FGE

DFS AAF Breakdown: Week 4

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The first week of AAF football couldn’t have gone better. Football was back on my television, there were some high-quality performances by former NFL players, Orlando and Arizona looked like the Patriots and Rams, we found DFS AAF over on Fanball and online books came out with lines for us to bet on.

The results were even better. After five AAF fantasy football drafts, I won three of my matchups that first week, swept all of my DFS entries and went 4-2 in betting on the games. Life was good.

Since then, the results haven’t been up to my standards. My 100% investment in Francis Owusu has completely bombed out, I got my teeth kicked in DFS the following week and my bets have gone 1-6 since that opening week. What is the hell is going on? I’ve spent the last week asking myself the same question.

The thing that I’ve learned over the last two weeks was something I should have known from the start in that the AAF is not the NFL. Sure, football is football and the game flows are not surprising whatsoever. But the thing that the AAF does that is really hard to get used to is the constant rotation of players. Nobody outside of the QB’s play 70% or more snaps. Our investments in running backs, wide receivers and tight ends have failed to meet anybody’s expectations as a result. Yes, even Trent Richardson who is averaging a whopping 2.4 yards per carry, is producing great fantasy numbers but not in the manner we would have guessed.

But this is OK by me. In fact, I relish the challenge to be honest with you. It has been a long time since I’ve felt as out of touch as I did last week watching my AAF results and thus I am incredibly bothered and motivated. I’ve spent a lot of time rewatching these games (NFL Network and CBS Sportsnet has been replaying them late at night) and analyzing the playing time for all eight offenses.

The other thing that I am implementing this week is a much lower expectation for overall fantasy performance. You see, the scores that are winning aren’t all that impressive. In reviewing my DFS lineups I notice that I’ve invested way too much in players from one team or game. This has caused many, many zeroes which is crazy disheartening. At this point I have a very good understanding of how these teams are using their RB/WR/TE and am going to make my focus of just building lineups with those high-volume players only.

If you’re following my bets over on Guru Elite, you can bet your backside that I’ve been watching these lines all fricking week. My one change this week is not betting anything on the games that I do not have a good feel for. You may have noticed that I was putting a play on every single AAF game so far and in retrospect that was a mistake. I’ll be going heavy this week on the one or two games that I have mastered and leaving the others by the wayside.

Any of you that are concerned about the fantasy results so far, I get it. But those of you who have been with me for the last decade plus should know that I do not lose. It will happen over short periods of time. But I am not going to sit back and let our people get beat up especially by this brand-new league. It’s football, baby. Time to buckle the chin strap and get ready for some contact because the vanilla gorilla has come to rip some throats this week.

Remember that the spot to play DFS AAF is over at Fanball.

Here is the DFS AAF Breakdown for Week 4:

San Diego Fleet at Memphis Express – Saturday, 4pm ET

San Diego

  • Despite being coached by Mike Martz, the Fleet’s passing offense is 6thin the AAF
  • They are dead last in the league in overall offensive line protection according to PFF
  • Despite the offensive line, San Diego is second in the AAF in RB fantasy production (26.0 PPG) and are averaging the most rushing yards per game this season (137.7)
  • WR Nelson Spruce emerged last week catching 4-50-2 and has the best CB matchup this week against Memphis CB Channing Stribling and second best in the entire league
  • The Fleet have surrendered the second most receiving yards per game this season (160.3) and the fourth most fantasy points to wide receivers
  • They have allowed the least amount of fantasy points, receptions, yards and TD’s to tight ends this season

Memphis

  • The Express have replaced QB Christian Hackenberg with former LSU star Zach Mettenberger. Mettenberger went 9-12, 120 yards, 2 TD’s and a two-point conversion while replacing Hackenberg last week against the Orlando Apollos
  • Memphis is a run first offense as evidenced by their second best rushing attempts per game (26.7) this season
  • Despite having the second worst run blocking offensive line according to PFF, Zac Stacy is second in the AAF with 188 rushing yards
  • The Memphis defense is second worst overall according to PFF while allowing the second most fantasy points to QB’s this season (18.7)
  • They have also allowed the most rushing yards per game (131.7) and second most fantasy points to RB’s (30.5)

Best Plays

  1. Ja’Quan Gardner, RB, San Diego – $7000
  2. Zac Stacy, RB, Memphis – $6200
  3. Gavin Escobar, TE, San Diego – $4700
  4. Zach Mettenberger, QB, Memphis – $5500
  5. Nelson Spruce, WR, San Diego – $6000

 

Orlando Apollos at Salt Lake Stallions – Saturday, 8pm ET

Orlando

  • The Apollos have the best run blocking offensive line and the second best overall offensive line according to PFF
  • QB Garrett Gilbert leads the AAF in passing yards, total fantasy points and has yet to throw an interception. Salt Lake has surrendered the third most fantasy points to QB’s (54.7) and have surrendered the most passing TD’s (5) this season
  • RB Akeem Hunt lost his early season grasp on the Apollos RB1 job that now belongs to D’Ernest Johnson, who is averaging 6.6 yards per carry this season
  • Salt Lake has surrendered the least rushing yards per game (73.7) in the AAF this season
  • Salt Lake has given up the second most fantasy points to WR’s (34.3) per game this season. Orlando’s WR’s are averaging the most receiving yards, touchdowns and fantasy points per game this season
  • Apollos WR Charles Johnson has the best CB matchup for Orlando as he goes up against Salt Lake CB C.J. Smith who has allowed the third most fantasy points to WR’s this season

