Ray Flowers and Vlad Sedler take counter positions on a single player, one for, one against. Which one of our experts do you agree with? Does either strike a knockout blow? Is there a TKO? Is there a need for another round? Two or our best analysts give their thoughts on a player for the upcoming season allowing you to be the judge as to which side makes the stronger argument, for or against the player.
Jake Lamb
By Vlad Sedler
There is no doubt that we’re taking on a bit of a risk with Lamb if he ADP continues to climb. A February ADP of 265 through nearly 40 paid NFBC drafts, I’ve seen Lamb creep up into the top-200 in a few of those over the second week of this month. The main issue with Lamb is that he is the quintessential platoon guy with the fact that he has never shown the ability to hit left-handed pitching in his career. The best word to describe his approach against southpaws is ‘putrid’ as he’s produced a .260 wOBA and .160 AVG against them over his career (356 AB). Compare that to a .354 wOBA and .269 BA against righties. His power against lefties is virtually non-existent (.132 ISO vs LHP, .219 vs RHP), but over the last few years, he usually finds himself on the bench when a lefty is on the mound. Lamb’s 2018 season was derailed by injury. He played in only 56 games, hit just six homers and batted a depressing .222. Hence the discount as folks forget about the man who averaged 29.5 HR, 97 RBI, 84 R and six SB over his previous two seasons. Granted, the humidor at Chase Field clearly affected the pop and power of hitters there. But Lamb just turned 28, and if fully healthy, can easily return to his 25-HR ways as a middle-of-the-order bat against right-handed pitching. That therein is the rub with a guy like Lamb. He is a less desirable mid-round draft pick in traditional leagues, but a very fine and advantageous selection in NFBC where we can take advantage of lineup changes to our starting hitters twice a week. That means he is a no-brainer play when he has a series in Coors Field or Miller Park and has three opposing starting righties on the mound. Lamb is someone we use platoon splits to our advantage with this year in this format.
By Ray Flowers
Vlad is taking a pretty nuanced approach with Lamb here. I will agree with him. If you are in a format where you are able to massage your lineup, likely a daily lineup change league, you can look to add Lamb if the cost isn’t too high. However, if you’re in a league that sets your lineup once a week, or in a league that is shallow, there’s just no reason to look Lamb’s way as anything other than a late reserve round addition. Here’s what I wrote about Lamb last year, and many thought I was crazy. “One thing is for sure. If Lamb is facing a lefty, on the road, in the second half of the season, you’re a flipping moron if you’re starting him. He won’t improve on last season, he really didn’t show any growth last season anyway, so be cautious with the love you show the third sacker.” My opinion hasn’t changed in the least. Vlad spoke to Lamb’s hideous work against lefties, and his career second half OPS is .682. He’s coming off a totally lost season due to that shoulder that eventually required surgery. So, Lamb went out last year and was awful, after I said he would be awful, though he was even more awful that even I expected. That’s just not promising. Vlad mentioned Jake’s speed, and there might be a wee bit there, but also note that he has been successful of seven of 13 attempts the last two seasons and that is almost as terrible as his work against lefties with the bat in his hands. I see no reason to look his way if his ADP is pushing him into the top-200 overall. If you can get Lamb cheap, or want to put together a team of last year’s bums that’s fine, but you need to understand with Lamb that he should be on the bench against every single lefty pitcher the D’backs face this season, and the odds of him ripping off a 30-100 season in 2019 are about the same as me buying a farm to raise pigs, though honestly, I might like to do that someday.
