As we enter the offseason, there’s a new format that’s emerged over the last couple of seasons that’s caught the attention of many. In fact, it’s the preferred way to play for a lot of fantasy football enthusiasts. Best Ball.
Between, Draft, Fanball (MFL10s) and a few other established sites, there’s plenty of variety and fun to be had. Lobbies are open, ADPs have been created, and values have emerged. The goal of this article is to identify players that are currently undervalued and will provide depth in the later rounds of best ball drafts.
After three weeks of identifying values, let’s shift gears and look at some players to avoid. While all players have redeeming qualities, there’s differing levels of upside and risk. There’s a long way to go before the 2019 season begins, so mitigating as much risk as possible is imperative.
OVERVALUED
JAMES CONNER (RB, PIT) (DRAFT ADP: 9.3)
When it comes down to it, James Conner has an uncomfortable market value. Enough happened in 2018, along with the general chaos of what the Steelers will do with the running back (RB) position this offseason to have SOME worries about what the future holds for Conner. Will he have a significant role in 2019? That’s something worth cautiously projecting. Will the Steelers continue to use Jaylen Samuels or draft a third down-type back? It doesn’t seem likely, but it’s possible. Those slight concerns are more than what players in Conner’s ADP range are dealing with, which makes limiting exposure, at least early in the best ball process, advisable.
In terms of Conner’s on-field play in 2018, there’s nothing to pick apart. While his late season injury damaged some of his early season efficiency, 973 rushing yards on 215 attempts (4.5 per attempt) and 12 rushing touchdowns in 13 games is special stuff. The Steelers offensive system will still be in place, and Conner will be a dominant presence when volume is available. Conner was also a third round draft pick in the NFL draft, so he was a reasonable investment for the Steelers. RBs from that draft round tend to sustain themselves over multiple seasons if they can prove their worth early on, so it would make sense that with one productive season under his belt, that continues. It’s all about expectations. 24 percent of third round RBs since 2000 have accumulated two seasons with 1,000 yards from scrimmage, and that’s certainly attainable for Conner.
The issue comes when evaluating ADP. Conner is currently being drafted next to Melvin Gordon, DeAndre Hopkins, Tyreek Hill, Le’Veon Bell (We’ll get to that in a moment), Davante Adams, Joe Mixon and David Johnson. All of those players (barring injury) have guaranteed FEATURED roles in their offense, and have significant samples of elite play at their positions. There are zero doubts about those roles, and beyond injury risk, they’re set it and forget it players.
Conner is a talented player in a potentially great situation, and has a reasonably high floor projection for 2019. The best strategy for Conner currently would be to wait on getting exposure until after free agency and the draft, then shift into a reasonable exposure range if he survives those obstacles.
LE’VEON BELL (RB, FA) (DRAFT ADP: 11.5)
Speaking of players with risk, there probably isn’t a player that has more that than Le’Veon Bell. Bell is a 27 year old RB with two major injuries, a lot of mileage and has just sat out a full season. There’s a significant chance his new team and offensive system will be much less effective than where he was previously (Pittsburgh), and there’s no guarantee he’ll see the same type of volume he received previously. The reports that Bell ballooned up to 260 pounds during the 2018 season could be false, but they could also be true.
Having to ponder ONE of these situations is enough to limit exposure early in the offseason, never-mind all of them. Bell’s current market price is completely unreasonable, and would have to shift significantly (down) for it to be worth the risk. There’s absolutely no doubt Bell is a talented player, but his volume with Pittsburgh (three seasons with 330 or more touches) was one of his most appealing features. As mentioned above with Conner, there’s high floor, featured options with solidified roles and better health situations being drafted around Bell’s current ADP. It’s a long offseason, and if Bell signs with a great team that will optimize his skills, there will always be a chance to get exposure later in the offseason. For now, this proposition doesn’t make sense.
