this lineup with half his game’s at Coors Field and my prediction is that he easily out-earns his *current* ADP.
Michael Brantley (projection: 17 HR, 94 RBI, 13 SB, 98 R, .305) – A longshot because Brantley will be hard-pressed to hit 20 homers in his age-32 season, but it isn’t out of the realm of possibilities. Better yet, Brantley will be in an even more advantageous lineup position than he was in Cleveland hitting between the likes of Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa in what could easily be baseball’s most prodigious run-producing offense. Brantley is one of the game’s most patient hitters over the last half-decade (sub-10 percent K rate in 2018, 10.7% for his career), is a career .295 hitter and could eclipse 200 runs and RBI combined with 600 plate appearances under his belt.
Brandon Nimmo (projection: 19 HR, 66 RBI, 16 SB, 94 R, .274) – We’re now in the deep range of dark horses with a guy who is consistently being drafted beyond the top-150. Mets’ GM Brodie Van Wagenen has pieced together a lethal offense this offseason and Nimmo leading the NL in runs scored could be a sneaky good futures bet if you can find it online or in the sportsbooks. His downside is apparent as he’s a bit swing-happy at times (near 27 percent career K rate) but he could potentially crank 20 dingers out of the leadoff spot and swipe 20-plus bags if he continues to take walks like he has the past season-and-a-half (15 percent rate). Nimmo could also lose his leadoff gig to Amed Rosario at some point if he struggles. But if there’s one guy I can easily see returning top-50 overall value who is available 100 picks later, it’s Nimmo.
Austin Meadows (projection: .284, 23 HR, 75 RBI, 16 SB, 77 R) – Quite the stretch for this piece, but nevertheless, someone I’m expecting to exceed current value as he’s being drafted in the same ballpark as Nimmo (150 – 190 overall range). We have seen some draft season helium with Meadows based upon our assumption he locks down the everyday right field gig, because he has a history of making good contact, flashed promise in his promotion with the Pirates last season and offers a possible contribution across all five standard roto categories.
If you look back at Yelich’s 2018 season, it was truly epic. Let me show it to you again: 36 HR, 110 RBI, 22 SB, 118 R, .326. It was fueled by an other-worldly second half (25 HR, .367) that very few in baseball – let alone the group above – are capable of. What we witnessed with Yelich last year was pure magic. Rather than trying to hit on that one difference-maker, it behooves us to remember that fantasy success is a sum of all parts that includes FAAB/waivers, smart lineup decisions, drafting with an eye for spotting market inefficiencies, and a bit of luck. Yelich was a difference-maker in 2018, but more so for those of us who drafted him at 55 overall in early-March in comparison to folks who took him in the top-25 later that month. Some from our group here could be part of the winning equation. But at the end of the day, it’s all about being mindful of these draft season market trends and utilizing them as one portion in our analysis as we construct the best fantasy teams that we can.
