Wil Myers, yes that fella with the Padres, is a multi-time 20/20 performer. With all the striving for steals on draft day, it’s a little surprising how little love that Myers is receiving in some circles this year. I’m here to speak about his elite level wheels for the corner infield, his outlook with the bat in ’19, and the potential for him to outpace his moderate current cost according to the ADP data.
28 years old
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Height/Weight: 6’3”, 205 lbs.
Position: Third Base, Outfield
THE NUMBERS
| Level | Games | AVG | HR | RBI | Runs | SB | OPS | |
| 2013 | MLB | 88 | .293 | 3 | 53 | 50 | 5 | .831 |
| 2014 | MLB | 87 | .222 | 6 | 35 | 37 | 6 | .614 |
| 2015 | MLB | 60 | .253 | 8 | 29 | 40 | 5 | .763 |
| 2016 | MLB | 157 | .259 | 28 | 94 | 99 | 28 | .797 |
| 2017 | MLB | 155 | .243 | 30 | 74 | 80 | 20 | .792 |
| 2018 | MLB | 83 | .253 | 11 | 39 | 39 | 13 | .763 |
| Per | 162 | .253 | 25 | 83 | 89 | 20 | .768 |
| Baseball America | Baseball Prospectus | MLB.com | |
| 2011 | 10th | 13th | |
| 2012 | 28th | 19th | 19th |
| 2013 | 4th | 7th | 4th |
THE SKILLS
I’m gonna start at the end, in opposition where I usually start in Player Profiles, by talking the speed quotient with Myers.
Looking at stolen base potential, something everyone is searching for in 2019, we cannot overlook where Myers slates at third base (an even the outfield). Per 162 games in his career, Myers has averaged 20 steals. In his two full seasons Myers has stolen 20 bases. There was only one third baseman in baseball last season who stole 15 bases (Jose Ramirez). Note that only one first baseman stole 15 bases last season (Ian Desmond) so 15 steals is a pretty elite total for a corner infield option. That ability on the base paths shouldn’t be undervalued with Myers. Twenty steals at any spot are extremely useful, and even more so at the corner.
The last four seasons, Myers has hit between .243 and .259, and he’s a career .253 hitter. He’s not going to help your average category, but he really doesn’t hurt you at this point either as he’s right on the big-league average which was .248 in 2018. Is the number likely to change? Probably not.
Myers has a walk rate of 9.9 percent for his career, and the rate has been 10.1-10.8 percent in 3-of-4 years. There isn’t much reason to expect change.
Myers K-rate has gone up to 27 percent the last two years, but with a 25.2 percent career mark he’s basically been who he always has been. His BB/K has gone down three straight years, far from ideal, but 0.49 to 0.32 isn’t crashing and burning. Still, the last four seasons his OBP has been between .318 and .336, again, the paragon of consistency.
Myers has posted a BABIP of .311 for his career. Last year was a five year best at .327 putting him between .302 and .327 the last four seasons.
Let’s talk hard-hit ball rate, and there is some encouragement to be found there. Here are his hard-hit ball rate the last four seasons: 34.7, 33.6, 41.4 and 46.6 percent. Yes, he had a career best number last season (which explains the BABIP increase). That hard-hit rate led directly to an unsustainable, but massive, line drive rate of 27.5 percent. The mark is 20.4 for his career and had never been over 21.4 percent prior to last season, so we know there is some regression coming here.
Somewhat concerning is the drop in his fly ball rate. Still, there are two main points to fall back on. (1) His 28.9 percent mark last season was a career worst. Given that he was beat up physically for most of the year, it’s not surprising to see that he struggled to drive the ball deep (not to mention that he hit the ball hard and whacked a lot of line drives). (2) He had a career best mark of 42.9 in the fly ball column in 2017. Add together his last two seasons and you get a number of 37.9, which just so happens to be pretty close to the 35.8 percent mark he owns for his career, doesn’t it? I’m not worried about the dip last year, at least not at the moment.
