A former second baseman and shortstop eligible player, Jose Peraza enters 2019 as only eligible at shortstop. That said, he still brings a solid skill set to the table bringing speed and batting average, two traits that are in demand as we enter the 2019 campaign. Some folks seem to look right past Peraza on draft day, so Ray Flowers will explain why that just might be a mistake.
24 years old
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Height/Weight: 6’0”, 195 lbs.
Position: Shortstop
THE NUMBERS
| Level | Games | AVG | HR | RBI | Runs | SB | OPS | |
| 2011-16 | Minors | 532 | .299 | 11 | 204 | 321 | 220 | .726 |
| 2015 | MLB | 7 | .182 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | .568 |
| 2106 | MLB | 72 | .324 | 3 | 25 | 25 | 21 | .762 |
| 2017 | MLB | 143 | .259 | 5 | 37 | 50 | 23 | .622 |
| 2018 | MLB | 157 | .288 | 14 | 58 | 85 | 23 | .742 |
| Per | 162 | .282 | 9 | 52 | 70 | 30 | .700 |
| Baseball America | Baseball Prospectus | MLB.com | |
| 2015 | 54th | 92nd | 38th |
| 2016 | 66th | 81st | 71st |
THE SKILLS
In February of 2017, for another website, I simply wrote an article titled “Draft Jose Peraza.” I’ve had multiple computers blow up over the years, and despite what folks think it has nothing to do with porn (I have another device for that), so I’ve lost some of the gazillion words I’ve written, but I know for certain I was writing about adding Peraza back in preseason 2016. The point is, I’ve long been a fan.
In 2016 I looked like a genius.
In 2017 I looked like a disappointment.
In 2018 I looked like a really smart fella again.
Where are we at in 2019?
Let’s admit something from the start. Nothing in Pereza’s line last season stands out in ‘I’m a must add’ kinda way. Still, let’s break it down quickly.
Peraza hit .288. Thirty-four others matched that mark (batting title qualifiers).
Peraza scored 85 runs. Eight other shortstops matched that (if you include Chris Taylor).
Peraza stole 23 bases. Only 19 others at any position match that.
Peraza went .288-14-58-85-23. Do you know how many players hit all five of those numbers? THREE: Mookie Betts, Mike Trout and Trevor Story.
Obviously, Peraza doesn’t have to get any better in 2019 to be a legit fantasy option up the middle.
After hitting eight homers over two seasons, the jump to 14 homers last season was a surprise. It’s not hard to explain why it happened though. Peraza chose to change his game, apparently doing the old launch angle thing with gusto. After posting marks of 10.4 and 9.9 percent in the launch angle category in 2016-17 the mark rose to 13.4 percent last season (the league average is about 11 percent). Peraza also offered a 38 percent fly ball rate after sitting at 30 percent the previous two seasons. Simple to explain the homer increase. Now, it can be argued that he would be better off going back to the 30 percent level, in fact I would argue that strongly, as I would readily admit that giving up five homers for .015 points in the batting average category would be worth it. The fact is that while some sites while mention ‘he might hit 20 homers this season’ the truth is (A) he shouldn’t even try and (B) he just won’t. Peraza just doesn’t drive the ball well enough to be a 20-homer option, and even 15 is relatively unlikely.
For two seasons, 2016 and 2017, Peraza posted identical 1.50 GB/FB ratios. A lithe guy with speed, that’s were he should be. Last season the number dropped to 0.96 which is lower than the league average as he, again, did the launch angle thing. As a result of the extra fly balls last season his BABIP was .307, a solid mark that was still well off his 2016-17 average (.316). Given his speed it would be logical to think he could even surpass his ’16-’17 mark if he removed some of those fly balls from his game. After all, he did post a career best hard-hit ball rate and his 25.5 percent line drive rate was also an impressive mark (15th best in baseball). Turning back to his hard-hit rate, Peraza posted a mark of 29.5 percent or 126th out of 140 batting title qualifiers. Amongst the 186 players with 300 batted ball events last season he ranked 180th in exit velocity. He just doesn’t hit the ball very hard which is another reason he should revert his approach to 2016-17 levels. Eschew the fly ball Jose, it’s just not your game.
Peraza never walks, about the only aspect of his game that is disinteresting to me, as he took 29 walks last season, a total someone like Joey Votto might pick up in a single month. Peraza also doesn’t swing and miss much with 145 strikeouts the last two seasons. Still, the lack of walks has led to a .319 career OBP which is just slightly above the league average. Just a bit more patience here, and he was at .326 last season, could lead to more options for Peraza to run, something that he needs to do.
Peraza has stolen at least 20-bases each of the last three seasons. He and just nine others have done that. Of that group of nine players, here are the infielders: Trea Turner, Jonathan Villar, Jean Segura and Dee Gordon (sort of). Peraza has a Speed Score of 5.7 to 5.9 percent the last three years (see Speed, Basepath Effectiveness). Amongst players who have appeared at least 1,000 plate appearances the last three years, his 5.9 Speed Score ranks 36th out of 236 players. It should also be noted that his Stolen Base Opportunity Percentage, 32 and 24 percent in 2016-17, dropped to a career low of 16 percent last season. Given the odds that his rate will improve in 2019, one would be fully supported to say that Peraza should steal 20 bases without question if he remains healthy, and that his first season of 25 steals is totally doable.
PLAYING TIME
The Reds might have a messy outfield, but there is much more clarity on the infield. Peraza will be the everyday shortstop for the club, and it seems likely he will hit out of the #2 hole of the 7th spot. That spot in the order could greatly affect his outlook as we could be looking at him losing upwards of 90 plate appearances if he’s hitting in the bottom third of the order.
AVERAGE DRAFT POSITION DATA
As of this writing, here is the ADP data for Peraza (since February 1st).
|
|
|
|
|
|
Overall |
Position Rank |
|
97.3 |
13th |
The Fantasy Guru Rankings can be found by clicking on the link.
CONCLUSION
The truth is that Peraza is who he is. It would not be shocking in the least to see him produce as much value as he did last season. I would expect him to get there a bit differently, a few more steals and a few less homers, but he’s settling in as a very solid option up the middle. He’s not sexy. He’s not likely to break out. He’s also not going to be a top-5 shortstop this season, but after the big names at the position come off the board, Peraza becomes a very appealing option that should aid your pursuit of steals and batting average.
10-Team Mixed: Everyone needs speed, no matter the format. However, in a shallow league like this one, you have to worry about the lack of pop that he will produce (as an example, you don’t want to pair him with a Dee Gordon type). He’s a middle infield option here.
12/15 Team Mixed: Could you get by with him as your starter at shortstop? One-hundred percent you could. If he was your middle infield option though, you would be “winning” as I’m fond of saying. The average/steals production gives him a floor that few possess, and if he can wiggle his way to towards the top of the Reds lineup he could once again score 85 or more runs.
NL-Only League: Invest. I’d like to see a few less fly balls, but with his spot in the lineup on a daily basis, and the wheels, he’s a safe-ish option, certainly given the lowish cost.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
