It’s the most woooonderful time, of the year!
It’s fantasy baseball draft season, or as the kids call it these days – fantasy baseball SZN! Regardless of your preferred nomenclature, there is a special buzz a’flowin’ through the interwebs and on Twitter. Even fair-weather fantasy players are smelling that sweet scent of baseball in the air and are tempted to get their draft on. Mock drafts seem to be a thing of the past as so many seem to be jumping into different formats low-maintenance formats such as NFBC DCs (Draft-and-Holds) and DRAFT’s best balls to help them prepare for real drafts later in March.
The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational (@TGFBI on Twitter), created two years ago by Fangraphs’ Justin Mason, has left a welcomed footprint on our community. The largest collection of industry leagues in fantasy baseball, TGFBI is an overall competition of 5×5 standard roto with over a dozen 15-team leagues drafting in slow-draft format, all at once. TGFBI has been a focal point of the last week with analysts and writers within the fantasy baseball community sharing picks and thoughts as they draft. For those just starting to get a feel for who’s who in the industry, you can probably already sense the light-hearted competition and camaraderie among us. Without offending the football folks, it’s quite clear that our giant group of ‘experts’ and ‘fanalysts’ are – for the most part – very approachable on Twitter and happy to help out.
Speaking of camaraderie, I can’t say it enough. If you love fantasy baseball and want to enjoy one of the best weekends of the year, I highly recommend making it out to the NFBC weekends in Las Vegas, New York or Chicago in late March. There are different live draft offerings, and yes, some are a pretty penny ($1000 and up for league entry – the Main Event is the ultimate overall competition with a $150,000 top prize) so they aren’t realistic for everyone. But those ready to take their game to the next level and compete against some of the best definitely won’t be disappointed. There is simply nothing like sitting at a table with good peeps and drafting live. As an alternative to meet some of your favorite writers on Twitter, a couple hundred of us also gather for the Arizona Fall League every November where we take part in a full-on fantasy baseball conference, watch the future stars of MLB live and even participate in some free drafts and auctions. That’s a much more affordable entry point for those who can’t swing the live NFBC drafts.
Category Targets
This week I wanted to dive into category targets for 12- and 15-team standard 5×5 roto categories. Every single one of us has ur own approach and level of seriousness when it comes to drafts. Most people don’t seek out category targets as they draft, but those who did certainly have an advantage over their counterparts.
By targets, I mean the total number (or average, in the case of AVG, ERA, WHIP) you hope to attain in each of the standard 10 roto categories for your starting hitters and pitchers. Though each league setup is different, for these traditional leagues, I like to use the standard NFBC setup of 14 hitters and nine pitchers (23 total starters) for our discussion, where these leagues draft 30 total players (seven on bench). Standard roto categories are of course: AVG, R, HR, RBI, SB for hitters and W, SV, ERA, WHIP, K for pitchers. Position-wise, it’s C (x 2), 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, UT, OF (x5) and nine pitchers of any variety (though most in this format typically play six starting pitchers and three relievers/closers).
Some use software like RotoLab to input category targets so you can track what your needs are as you draft. RotoLab uses standard projections for each player from BHQ. You can import projections like Steamer, THE BAT, ATC or any other of your favorites. Some run formulas to take an average of a few different projection systems and others like myself who start this process in December, create our own projections for each player. Quite a tedious task but rewarding since I play about 10 leagues per season and rely on my own data.
As you draft, you can better identify which categories you may be lacking in and what type of players you should target based on their projected 2019 statistical output. Some do this by feel and without software, but this is where experience comes into play. For example, most of us recognize that if we’ve started our drafts with J.D. Martinez and Giancarlo Stanton with our first two picks that we have a good base of power (HR, RBI) and may soon want to turn our attention to drafting hitters who steal bases. But not everyone can look at their roster through 13 rounds of a fast-moving draft and recognize that they may be short on batting average and could use a Yuli Gurriel type in the 14th round because their CI spot is open and he’s the best fit for their team at that current point in the draft.
It’s quite the balancing act, especially when you bring pitchers in the mix having to find that perfect blend of big strikeout arms who might hurt your ERA and WHIP with finesse, control arms who may not strike batters out at an above average clip but can help you in those ratio categories.
Before I present to you last season’s standard 5×5 targets for each category, you must know that these targets can drastically vary from year to year. For example, there were approximately 600 more total MLB home runs hit in 2017 (6,105) than there were in 2016 (5,610) and last season (5,585 in 2018). Almost all of us set higher category targets last draft season (Jan – March 2018) because of the monster power output in 2017. There may have been some folks who believed 2017 was an outlier power season and adjusted projected homers downwards for 2018, but either way, we all missed our targets.
We also saw total MLB strikeouts increase by over 2,000 from 2016 to 2018 (from 39,000 to over 41,000). We can set our targets per category based upon trends we foresee in the upcoming season (more closer committees these days, so perhaps a lower ‘saves’ target?) but we usually have to start somewhere as a base.
Starting somewhere in this case means referencing NFBC data for 12-team (Online Championship) and 15-team (Main Event) using last season’s 80th percentile mark as our guide. Using the 80% mark based on last season’s results is a good guideline for helping us draft teams that are balanced in all categories. Balance in all categories is key for competing for the $150k grand prizes of the OC and Main. Injuries hit early and often – and can throw projections and targets off in a split-second. Category targets aren’t the end-all, be-all. Simply a guideline for us to establish goals for ourselves within a draft. Most of the work is done in-season as we maximize lineup moves based on matchups and work the waiver wire using our FAAB budget.
