The number two qualifier in the 2018 AL ROY voting, Miguel Andujar had one heck of a season for the Bronx Bombers. He showed power and combined it with batting average, something that seems in short supply these days as it’s either one or the other for most folks. He also offered one of the worst fielding seasons by a third baseman in modern history, and rumors about a potential deal out of New York were floating everywhere this offseason. Will Andujar improve upon his impressive rookie season?
24 years old
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Height/Weight: 6’0”, 215 lbs.
Position: Nothing with a glove (third base)
THE NUMBERS
| Level | Games | AVG | HR | RBI | Runs | SB | OPS | |
| 2012 | RK | 50 | .232 | 1 | 19 | 21 | 1 | .587 |
| 2013 | RK | 34 | .323 | 4 | 25 | 18 | 4 | .864 |
| 2014 | A | 127 | .267 | 10 | 70 | 75 | 5 | .715 |
| 2015 | A+ | 130 | .243 | 8 | 57 | 54 | 12 | .651 |
| 2016 | A+, AA | 130 | .273 | 12 | 83 | 62 | 3 | .742 |
| 2017 | AA, AAA | 125 | .315 | 16 | 82 | 66 | 5 | .850 |
| 2017 | MLB | 5 | .571 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.482 |
| 2018 | MLB | 149 | .297 | 25 | 97 | 83 | 2 | .855 |
| Total | 154 | .300 | 26 | 97 | 83 | 3 | .863 |
| Baseball America | Baseball Prospectus | MLB.com | |
| 2018 | 59th | 65th |
THE SKILLS
Entering 2018, Andujar was a top-100 prospect. There was hope that he would find his power stroke, but after hitting 28 homers in 255 games over 2016-17 it was surprising how fast the power came in 2018. Let’s explore that component of his game.
Just to be clear, after hitting 28 homers in two seasons Andujar hit 27 homers last season. Another point. He had never hit 17 homers in a season before popping 27 last year with the Yankees.
Amongst all players with 400 plate appearances last season, there were 214 such men according to Statcast, his 15.3 launch angle was 143rd in baseball, obvious well into the second half of those in the survey, and not an impressive number for a guy wanting to be a 30-homer bat.
Amongst the 186 players with 300 batted ball events last season according to Statcast, his 389 foot average homer distance was 140th, a poor number
Amongst the 186 players with 300 batted ball events last season according to Statcast, his 89.2 mph exit velocity was 88th, or barely in the top half.
Is any of this making you feel good about Andujar repeating, let alone improving, his homer output in 2019?
In terms of his fly ball rate, Andujar had a 35.8 percent mark last season, with a point of the league average so he wasn’t just jacking balls into the air. Given his launch angle, it’s unwise to expect an increase on the 15.7 HR/FB ratio he posted last season. Given the distance if his average homer last season it’s also unwise to expect HR/FB growth.
There was also a significant gap in his performance last season at home and on the road.
Home: .572 SLG, .260 ISO, homer every 17.8 at-bats
Road: .483 SLG, .201 ISO, homer every 26.2 at-bats
Clearly, he enjoyed hitting in Yankee Stadium performing at near elite levels there. Hardly a slough on the road was he, but you should note that his production did dip on the road.
Adding everything up, it’s hard to envision homer growth this season. In fact, slight regression might even be a more likely outcome.
Let’s talk batting average. Two hits from batting .300 last season, Andujar is one of a mere seven men who went .295-25 last season. That’s a much smaller list than we are used to seeing with all the launch angle craze. The real question is can Miguel hold on to that average?
Andujar was roughly middle of the pack last year in exit velocity, and his 36.0 hard-hit rate was barely better than the league average (35.3 percent). Ditto his 20.2 percent line drive rate that was actually lower than the 21.5 percent mark of the league. Further, Andujar pulled 47.5 percent of his batted balls last season and hit just 23.3 percent of his balls to right field. The league average numbers were 40.3 percent and 25.1 percent. Those numbers aren’t damning in the least, but in general terms, using the whole field is a more effective way to produce base hits. None of that is overly exciting in terms of him sustaining a near .300 batting average.