Let’s talk power.
Myers averaged 29 homers in 2016-17.
In those two years he posted Isolated Power marks of .202 and .220.
The last three years, Myers has posted HR/FB ratios between 17.5 and 18.7 percent. Again, some pretty remarkable consistency.
It’s possible, though far from certain, that he could see a slight increase in his homer pace in 2019. Last season he pulled 50.2 percent of his batted balls (well above his 43.8 percent career rate), and as noted earlier, his fly ball rate was down. If he combines last years pull rate, with his 2017 fly ball rate, then you have a 30-homer bat.
Splits, what splits? You will have to do an awful lot of digging to find a player with less split danger than Myers. The numbers are pretty remarkable really.
vs. Lefties: .247/.345/.421 with a .766 OPS and .332 wOBA
vs. Righties: .256/.322/.446 with a .768 OPS and .330 wOBA
At Home: .256/.336/.428 with a .765 OPS and .331 wOBA
On Road: .251/.321/.450 with a .771 OPS and .330 wOBA
That consistency is bordering on flat out asinine. It’s remarkable really that a guy can be, no matter where the game is being played or who he is facing that day, the same guy. Always the same. Flat out amazing.
PLAYING TIME
There is no way around the fact that Myers has certainly missed his fair share of games.
Myers missed roughly 80 days with a wrist issue in 2014.
In 2015 he missed more than 100 days with a reoccurrence of the wrist issue (bone spurs).
In 2016-17 he was a rock, averaging 156 games a season. However, he backslid to half a seasons work in ’18 as he missed more than 80 days with a nerve issue in his elbow, an oblique issue and an issue with his foot. Reports suggest he is fully healthy as of this writing.
Myers is slated to play every day for the Padres. With the addition of Manny Machado, actually the decision was made before Machado was brought to town, Myers will play the outfield (they have Eric Hosmer locked into first base). Myers will retain his third base value this season in virtually every league, having appeared at third base 36 times last season in addition to his 42 outings in the outfield. Where will Myers hit in the order? If Manny Machado hits second, it would appear likely that Eric Hosmer will hit third with Myers fourth (that would give the Padres a balanced righty/lefty/righty mix).
All that said, the Padres have arguably the deepest outfield in baseball at the moment: Myers along with Hunter Renfroe, Manuel Margot, Franmil Reyes, Franchy Cordero and Travis Jankowski. That depth is great to have if Myers is hurt yet again, but it also will be impossible to get everyone work. Might the Padres consider employing a highly split driven outfield? The good news for Myers is that he has no platoon issues (mentioned above). With his salary (just $5.5 million this year but $22.5 million each year from 2020-2022), and success in the recent past, you have to think as long as he’s healthy he’s playing 145 games for the Padres in 2019 (here’s an audio clip of me talking about the OF).
AVERAGE DRAFT POSITION DATA
As of this writing, here is the ADP data for Myers (since February 1st).
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Overall |
Position Rank |
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109.1 |
14th at 3B |
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109.1 |
31st at OF |
The Fantasy Guru Rankings can be found by clicking on the link.
CONCLUSION
Myers has dealt with injury, that cannot be ignored, but are we taking things a bit too far here? Even when hurt last season, Myers was still on a 20/20 pace, and as we’ve established, that HR/SB skillset is very tough to find at the corner infield spot. As also laid out, Myers might have shortcomings, OK he does, but he also owns a trait that precious few in baseball do – he’s exceedingly consistent no matter the scenario. Given the current cost for Myers, you should be all in on Myers.
10-Team Mixed: He’s a starter at third base in this format, despite what his ADP says.
12/15 Team Mixed: Power, speed and dual position eligibility seem to make Myers a shining light of potential fantasy production. A league getting deeper player pool penetration also lessons the worry with the likely league average batting average.
NL-Only League: There is a bit of inherent risk with the ever-present injuries, but even so, his current cost seems to be at a point where you can still invest, especially with his dual position eligibility.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