Note below how our 12-team category targets are higher across the board than 15-team ones, and that should be rudimentary in our understanding. A 30-round 12-team league drafts 360 total players as opposed to 450 total players in a 15-teamer, so the quality of talent in your starting lineup is clearly better in the 12-teamer – hence, the higher category targets.
|
15-TEAM |
|
Per hitter |
12-TEAM |
|
Per hitter |
|
AVG |
0.263 |
|
AVG |
0.266 |
|
|
R |
1,049 |
74.9 |
R |
1,092 |
78 |
|
HR |
295 |
21.1 |
HR |
314 |
22.4 |
|
RBI |
1,008 |
72 |
RBI |
1,056 |
75.4 |
|
SB |
137 |
9.8 |
SB |
145 |
10.35 |
|
W |
93 |
|
W |
96 |
|
|
SV |
79 |
|
SV |
88 |
|
|
ERA |
3.56 |
|
ERA |
3.47 |
|
|
WHIP |
1.18 |
|
WHIP |
1.17 |
|
|
K |
1,444 |
|
K |
1,481 |
|
Hitter Targets
These are typically the easiest categories to target as we draft. Of course, our efforts are only as good as the data we put into it. That means, making sure you’re not using unreasonable projections or ones that may be over-projecting. Having software like RotoLab allows to track and figure out our category needs during the course of the draft. You can do this on paper if you want as well, if that’s your style and you don’t have software to calculate it for you.
With homers for example, our target in 15-teamers heading into the 2018 season was 340 HR (80th percentile mark) and this year that 80th percentile target is at 295, based on last season. We may want to bump our HR target this year (perhaps to 310?) because it’s always good to set your goals higher.
The per hitter calculation is a simple one. That is just the total number per category divided by the number of starting hitters (14). Say we are through 13 rounds in a 12-teamer, noticing our offense currently projects for 17 homers per player, yet we have a handful of speed guys on our team already (say Mallex Smith among them) and are over our projections for steals per player (12.3, where our target is 9.8). Drafting someone like Randal Grichuk who may project for 25 or more home runs may behoove us instead of drafting a power-low option like Odubel Herrera. You get the picture.
Batting average is a different assessment because it’s a calculation and we can’t weigh all players equally. Leadoff hitters will see more plate appearances over the course of a game and a season than a seven-hole hitter- we must incorporate this into our calculation. Jackie Bradley’s .245 with 550 PA hitting ninth has a different impact on your overall AVG category target than .245 at 675 PA of leadoff man Kole Calhoun’s. Software will automatically calculate this as you draft based on your projections input, but if you’re doing this by hand, you’ll have to do the simple math to account for it.
It’s also why batting average drain guys like Joey Gallo are so pivotal to your roster and how you draft hitters once you’ve selected Gallo. Taking on 575 PA of projected batting average between .200 and .225 can be painful if your team doesn’t note and actively address this drain. It can theoretically balance out with the 40-45 homers he may hit, but it doesn’t balance out unless you’re actively targeting hitters in the subsequent rounds who can help boost your batting average. That constant finessing of balance could be a struggle, but it’s fun and part of the challenge. It’s also what differentiates the good high-stakes players from the ones who just have money and draft more casually. A Gallo drafter may pair him up with a Dee Gordon type who offers balance in the categories Gallo is deficient in (SB, AVG).
Pitcher Targets
You probably already know this, but wins are the least projectable. We know this from years of playing, and also from that gut punch we’ve experienced as DFS players when a seventh-inning reliever blows one of our starter’s gems. You probably know the drill here. As simple as it sounds, target above-average skill starting pitchers who have shown the durability to pitch deep into games on good teams (over .550-win percentage projection). You can imagine how your win category will end up if your squad is littered with starting pitchers from the Tigers, White Sox and Marlins (it probably also means that you’ve punted pitching categories altogether!).
Strikeouts are the most easily projectable. And if you lose key starters, you know what your exact focus will be on the waiver wire. Attacking strikeouts in-season is easier too by streaming pitchers in advantageous matchups and those who have two-start weeks. Of course, we must be mindful of ratios in-season. Target starting pitchers who average a strikeout rate over 23 percent (essentially one strikeout per inning) and be mindful of rostering too many Kyle Hendricks, Marcus Stroman types. Finding that perfect blend between ratio benefit and strikeouts is important in-draft, but much of this work is fine-tuned during the season with matchups, two-steps and waiver wire additions.
Saves will be the bane of our roto existence this year, I’m certain of it. I discussed the closer landscape two weeks ago in this column, so be sure to reference it before figuring out your plan of attack for saves. The general rule from previous seasons was that to be competitive in an overall competition with saves is to accumulate 2.5 closers’ worth of saves. A few years ago, that would equate to about 90 saves where your two main guys would log you about 36 a piece and then you’d get your other 15-20 to hit the 80th percentile by striking correctly on a third closer later in your draft or by bidding on the correct ones in-season.
As you can see, that target has declined (79 for 15-teamers based on last season) and your target may be even lower this season if 10-plus MLB teams do, in fact, employ the save-opps by committee strategy. In satellite (no overall prizes) leagues, you can get away with less saves and still compete for the league title being strong in most of the other categories. But in overall competitions like NFBC’s Draft Champions (50-rounds, no in-season FAAB), Online Championship (12-team) and Main Event (15-team), it may behoove us to be more aggressive – either during the draft, or with our FAAB bids during the season.
Hopefully this served as a good primer for category targets and you can now better plan for your drafts, whether that be with software, on paper, or by feel, as you draft. The most important things to keep in mind is that the goal in overall competitions is to draft for both upside and balance. With a FAAB budget, we can take on a certain amount of lumps (our players stinking or getting injured) and still compete all season. But for Draft Day, our efforts are only as good as our inputs (dependable projections and adjusted category targets) and our ability to adjust during a fast-paced live or online draft. Let’s go!
