One of the most important indicators of future success for NFL prospects is draft position. If you’re skeptical of that fact, check this out (https://www.fantasyguru.com/nfl/articles/general/rb-and-wr-success-probability-charts-2018-review). While where a player goes on draft day isn’t the be-all and end-all of their career, historical trends suggest the earlier a player is drafted, the higher their likelihood of NFL success will be. Considering that general rule and considering things like Best Ball drafts and pre-draft rookie drafts create a need for foresight on rookies, projecting draft position in an accurate manner is valuable.
Finding accurate ways to evaluate prospects for the NFL draft isn’t an easy process, but it is possible. The NFL leaves behind a lot of clues pertaining to what they look for, and over three decades of drafts in the seven-round format, many trends have evolved. While there’s a lot of factors to account for, and injury/off-field red flags are sometimes impossible to register, it’s a plausible process. The general perception of the NFL draft is that a prospect’s stock shifts wildly throughout the months before the draft, but based on historical thresholds, this simply isn’t the case. A players value directly correlates to their production profile and how they test out athletically. While there’s certainly nuance and differing scenarios, almost all factors are set after the combine. Two NFL teams may value a prospect in an incredibly different light, but over 32 teams, over seven rounds, over decades, there’s a balance.
Each position is different, but here’s some of the main factors taken into account:
- Height
- Weight
- BMI (Body Mass Index)
- Level of Competition
- College Production
- Athletic Testing
- Injury History
- Off-field Red Flags
Let’s take a look at where these players land.
(Color Codes based on historical draft round success probability charts as referenced in first paragraph)
QUARTERBACK
Heading into the combine, the only BIG question for Quarterbacks (QB) was the height of Kyler Murray. While Murray was always going to be a round one selection, coming in slightly above 5-foot-10 likely alleviated concerns for some NFL teams (As silly as that sounds). Beyond that, this is a really straightforward draft. Tyree Jackson and his incredible 40 time could boost him a couple rounds, but round three or four feels like a safe range considering his lackluster college production. QB has the least to go on as far as historical threshold research, so the public is at the will of NFL decision-makers, but at least for fantasy purposes, players like Murray and Haskins are straight forward.
RUNNING BACK
This is shaping up to be one of the least impressive Running Back (RB) classes in the last decade, and that fact is enhanced because of the prolific 2017 and 2018 classes. For the first time in four seasons, it appears unlikely that there will be a round one selection. Josh Jacobs has certainly seen a meteoric rise in perception since the end of the 2018 season, but there’s a few factors that make it unlikely he reaches the high marks currently slated for him. While he did player for an incredibly crowded Alabama backfield, Jacobs never crested 1,000 yards from scrimmage in a single college season, something every running back selected in round one has done since 2000. There’s no doubt Jacobs is talented, and it can’t be RULED OUT that he’ll be find his way into late round one, but based on historical thresholds, he’d be the first of his kind. There should be a large cluster of RBs taken in round two and three, along with another cluster forming in round five and six.
WIDE RECEIVER
The 2019 wide receiver (WR) class infused some of the best athletic testing the position has seen at the combine in the last decade. Between some special forty-yard dash, vertical and other agility times, this class vaulted themselves much higher than a lot of their production profiles indicated. With elite athleticism usually comes volatility in draft round range of outcomes, but thankfully most of the top athletes were already considered top-end talents. Players like Miles Boykin and Darius Slayton both had lackluster production profiles, but their athletic testing has buoyed what could have been draft day falls. Andy Isabella running a 4.31 forty-yard dash levels out some of the bias he would’ve received from playing at a smaller school and is almost securely in the round two range. As there are every year, a medical red-flag or two at this position will come out before the draft. Adjusted accordingly.
TIGHT END
Tight End (TE) is always an important position to monitor combine week. Noah Fant annihilated athletic testing. Doing his best Vernon Davis impression, Fant tested like he was built in a lab, throwing 95th or higher percentile times out there in all tests, cementing his status as the top TE in this class, and a lock top 20 selection. Fant certainly could vault himself into the top ten with this performance, but for now the range is a little wider. Beyond that, his college teammate T.J. Hockenson was the only other TE to really impress. There should a big cluster of TEs to land in the round three and four, and another in round six.
Final Notes
As mentioned in a few areas, there are still medical and off-field leaks to be monitored. Every year there are a few prospects that slide significantly because of an injury deemed degenerative that gets flagged by combine doctors. Sometimes those reports don’t get out until a week before the draft, sometimes they happen the week after the combine. That information gets out when the interested parties determine it should. It’s important context. There will be a few updates with tweaks as the process goes along, but an initial update is a good base to use for now.
