Ray Flowers and Vlad Sedler take counter positions on a single player, one for, one against. Which one of our experts do you agree with? Does either strike a knockout blow? Is there a TKO? Is there a need for another round? Two or our best analysts give their thoughts on a player for the upcoming season allowing you to be the judge as to which side makes the stronger argument, for or against the player.
Billy Hamilton
By Ray Flowers
Billy Hamilton cannot hit. I know it. In fact, I seemed like the only person in the fantasy universe who was stating that back when Hamilton broke into the bigs (like literally). Hamilton has hit .245 in his career, including .236 last season, and he has flat out proven that he cannot hit. Worse than being a batting average drain is the fact that he doesn’t walk enough, a 6.9 percent rate for his career, leaving him with a sub .300 on-base percentage in his career (.298). He also doesn’t drive the ball, his .333 SLG and .088 ISO are hideous and show that he has less oomph that I would if I was on the field. As I said six years ago, the guy cannot hit. Worse yet, last season he had a mere 1.08 GB/FB ratio. Billy, hit the ball on the damn ground and run (career 43.1 percent ground ball rate). Hell Billy, how do you not know how to bunt? So why the hell am I writing about Hamilton in a positive light? As of this writing, Hamilton is outside the top-40 outfielders being taken in the NFBC. Even though he can’t hit, his wheels make him an option to finish inside the top-40 at outfielder with ease (he was a $23 of better dollar performer each year from 2014-17, and even last year he earned a respectable $17). You have to construct your team around his deficiencies, and I’m sure Vlad will point out that he doesn’t like doing that, and he’s not wrong. Still, Hamilton has stolen at least 55 bases in 4-of-5 seasons, is fast as ever, and is now with a team in Kansas City that appears intent on recreating their formerly dynamic teams of the 70’s and 80’s that ran a low. With his strong defensive game, Hamilton figures to play daily, and with no players in baseball hitting 50-steals last season, his speed quotient should play up in his new home allowing him to easily surpass his draft day cost in a 5×5 setup.
By Vlad Sedler
Yes, it’s true. Stolen bases are a rare commodity nowadays. There are very few true rabbits in our game today, not to mention someone of Hamilton’s ilk who can steal 50 with ease despite still not knowing how to actually hit. On the bright side, Hamilton’s price has dropped considerably from the past few seasons. He finds himself outside of the top-100 overall for the first time since his rookie year, and also on a new team that may very well set a season-best mark for swipes. Hamilton figures to play a part in that, but this will likely come from the bottom of the lineup. This, in turn, affects the only other category he came even close to league average in – runs. Outside of Adalberto Mondesi Jr., completely falling off a cliff and being demoted, there really isn’t much opportunity for Hamilton to find his way to leading off for this team as a guy with a career on-base percentage under .300 (.298 through his first five full seasons). He is the epitome of one-trick pony, offering nothing but stolen bases as his contribution. But we already know that. Ray is right – I am going to bring up roster construction. I want to have enough projected stolen bases through my first 10 or so picks where I won’t be forced to desperately draft someone like Hamilton who will hurt me in four-of-five categories. Not to mention, the Royals have enough options in the outfield to possibly even make Billy someone who doesn’t get regular playing time and is on the outside looking in. We know that Alex Gordon is locked in for left field and that the other two spots will be manned by some combo of Hamilton, Brian Goodwin, Jorge Bonifacio and Chris Owings (who can also play the infield, but those spots are locked for everyday guys, Mondesi and Whit Merrifield). This doesn’t even include recently traded-for youngster Brett Phillips who can be a much better asset to this team than Hamilton, and former first-round pick Bubba Sterling who may surprise us in the spring. Pure rabbits are scary for fantasy because any sort of ankle, knee or leg injury saps whatever value they have left. That’s the risk, and he may be worth it to you, but I that’s not the wisest way to construct our fantasy rosters this season.
