The NFL Combine is almost here and it’s an incredibly important part of the draft process. This is the first real opportunity NFL teams get at evaluating most of these players up close, and it can be an important factor in determining where a player gets selected on draft day. Between medicals, interviews and on-field athletic testing, there’s an enormous amount of information generated throughout the week, so it’s important to be privy to the prospects (At least somewhat) before the week begins. In this four part series, each piece will review a full position, including a quick run through of each prospects backstory, and a general read on how their week could go.
Tight End (TE) is one of the more difficult positions to evaluate from a production perspective. Because their roles expand beyond receiving the ball, blocking and other qualities can go unnoticed without watching the games. TE is also one of the most athletic positions in the sport. Beyond defensive end, the combination of size, speed and overall athleticism at TE is unmatched. With that considered, the combine is an incredibly important week for this group, and and will likely determine some of the closer decisions made on draft day.
MOST TO GAIN
Irv Smith (TE, Alabama) — Alabama is certainly subtle about their top pedigree tight end usage. Smith, much like 2017 first round pick O.J. Howard, didn’t see many opportunities in his first couple seasons with the crimson tide. After sitting out his freshman season, Smith saw only 128 receiving yards in his sophomore season. After that start to his career, it was valid to question what type of upside he possessed. Insert quarterback Tua Tagovailoa into the fold, and Smith found himself a breakout junior season. Smith accumulated 710 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns in 2018, and truly asserted himself as one of the nations top pass-catching tight ends. Smith is small (listed at 6 foot 4 and 241 pounds) in comparison to the average tight end, but it’s very likely he’ll be deployed as a receiving-based weapon. Smith should test out well and land in the top two rounds of the NFL draft.
Noah Fant (TE, Iowa) and T.J. Hockenson (TE, Iowa) — Fant and Hockenson are a legendary duo at this stage in the process. Between the legendary workout warrior stories and the incredible athleticism displayed when given opportunity in the low-volume Iowa passing game, these two TEs bring a ton of excitement to the combine. Over the last two seasons the Iowa offense threw for 2,468 (2017) and 2,946 (2018) yards, and beyond the two tight ends, were largely ineffective. Both prospects are known to be incredibly athletic, and are two of the more hyped prospects, of all positions, entering combine week. Both players are projected to be drafted in the top two rounds of the NFL draft, and there’s strong reasoning behind that. There’s no need to get into subjective practice reports, but it’s been believed Fant has a vertical around 42 inches, and Hockenson could fall into a similar range.
Alize Mack (TE, Notre Dame) — Mack is a player that got shunned for most of his career. After coming to Notre Dame as a highly sought after high school prospect (four star recruit on Rivals), Mack struggled to find receiving yards in his first two seasons. With Brandon Whimbush at the helm, receiving yards were tough to come by. But, Ian Book shifting into a starting role early in 2018 created an opportunity for Mack as a senior. Mack finished 2018 with only 360 receiving yards and three touchdowns, but became a significant part of the receiving game after Book took over. Mack should test out with solid athleticism, and could bump himself into a mid-round selection (round three through five) if everything goes well.
MOST TO LOSE
Isaac Nauta (TE, Georgia) — Speaking of high school pedigree, Nauta had a lot of that coming into his freshman year at Georgia. Nauta was ranked as the 23rd overall prospect in the 2016 recruiting class, and the top of his position (Rivals). Nauta battled for three years as an integral part of the run-heavy Georgia offense, and provided a positive impact in a lot of facets. While he didn’t produce much in the receiving game (936 receiving yards in three seasons), there wasn’t much opportunity for ANYONE to produce. Nauta profiles as an every down type TE in the NFL, but he’ll have to answer athleticism concerns before he’s locked into a top three round NFL draft selection. Nauta is not known for his athleticism, and compared to some of the highly athletic specimens that he’ll be competing with, there’s certainly opportunity for a negative perception change. Nauta is a safe prospect, but will need to hit expectations to have a good week.
Caleb Wilson (TE, UCLA) — Wilson is listed as one of the smaller (from a body mass index perspective) tight end prospects in the 2019 draft, and it’s unlikely he’ll be a full time player in the NFL. What Wilson did display over the last couple of seasons is that he’s an exceptional receiving down weapon. Wilson struggled with injuries in 2017, mainly a foot issue. Medicals will be important, and Wilson checking out ok would be big (foot injuries tend to linger). Wilson was a highly productive player in his final season at UCLA despite the offense being putrid, producing 965 receiving yards on 60 receptions (16.1 per reception). Wilson isn’t a liability after the catch, but he doesn’t appear to have the athletic ability to produce in that area in the NFL. Wilson should be a mid-round selection (round three to five), but could slip if it’s revealed he’s a subpar athlete.
