The Yankees’ Aaron Hicks just signed a 7-year, $70 million deal to remain a fixture in the outfield. Many folks seem outraged at that contract, something I don’t really understand, but regardless, the deal has helped to shine the light of the baseball world upon him. What type of fantasy contributor is Hicks likely to be in 2019?
29 years old
Bats/Throws: Both/Right
Height/Weight: 6’1”, 205 lbs
Position: Outfield
THE NUMBERS
| Level | Games | AVG | HR | RBI | Runs | SB | OPS | |
| 2013 | MLB | 81 | .192 | 8 | 27 | 37 | 9 | .597 |
| 2014 | MLB | 69 | .215 | 1 | 18 | 22 | 4 | .615 |
| 2015 | MLB | 97 | .256 | 11 | 33 | 48 | 13 | .721 |
| 2016 | MLB | 123 | .217 | 8 | 31 | 32 | 3 | .617 |
| 2017 | MLB | 88 | .266 | 15 | 52 | 54 | 10 | .847 |
| 2018 | MLB | 137 | .248 | 27 | 79 | 90 | 11 | .833 |
| Per | 162 | .236 | 19 | 635 | 77 | 14 | .724 |
| Baseball America | Baseball Prospectus | MLB.com | |
| 2009 | 39th | 39th | |
| 2010 | 19th | 26th | |
| 2011 | 45th | 51st | |
| 2012 | 72nd | ||
| 2013 | 72nd | 46th | 98th |
THE SKILLS
I’ve heard many folks bitching about the contract Hicks signed, and they usually say something like ‘he never plays’ or ‘he’s a career .236 hitter.’ I will speak more to the health portion below, but let me address the batting average point. As I said to someone on Twitter the other day, judging a player by his batting average is so 1983. We are much better than that in 2019, aren’t we?
According to Fangraphs, Hicks was 22nd in baseball last season with a 4.9 WAR, the same number as Jose Altuve and a tenth better than Trea Turner. Amongst players with 900 plate appearances the last two years his 8.2 WAR is 29th in baseball (out of 165 players). So please, let’s move on from the ‘Hicks sucks because his batting average is low.’
As for the fantasy angle, if you are in a league that uses batting average there is an obvious issue – his mark in that category isn’t very good. Still, many are exaggerating his weakness in the category. Yes, Hicks owns a .236 career average, but have you noticed that the last two seasons he’s hit .255 which is better than the league average? Let me restate. His average the last two years is better than the league average of .252. It should also be pointed out that his 21.6 percent line drive rate last season was a three year best while his 39.5 percent hard-hit rate was a six year best. Not much of a split concern either here as he’s hit .246 against lefties and .231 against righties in his career. Not suggesting there much in the way of improvement coming, but at the same time the situation is nowhere near as dire as some folks make it out to be.
Let’s talk his approach.
Hicks has been an impressive fella the last two seasons with some impressive numbers in the walk and strikeout columns. Here are his totals the last two seasons amongst the 165 players who have at least 900 plate appearances.
Hicks has a 15.0 percent walk rate, sixth best in baseball.
Hicks has an 18.9 percent K-rate, 90th out of 165 so easily in the lower half of the league in whiff rate.
Hicks has a 0.79 BB/K ratio, 13th best in baseball.
Hicks has a .368 OBP, the 23rd best mark in the game.
Hicks knows how to get on base, and if he hits leadoff (more below), his outlook for the runs scored column becomes monstrous. He’s obviously an even higher priority add in OBP leagues and points leagues, but that goes without saying, right?
Hicks hit a career best 27 homers last season thank in large part to his 19.0 HR/FB ratio. As noted in other spots in this writeup, Hicks really has been a different batter the last two years, and that was reflected in his 15.8 percent HR/FB ratio in ’17. He’s also upped his fly ball ratio to 39 percent the last two years. Note, finally, that if he had 480 at-bats in 2017, at the pace he hit homers that year, he would have ended the campaign with 24 homers, nearly identical to the 27 he hit last season. The truth is simple. Hicks is clearly a 20+ homer bat who will get to that level if he’s on the field.
Hicks brings some speed to the field as well. His only three seasons of 95 games played he’s stolen double-digit bases. That includes the last two seasons when he’s stolen 21 bases at a 75 percent clip. His speed score of 5.3 last year was well above the league average of 4.4. I don’t know if it’s wise to expect a significant increase in his steals total this season though. I mean, if you were hitting in from of Judge/Stanton, why would you be running?
PLAYING TIME
There is an extensive injury filled background with Hicks, and that alone is a reason to proceed with caution.
2014: missed three weeks with a concussion an shoulder issue
2015: hamstring and forearm issues cost him more than a month
2016: missed two weeks with a strained hamstring
2017: oblique issue cost him more than two months
2018: missed multiple weeks with a intercostal strain
Add that all up, and over the last three years as a Yankee he’s average 434 plate appearances and 116 games played. That’s a lot of missed time. Note that he has appeared in as many as 100 games only twice in his career, though at least he’s appeared in 123 or more games in 2-of-3 years with the Yankees.
Hicks is slated to play center field for the Yankees. That’s not news. The news revolves around the batting order it appears the Yankees will use this season. According to what we are hearing, Hicks is set to bat leadoff, ahead of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, when the Yanks face a righty. At the same time, with all the righties in the lineup, Hicks could also fill a run producing spot in the order at time. “It kind of depends on who’s in our lineup that day. Who the pitcher is, who the opponent is can all go into that. I would say Aaron Hicks is probably the frontrunner to be that guy who would lead off,” said manager Aaron Boone.
AVERAGE DRAFT POSITION DATA
As of this writing, here is the ADP data for Hicks (since February 1st).
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Overall |
Position Rank |
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120.8 |
36th |
The Fantasy Guru Rankings can be found by clicking on the link.
CONCLUSION
Three things could increase Hicks’ cost this preseason. (1) He plays for the Yankees. (2) He is likely to hit leadoff against righties. (3) He signed a big contract extension that raised his “Q” factor in the eyes of the general public. Therefore, whereas Hicks might have been a solid value prior to Valentine’s Day, his cost could inch upward to the point where his health concern risks make him a somewhat expensive option on draft day. That said, he currently profiles as an excellent option as a third outfielder, even if you’re in a 5×5 league, if you find your batting average support at other spots.
10-Team Mixed: The average is a bit of hinderance here, as is his likely low 20’s homer mark. He’s still a very usable piece, but not one to reach on.
12/15 Team Mixed: He’s a third outfield target. The approach is solid, ditto the power, and the ability to get on base, combined with his spot in the Yankees lineup, marks him as a man to acquire at the current cost.
AL-Only League: If you’re on the east coast the cost might be prohibitive, but if you’re out west, or drafting with some inexperienced folks, the cost will likely fall right into the ‘it’s prime buying’ time.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