DOUG BALDWIN (WR, SEA) (DRAFT ADP: 65.8)
Doug Baldwin has already had a special career, and has exceeded expectations every step of the way. From a committee role at Stanford, to going undrafted, to working his way up to the Seahawks Depth chart, Baldwin has worked incredibly hard at his craft and become an incredible outlier. Since 2000, Baldwin trails only Wes Welker and Nate Washington (he was better than you probably think) in receiving yards by undrafted players. In that same span, Baldwin is tied with Miles Austin for the most 1,000 or more receiving yard seasons (2) for undrafted players, trailing only the aforementioned Welker. All this is to say, Baldwin has ALREADY had a great career, and if he starts to statistically fade in 2019, his career has been a success.
The facts are that Baldwin is entering his age 31 season, coming off an injury-filled age 30 season and is now on a team that is insistent on being the most run-heavy in the NFL. Those developments along with the fourth year breakout of Tyler Lockett should be shifting fantasy expectations down considerably. In the current round range in which Baldwin is going, there’s younger players who’ve shown solid upside surrounding him. Players like Mike Williams, Tyler Boyd, Rashaad Penny, TYLER LOCKETT and David Njoku all bring appealing upside to the table.
If Baldwin can regain his health, with no slips, there’s a chance he can retain value at current price, but it’s highly, highly unlikely for undrafted players to sustain themselves after the four year fantasy trend he’s put together.
CHRIS GODWIN (WR, TB) (DRAFT ADP: 68.9)
Godwin has been a trendy upside pick for a few seasons now, and his play on the field has done nothing to redirect that appeal. Godwin made significant strides from a role point of view in 2018, seeing 40 more targets, 317 more receiving yards and six more touchdowns than his rookie season. Godwin finished with 187.2 (PPR) fantasy points in 2018, good for WR25. Godwin has the requisite athleticism (95th percentile SPARQ-x score), draft round (third) and and opportunity through three seasons to be considered a prime breakout candidate.
So why is he overvalued? Good question, and there was time spent pondering if he deserves this designation. Here’s the argument.
Tampa Bay, in 2018, passed for 5,358 passing yards, 36 touchdowns and and averaged an 8.6 yards per attempt. Despite absolute chaos at the quarterback position, they were one of the most prolific passing yardage teams in NFL history. Since the merger, the 2018 Buccaneers passed for the second most single season passing yards in NFL history, trailing only the 2013 Denver Broncos. They were giving out receiving yards like the big banks were giving mortgages in the 90s. In their previous three seasons, Tampa Bay threw for 4,607 (2017), 4,165 (2016) and 4042 (2015) yards, which all are more reasonable than what happened in 2018. Even if the Buccaneers regress to their 2017 mark (4,607), they lose 751 off (14 percent) of their 2018 total. That type of (likely) regression will have a negative fantasy impact on everyone in the offense, not just Godwin.
Godwin is currently playing with skill position players that were bigger investments than him. Mike Evans would be the obvious high-pedigree target hog, but O.J. Howard is the real potential issue for Godwin. Before losing his 2018 season with an ankle injury, the 19th overall pick in the 2017 NFL draft was careening towards a year two breakout. In just ten games, Howard amassed 565 receiving yards (56.5 yards per game) and five touchdowns. In weeks 1-11, Howard was fifth among tight ends in receiving yards, and TE6 in (PPR) fantasy scoring. In those first 11 weeks, Godwin had 67 targets, 575 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns. While those numbers weren’t bad, it’s no coincidence his two best games of the season came after Howard went on injured reserve (five receptions for 101 yards and touchdown against Carolina, six receptions for 114 yards and two touchdowns against Atlanta).
With less yardage to go around in 2018, and with Howard potential ascension to featured weapon status, this could limit Godwin more than currently perceived. Unlike some of the other players listed as overvalued so far, Godwin isn’t a player to purely AVOID. As mentioned above, he has plenty of redeeming qualities. But considering the range Godwin’s ADP is, and quality of players surrounding him, limiting exposure to a potential third option in an offense is advisable.