Jace Sternberger (TE, Texas A&M) — Sternberger was a pleasant surprise for Texas A&M in 2018. After producing five receiving yards in his first two seasons (At Kansas), Sternberger jumped into the starting rotation and led the Aggies in receiving yards in 2018 (247 more than anyone else). Sternberger was a great weapon all over the field, but especially the red-zone, which could foreshadow the type of role he’ll eventually play in the NFL. Sternberger was able to dominate in the secondary, specifically breaking tackles on smaller conerbacks. However, he wont possess that type of physical advantage in the NFL. There’s concerns about Sternberger’s weight-adjusted athleticism, and while he does have skills that can even that out, there’s reason to believe he could slip if athletic testing doesn’t go as planned.
OTHERS
Drew Sample (TE, Washington) — Sample is a TE from Washington who stayed all four years, but consistently found trouble as a receiving down weapon. Sample’s final season was his only above 106 receiving yards, and that was mainly because Sophomore starter Hunter Bryant was sidelined for the first portion of the season with a knee injury. Sample should find his way onto an NFL roster, but it’s unclear if the path will be through the draft. It is encouraging to see that Sample received a combine invite, but it’s unlikely he’ll show himself to be an above average athlete at his position. Sample has displayed solid upside as a blocker, and will likely make his NFL way in that facet rather than becoming a receiving down threat.
Kaden Smith (TE, Stanford) — Stanford continues its trend as a TE factory. Smith was a solid focus of the limited passing game over the last two seasons, and showed major upside as a receiving down threat. Smith has a solid frame (listed at 6 foot 5 and 250 pounds) and has displayed potentially elite ball skills in contested catch situations. Because of those two factors, his athleticism isn’t quite as important as other prospects. Smith should test out as an average athlete, though there’s potential for high upside in the vertical. Smith should be a top three round selection in the NFL draft, and have high upside as a fantasy contributor considering his skillset.
Tommy Sweeney (TE, Boston College) — Boston College isn’t subtle about their offensive gameplan, specifically over the last two seasons. Since running back A.J. Dillon came to town, Boston College has become one of the most run-heavy offenses in the nation, which obviously limits upside for their receiving options. Sweeney found differing levels of success throughout his career as both a receiver and blocker, and should be able to find, at the very least, a part-time role in the NFL. Sweeney is not an elite athlete, and NFL scouts aren’t likely worried about what he brings to the table athletically. Still, it may be in his best interest to sit out some of the main tests (forty yard dash, vertical). Sweeney is very, very likely to be a late round NFL draft pick (sixth or seventh round) of undrafted.
Kahale Warring (TE, San Diego State) — San Diego State is known for being a run-heavy team, and they were most certainly that in 2018. Considering there was only 2,433 passing yards to go around, the 372 Warring accumulated (15.3 percent of the offense) is solid in context. Warring has solid size (listed at 6 foot 6 and 250 pounds) and could surprise in athletic testing. Warring isn’t much of a blocker, and will be used primarily as a receiving down player, but it’s unclear how much NFL scouts value what he did at San Diego State. Warring is likely a late round (round six or seven) to undrafted prospect barring surprising in athletic testing.
Trevon Wesco (TE, West Virginia) — Wesco was a player that didn’t emerge as a receiving option until his final season, and even then he didn’t produce much. In Wesco’s final season, he accumulated 26 receptions and 366 receiving yards, though that only accounted for only 8.7 percent of the total yards. Wesco is a big-bodied tight end (listed at 6 foot 4 and 275 pounds) who will likely make his NFL path as a blocker. While the receiving production is nice, this likely isn’t the prospect to look at as a fantasy difference-maker. Wesco isn’t likely to test out well if he does participate in athletic testing, and will likely end up as a late round selection (round six or seven).
Dawson Knox (TE, Mississippi) — Knox is a player that struggled to find playing time throughout his time at Mississippi. Knox produced 605 receiving yards in his four seasons, and while that’s an ugly number, there’s some legitimate reasons. First of all, TE Evan Engram was the starter for the first two years of Knox career, which he obviously wasn’t going to overcome. Along with that, top tier prospects A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf and DaMarkus Lodge held onto a large portion of the receiving yardage as well. This was not an easy situation to break through on, and it’s fair to ponder if Knox could’ve been a big time contributor at a different school. Knox appears to be a solid athlete, and could benefit from the athletic testing process. He projects as a middle round prospect (round four to six), and could hit the high end of that if the combine goes well.