Salt Lake

  • The Stallions have the third best overall offensive line in the AAF according to PFF
  • QB Josh Woodrum missed the second half of week one and all of week two due to a hamstring injury. He returned last week to throw for 178 yards and 1 TD. With Woodrum under center, the Stallions are averaging 4.3 yards per play on offense which would be second in the AAF
  • Orlando has the worst pass rush in the AAF according to PFF
  • Salt Lake has rushed for the second most TD’s (4) in the AAF this season. RB’s Joel Bouagnon and Branden Oliver are splitting carries with Oliver getting majority of passing down work. Orlando has allowed the most targets and receptions to RB’s this season
  • WR De’Mornay Pierson-El is the Stallions most dynamic receiver and it’s not close. What’s more is that he seems to have a great connection with QB Josh Woodrum. Pierson-El has 12 of his 19 targets and 10 of his 13 receptions including his TD last week with Woodrum under center. He draws the third worst CB in the AAF according to PFF I Bryce Canady in coverage this week

Best Plays

  1. De’Mornay Pierson-El, WR, Salt Lake – $6200
  2. Garrett Gilbert, QB, Orlando – $7100
  3. Branden Oliver, RB, Salt Lake – $5300
  4. Charles Johnson, WR, Orlando – $7200
  5. Joel Bouagnon, RB, Salt Lake – $5400

 

San Antonio Commanders at Birmingham Iron – Sunday, 4pm ET

San Antonio

  • San Antonio ranks as the second best run blocking offensive line in the AAF according to PFF
  • Commanders QB Logan Woodside ranks second in the AAF in passing yards (629) and first in air yards (1015). Unfortunately, he also is second in INT (5) and second in sacks (8) this season
  • RB Kenneth Farrow is second among RB’s in the AAF with a 78.2% snap share
  • WR Mekale McKay leads the AAF in targets (27), 4thin receiving yards (207), 2ndin air yards (371) and 4thin fantasy points among WR’s (37.7)
  • Birmingham has given up the least fantasy points to QB’s (31.7), least to RB’s (53.4) and the least to WR’s (78.5) so far this season

Birmingham

  • The Birmingham Iron have the best pass blocking offensive line and best overall rated offensive line according to PFF
  • The Commanders have surrendered the most fantasy points to QB’s this season (59.1) and by far the most passing yards (830)
  • Trent Richardson has been an endzone hero so far this season and has scored the second most fantasy points of any player (71.3). He’s rushed for six TD’s and has received 71.3% of the touches for Birmingham despite averaging only 2.47 yards per carry
  • San Antonio has allowed the third most rushing yards and third most receiving yards to RB’s so far this season
  • Nobody has given up more fantasy points to WR’s as San Antonio (127.7) this season. Opponents have shredded them for an average of 19 targets, 11.7 receptions, 212.3 receiving yards and 1.3 TD’s per game this season
  • WR Quinton Patton draws the coverage of the 5thworst CB in the AAF in Duke Thomas who has surrendered the 4thmost yards per route covered (2.08)

 

Best Plays

  1. Trent Richardson, RB, Birmingham – $7600
  2. Mekale McKay, WR, San Antonio – $6300
  3. Quinton Patton, WR, Birmingham – $6500
  4. De’Marcus Ayers, WR, San Antonio – $5100
  5. Luis Perez, QB, Birmingham – $5400

 

Atlanta Legends at Arizona Hotshots – Sunday, 8pm ET

Atlanta

  • It’s ridiculous that the Legends continue to start Matt Simms at QB over former University of Georgia standout Aaron Murray. Simms threw for a massive 328 yards last week against Birmingham but still tossed three interceptions in the process
  • Arizona Hotshots have allowed the third most fantasy points (23.0) to running backs and second most rushing TD’s (4) to RB’s as well
  • The Legends have had three different RB’s lead the team in touches in each of their three games (Tarean Folston, Akrum Wadley & Lawrence Pittman). Pittman is the RB1 in spirit right now but none of these guys can really be trusted

Arizona

  • The Hotshots offensive line are third in the AAF in pass blocking according to PFF
  • QB John Wolford leads the AAF in TD passes with 7 and is second in yards per pass attempt with 8.2. The Hotshots are averaging 22.4 fantasy points per game from the QB positions, second in the league
  • Atlanta has allowed the most fantasy points to RB’s so far this season (32.0). They have also given up the second most rushing yards most rushing touchdowns this season
  • RB Jhurell Pressley is third in the AAF with 40 rushing attempts and fourth in rushing yards this season
  • Arizona WR’s are second in the AAF in fantasy points (114.4) and tied for the most touchdowns (4)
  • WR Rashad Ross has the best CB matchup in the entire AAF this week as he goes up against Atlanta CB Carlos Merritt. Merritt is the second worst CB in the AAF according to PFF and has given up the most yards per route covered this season (2.73)

 

Best Plays

  1. Rashad Ross, WR, Arizona – $6900
  2. Jhurell Pressley, RB, Arizona – $5000
  3. John Wolford, QB, Arizona – $5700
  4. Montay Crockett, Atlanta – $4400
  5. James Quick, WR, Atlanta – $3600

 

My #1 Lineup

QB – John Wolford, Arizona – $5700

RB – Trent Richardson, Birmingham – $7600

WR – Rashad Ross, Arizona – $6900

FLEX – Rannell Hall, Orlando – $5000

FLEX – Branden Oliver, Salt Lake – $5300

FLEX – Dontez Ford, San Diego – $4200

 

AAF BETTING

Memphis Express: +7

 

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