Andujar makes impressive contact for a man with power as his K-rate last season was a mere 16 percent as he was punched out 97 times in 573 at-bats. There were 100 men who hit 20 homers last season and only 19 of them struck out less than 100 times (Maikel Franco went deep 22 times with the lowest K total of just 62).
However, he also never walks, and I mean never. Over the course of 606 plate appearances he walked 25 times. There were 72 who men who accrued 600 plate appearances last season. Of that group of 72, only one man had fewer walks (Adam Jones with 24 in 613). I detest this approach when it comes to constructing the ideal hitter. Consider all the data we’ve laid out above, its hard for me to build a strong case to suggest he’s hitting .295 again.
On the plus side for his batting average is the relative consistency of his game last season. He did hit .264 against lefties, but he also hit .281 on the road, .309 against righties, .312 at home and .319 in the second half. Still, I’m of the opinion that the average could fall .020 points and I wouldn’t be at all surprised though I would be surprised if he hit .300.
In terms of runs batted in, Andujar should be a sizeable producer if he’s in the lineup daily (more on that below). The Yankees will mash the baseball in a relentless manner, if everything comes together. However, the means for Andujar to cross home plate might be a bit compromised. As noted, his approach is to swing at everything and to never take a free pass. As such, his OBP is nearly directly tied to his batting average. If his average falls even a smidge, his OBP will likely dip to league average levels. He could still crest 80 runs again, but this aspect of his game also appears to be capped but his approach.
PLAYING TIME
There has been a lot of talk this offseason about Miguel Andujar and his defense which is, if we’re being polite, horrible. He’s a butcher out there. Amongst the 19 qualifiers at third base last season he was 19th in UZR, 19th in DRS, 19th in RZR and 19th in Fangraphs DEF. Let me be clear…
Andujar was the worst fielding third baseman in baseball in 2019.
There has been plenty of talk about him moving to first base (especially if they signed Manny Machado). There has also been a lot of smoke about moving him to another team in a deal for pitching. That’s only going to add to his value in 2019, if he picks up another spot, but also realize there is a change he isn’t with the Yankees at the end of the year, and there is always a chance that he loses at-bats late in games or if his bat is slow (he was removed 15 times last season for a defensive replacement). Let’s not forget, that the team also added D.J. LeMahieu this offseason, and they are working him out at third base in camp this season. He’s working diligently on his defensive side.
As for the batting order stuff… it appears that Miguel is likely to fill the fifth spot in the order behind a massive front four of Hicks-Judge-Stanton-Sanchez. With Judge-Stanton/Sanchez likely to clear 100 homers is all three remain healthy, there will be an awful lot of at-bats where Andujar will be at the dish without runners on base. There should still be plenty of pop behind Andujar to drive him in when he gets on base.
AVERAGE DRAFT POSITION DATA
As of this writing, here is the ADP data for Andujar (since February 1st).
|
|
Overall |
Position Rank |
|
77.9 |
10th |
The Fantasy Guru Rankings can be found by clicking on the link.
CONCLUSION
I get it. Andujar is young and he plays for the Yankees. At the same time, I view his ADP as wildly aggressive. As of this writing you could wait 20 picks and get Josh Donaldson, 30 for Justin Turner or Wil Myers (Player Profile) or 70 picks for Mike Moustakas. I’m just not getting the exuberance here. Andujar has no speed, is terrible defensively and is no better than a 50/50 proposition to repeat his batting average and homer totals. He’s an avoid for me at his current price.
10-Team Mixed: Given the cost, there’s no way I’m buying in a league this shallow.
12/15 Team Mixed: As you can tell by the overall tone of this piece, it’s not that I wouldn’t take Andujar on my team, I’m just far from certain that if you pay the current market value to attain his services that you will be pleased with the results.
AL-Only League: The power/average combo, even if dialed back a bit from last season, leaves him plenty of value here. Still, the defense could cost him at-bats, but there is a nice floor here given his overall skillset, lineup and home park.
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