I wasn’t planning on writing this article this season. I thought that, after years of explaining why Overall Rankings lists are a waste of time, that people would stop asking for it. I was wrong. Since it’s still a question that I regularly receive, ‘Ray, where I can see the rankings but where is the overall rankings list?’ I guess I have to trudge through the argument that I’ve made for years – they are misleading at best, and in a worst-case scenario they are useless.
THE BACKGROUND
Back in 1994, when fantasy sports was just taking off, many of the big-name sites had yet to fully buy in to fantasy, and data wasn’t that easy to find. There certainly wasn’t a plethora of analysts breaking down players who also had any inkling as to how to play fantasy baseball. You might get lucky and find a source that broke players down by position, but many spots simply put out a top-250 list with all the players ranked (the list might have been 300, 350, 400, whatever the number was is irrelevant here). You would therefore head to your draft with your top-250 list, cross players off, and think you had won the draft because you rostered 28 players all in the top-250. We were trained to think that such lists are important. Let me tell you, that they aren’t.
WHAT YOU WON’T GET
1 – There is no top-250, top-350 or top-whatever list at Fantasy Guru.
2 – There will be no top-whatever list at Fantasy Guru.
3 – If you want a top-whatever list, just download an ADP list (to see how to utilize that properly make sure to check out How to Use ADP Properly).
4 – If you’re using a top-whatever list you are doing it wrong.
Here are the main reasons why you shouldn’t be using a top-whatever list.
CONTEXT AND WHY IT’S THE KEY
Context matters.
How have you constructed your roster? Do you have a lot of power arms but are a bit weak on power bats? Did you spend your first five picks on hitters and now you need an arm? Are your first four picks all infielders leaving you thin in the outfield? Speaking of outfielders, does your league start three, four or five? Have you gotten any speed yet? Have you dipped your toe into the closer market yet? All of those questions, and others like it, need to be answered every time its your turn to make a selection. Until you have the actual, on-hand results, there is no way in absentia that you can answer the question, which is precisely why using a top-whatever list is useless.
A concrete example may suffice as a better way to explain what I mean here, so let’s do just that.
Let’s come at this as if you need a starting pitcher.
On your list, the best SP left is Sean Newcomb. Yes, there are a few other names that intrigue you, but considering all relevant factors, it’s clear in your eyes that Newcomb is obviously the best answer to the question of who is the best pitcher left, and you really feel like you gotta get that last starting pitcher arm you trust because your starting staff feels thin. Looking at corner infield, you still perceive that spot to be a slight weakness, nothing bad at all though, but unexpectedly when your pick comes up Newcomb, Carlos Santana and Miguel Sano are also available. Looking at your top-whatever list, you note that Santana/Sano are both listed ahead of Newcomb, so the list tells you to take one of the corner infielders, as the list dictates you take the “better” player (i.e. the player ranked higher). However, is that what is right for your team? The answer could easily be no, and in fact, in this scenario, the better pick for your squad is Newcomb. Realize what this means. What this situation points out is taking the “better” player may not be the best move for your team.
This is the problem with the overall lists – they cannot possible speak to the context of how your draft is progressing/evolving.
All an overall list can do is to tell you who has the perceived highest value overall. Note that all players don’t produce their value on the same continuum either. Starting pitchers produce strikeouts. Relievers produce saves. Some players hit homers. Others steal bases. The need of your team should outpace the overall value the player is predicted to produce in many instances.
Here is another way to look at the issue.
Let’s say you have five players with a legitimate shot at 30 homers, but you look over your roster and you see about 40 steal total steals as a likely outcome of your roster. Clearly you have a speed need. It’s your turn to draft. The top-whatever list says that Kevin Kiermaier is player 315 and Peter Alonso is player 265. If you’re a slave to the top-whatever list, then you should draft Alonso who is 50 spots ahead of KK. However, what does your team need? The better selection for your team is KK, not PA, but will you be swayed by the top-whatever list to the point that you make the “right” pick which is, in reality, the wrong pick for your team? At many spots in a draft, the context of your draft pick matters more than the actual ranking of a player (this is especially true the later in the draft that you get).
I know many of you reading this are thinking to yourself – duh, I would never take Alonso just cause he is ranked higher. My response is, and I will be frank with you all, that I’ve made this mistake in the past myself. Therefore, I have to think you have or could as well. You say you would never do it, but with the bullets flying on draft day, you will be tempted to make the wrong call if you’re staring at the sheet, trust me.
So, in the end there is no top-whatever list at Fantasy Guru. I don’t want to tempt you to make a wrong decision on draft day, and more directly, I just don’t believe that it’s the right way to even think about putting together your roster in 2019. If you want to do it right, make sure you visit our Rankings Article page which talked about Tiering, ADP and Player Projections.