Foster Moreau (TE, LSU) — Moreau is a versatile prospect who excels as a blocker. There isn’t much to go on as far as receiving down prowess, so it’s tough to expect much from him at the NFL level. Moreau never crested 300 receiving yards in a single season in his four year career, with the highest being 278 in 2017. It’s very unlikely Moreau will be an early round selection, and it’s tough to gauge how well he’ll test athletically. It is intriguing he received a combine invite, so that’s a positive, but ultimately this isn’t a prospect that projects as someone with fantasy potential.
Josh Oliver (TE, San Jose State) — Oliver was one of the top tight end producers in the Nation in 2018, dominating the San Jose State offense with 56 receptions, 709 receiving yards and four touchdowns. Oliver was second on the team in receiving yards in 2018, trailing wide receiver Tre Walker by only five yards. San Jose State was an undeniable disaster in 2018, winning only one game (and losing 11 times) and producing only 21.2 points per game (117th Out of 130 Division 1 teams). Oliver isn’t likely to be an early round draft pick, but he should test out relatively well athletically. Oliver sets up as a receiving down option, and if a team takes a chance on him late in the draft, could be a player to watch in fantasy football.
Dax Raymond (TE, Utah State) — Raymond spent four years at Utah State, and provided interesting film as a receiving down option. Specifically in his redshirt Sophomore season, Raymond was a significant part of the passing game. Raymond finished 2017 with 456 receiving yards, good for second on the team. While he isn’t a dynamic athlete, Raymond has nice size and ball skills. Raymond will be battling for one of the last tight end spots in the NFL draft, and if he can test out slightly below average, it could be enough to get selected.
Kendall Blanton (TE, Missouri) —Blanton spend his entire career as a backup, and only saw increased opportunity in his final season due to an injury to Missouri’s star tight end Albert Okwuegbunam. Blanton never crested 200 receiving yards (most was 177 in 2018) in a single season, and was utilized much more as a blocker than receiving type weapon. Blanton likely does have an NFL future as a blocker, but is unlikely to test well, and almost assuredly won’t be a fantasy asset in the NFL. Blanton has struggled with injuries throughout his career, and medicals will be very important.
Keenen Brown (TE, Texas State) —Brown is a bit of an unknown. After spending three seasons at Oklahoma State as a wide receiver, Brown made the choice to grad-transfer to Texas State in 2018 to get an opportunity at playing tight end. Brown is listed at 250 pounds, and there could be truth to that, but what his official measurements at the combine are will be important. Brown led Texas State in receiving yards by a significant margin, accumulating 577 of their 2186 passing yards (26.4 percent). Brown has a big opportunity to prove himself as a plus athlete at the combine. If he can show to be an above average athlete, then a late round selection (round six or seven) could follow. If not, then he’ll likely have to work his way to the NFL as an undrafted player.
C.J. Conrad (TE, Kentucky) —Conrad was a four year player for Kentucky, and served as a significant contributor for all four seasons. Conrad’s biggest issues have come with injuries. In fact, Conrad already missed the Shrine Game due to a shoulder injury. Through his four year career, Conrad played, 6, 10, 7 and 12 games, and despite being an effective player, never produced significant volume in a single season. Kentucky is a run first team that struggles to throw, but injuries were the biggest hinderance. Conrad has nice size (listed at 6 foot 5 and 250 pound). Conrad has displayed solid ball skills throughout his career, and could be a steal as a late round selection if he can stay healthy.
Zach Gentry (TE, Michigan) — After coming to Michigan as a quarterback, Gentry found a home as a tight end, and thrived by the time he was a Senior. Gentry is arguably the biggest TE in the draft (listed at 6 foot 8 and 260 pounds). Gentry is a long and lean prospect who thrived running deeper routes than most TEs. Gentry was a featured player by Michigan in his final season, accumulating 514 receiving yards (third on the team) on only 32 receptions. It’s tough to tell on film just how athletic Gentry is, but it’s also unclear if it matters considering his natural physical advantages. If Gentry can test out around average for his weight, he shouldn’t last beyond the top five rounds of the NFL draft.
Daniel Helm (TE, Duke) — Helm started his career at Tennessee in 2014, and slowly but surely became a relevant weapon for the Duke Offense. Helm never crested 300 receiving yards (most was 271 in 2018), and didn’t display much as a receiving threat that will entice NFL decision makers. Helm isn’t a special athlete based on film, and will likely lag behind in athletic testing at the combine. Helm isn’t likely to be drafted, and is very unlikely to be a fantasy asset.
