Who throws big innings? Does anyone any more? Ray Flowers will break down the declining numbers posted in the innings pitched category for starting pitchers. He will then discuss those hurlers that saw a large jump in their workload in 2018 by taking a look at innings pitched and pitches thrown. Lest you forget the playoffs, he’ll also toss those numbers into the mix.
BIG INNINGS ARE VANISHING
Back in the day, there were three men rotations. Then it was four. Now, five is the standard though teams continually use the six-man rotation here and there. Hell, the Rays plan to use three this season with two “bullpen days” each time through the rotation. Some numbers. Here is a chart that lists the number of hurlers who reached a number of innings pitched milestones in each campaign.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
175 IP |
200 IP |
250 IP |
|
1957 |
46 |
34 |
8 |
|
1967 |
63 |
45 |
17* |
|
1977 |
74 |
60 |
15 |
|
1987 |
68 |
47 |
13 |
|
1997 |
75 |
43 |
5 |
|
2007 |
69 |
38 |
0 |
|
2017 |
42 |
15 |
0 |
|
2018 |
38 |
13 |
0 |
The truth is that the game has drastically changed on the hill. Since 1997 there have been only 20 seasons of 250-innings pitched. There were almost that many in just the 1967 campaign. The last time a hurler threw 250 big-league innings was Justin Verlander in 2011. Big inning seasons rarely occur anymore.*Jim Bunning threw 302 innings and six men threw at least 282 innings.
As you can tell, things got even worse in 2018, in terms of looking at big innings from pitchers. Those days of 200+ innings are basically a thing of the past. One thing to remember is that, with the lack of high-end innings pitched numbers, drafting arms with innings concerns aren’t as concerning as they were in the past. Think of it. If the elites are now throwing 180 innings instead of 200, saying that you’re rostering a guy who has an outlook of 150-160 innings doesn’t put you that far off the mark.
WHERE ARE THE INNINGS FOUND?
Let’s just get right to it.
How many arms have thrown 180-innings the last two years? Fifteen
How many arms have thrown 180-innings the last three years? Six
(Kluber, Lester, Porcello, Roark, Verlander and Scherzer)
How many arms have thrown 180-innings the last four years? Three
Corey Kluber, Jon Lester & Max Scherzer
That’s it, and the list is much smaller than anyone would think.
THE VERDUCCI EFFECT
A few years back. Tom Verducci decided to start pushing/publishing a column each year that discussed young pitchers and increased workload. There were two data points that needed to meet in order for a player to “qualify” for inclusion in the study.
Pitcher 25 years or younger.
An increase of 30-innings from the previous season.
If you met both of those criteria you were “at risk” according to Tom. Makes sense, young arms with increasing workloads being at risk for injury. The results over the years have certainly been mixed with no clear-cut support that Verducci’s position is any more accurate than a simply intelligent read of the situation. One has to take into account genetics, mechanics, pitches deployed, pitch counts etc. Its good to know about innings pitched increases, I think we would all agree to that, but the idea that there is some red line that if crossed means certain doom, I’m out on that.
INNINGS PITCHED INCREASE: 2017 TO 2018
The innings pitched marks located below include both minor and major league frames.
Age is the player’s b-day on April 1st, 2019.
It’s important to note the ages on the arms here. Only two men are over 30, which isn’t surprising because its usually young arms that see innings pitched increases.
Anyone in green is pretty much in an area of increase in 2018 that shouldn’t cause anyone to be concerned.
The blue starts to get into the area where we start to show some concern.
Those arms in yellow are getting into the area that we need to make sure we investigate carefully what is going on. All of these names bear some scrutiny, with the largest concerns being with Jesus Luzardo and Walker Buehler. Luzardo blew through the minors and saw a rather significant innings pitched increase at a rather young age. As much as we love the stuff, it’s fair to wonder if the Athletics are planning to extend him another 50+ innings this season to get him over 160. We all expect the star of Buehler to continue to shine, but note that last season was the first time he threw 100-innings, and he blew past that number in a substantial way.
All the men in red should have a red flag a waving. You can talk about injuries all you want, but anytime a guy adds 100-innings to his previous seasons workload its simply prudent to show at least some level of concern for the following campaign.
PITCH COUNT INCREASE: 2017 TO 2018
It’s not just important to know the innings workload, but it’s also important to know the pitch count increase in 2018. Some of these men have some concern, others less, while others actually appeared to save some bullets in 2018.
*Minimum 2,000 pitches both years at the major league level.
Some of the increase can be explained by coming back from injury (Shields, Keuchel).
Some by an increase in work for a youngster (Clevinger).
So, realize that the color coatings tiers just speak to the raw numbers of pitches thrown within giving any thought to the reason for the increase. Therefore, it’s just a starting point for your consideration as you break down hurlers for the coming season.
DON’T FORGET THE PLAYOFFS
Here are the eight men who threw at least 15-innnings in the 2018 postseason.
Clayton Kershaw (Playoff IP 30.0 and total 191.1 IP) – Wait, I thought Kershaw couldn’t throw innings anymore?
David Price (Playoff IP 26.0 and total 202 IP) – I’m truly shocked that he crested 200-innings last season.
Walker Buehler (Playoff IP 23.2 and total 177 IP – includes minors) – About the only kink in his profile at the moment is workload. Buehler threw five innings in 2016, 98 in 2017 and then 177 last season. That’s a massive innings pitched increase for a young hurler.
Nathan Eovaldi (Playoff IP 22.1 and total 133.1 IP) – Has the heat, but health always a concern.
Hyun-Jin Ryu (Playoff IP 19.0 and total 101.1 IP) – Pitched like a superstar last year but he’s thrown a total of 213.2 regular season innings in three years.
Justin Verlander (Playoff IP 17.1 and total 231.1 IP) – Just keeps cranking innings out like they ain’t no thang. At some point, it has to matter though, right?
Rich Hill (Playoff IP 16.2 and total 149 IP) – He almost made it to 150-innings. There was almost a parade on the planet Mars to celebrate.
Rich Porcello (Playoff IP 15.1 and total 206.2 IP) – Can bank on 180+ innings every year.
Chris Sale (Playoff IP 15.1 and total 173.1 IP) – Was last year a blip or the start of an impending breakdown?
