In this series I’ll be taking an in-depth look at pitchers I’m targeting in 2019 drafts. Some will be studs who I think are still undervalued, others will be pitchers who have finished mid-pack but are breakout candidates. Some will be genuine sleepers you can get in the last few rounds of your drafts. Last week I wrote about German Marquez, today I’ll write about my #1 starting pitcher for 2019: Trevor Bauer.
Trevor Bauer (NFBC SP Rank: 9, DC Rank: 1)
Trevor Bauer is by no means flying under the radar after an incredible 2018, where he posted a 2.21 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 30.8% strikeout percentage, and went 12-6 for the Cleveland Indians across 175 innings. He’s being drafted as the 9th starting pitcher off the board, typically going in the 3rd or 4th round of 12-team drafts. It was truly a breakout season for Bauer in his age-27 season, as his previous best ERA was 4.18 and his metrics improved dramatically across the board.
For those of you unfamiliar with the story of Trevor Bauer, being aware of his history helps explain his breakout in 2018. Bauer is perhaps the biggest “baseball nerd” of any pitcher in baseball (at the very least he’s the most outspoken about it). Bauer trains at Driveline Baseball, an up and coming baseball technology company that uses high speed cameras and all sorts of high-tech devices to measure and optimize different aspects of pitching such as spin rate, velocity, pitch tunneling, and a lot more I’m sure we don’t even know about. The result, for Bauer, of being a baseball scientist is that he’s turned himself into a mediocre pitcher into a pitcher, who in my opinion, has the most complete arsenal of pitches of anyone the game has ever seen.
In 2018, Bauer was the only pitcher in MLB to use six different pitches a minimum of five percent of the time. Such a diverse arsenal of pitches is beneficial as it keeps the hitter guessing as to what is coming, and Bauer was able to throw all six pitches for strikes, and amazingly, all 6 had a positive P-Value (which simply rates the results of each pitches). Bauer featured a 4-seam fastball, 2-seam fastball, cutter, slider, curveball and changeup.
I’m sure I’ll get pushback in this article ranking Trevor Bauer ahead of Max Scherzer for 2019, and I get that. Scherzer has been an absolute beast for years, while Bauer has literally never been better than Scherzer for a season and outside of last year, ranked FAR below him. (Scherzer is my #3 pitcher for 2019, behind Bauer and Chris Sale). Like Bauer, Scherzer features a very diverse arsenal of pitches, using five of the same pitches Bauer uses (Scherzer does not throw a sinker). Let’s compare the velocities and movement of the 5 pitches they both use.
4-Seam Fastball
| Pitch | Velocity | Horizontal Movement | Vertical Movement | Spin Rate RPM |
| Bauer 4-seam | 95 | -4.6 | 9.4 | 2322 |
| Scherzer 4-seam | 94.7 | -5.99 | 7.86 | 2486 |
A quality 4-seam fastball generally relies on two characteristics: velocity and vertical movement. Horizontal movement is very much secondary to the success of this pitch. Bauer has a touch more velocity and a touch more vertical movement, while Scherzer has a higher spin rate but converts some of that into horizontal movement. Scherzer’s fastball has been more effective than Bauer’s by a good margin, so I’ll give Max the slight edge with this pitch, although the fact that Bauer has a sinker and Scherzer does not brings it closer to even in my book.
Cutter
| Pitch | Velocity | Horizontal Movement | Vertical Movement | Spin Rate RPM |
| Bauer Cutter | 87.2 | 3.2 | 0.57 | 2611 |
| Scherzer Cutter | 88.9 | 1.01 | 4 | 2426 |
On a cutter you velocity, horizontal movement, a low number on vertical movement (which means more downward movement) and of course a high spin rate matter. Scherzer has more velocity, but Bauer bests him horizontal movement, vertical movement and spin rate. We’ll call this one a draw.
Slider
| Pitch | Velocity | Horizontal Movement | Vertical Movement | Spin Rate RPM |
| Bauer Slider | 82.6 | 7.7 | -1.2 | 2666 |
| Scherzer Slider | 85.5 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 2386 |
Here we want velocity, horizontal movement, a low vertical movement number and a high spin rate. Once again Scherzer has the higher velocity, but Bauer smashes him in the other metrics and his slider actually had better numbers as the season progressed. Bauer clearly has the better slider.
Curveball
| Pitch | Velocity | Horizontal Movement | Vertical Movement | Spin Rate RPM |
| Bauer Curve | 79.6 | 4.9 | -11.2 | 2601 |
| Scherzer Curve | 78.7 | 4.6 | -4 | 2511 |
Bauer wins this one easily as well. Bauer’s curveball is thrown at a higher velocity, has slightly more horizontal movement compared to Scherzer’s, but the big difference is the vertical movement. Bauer has one of the very best “12 to 6” curveballs in MLB while Scherzer’s lacks vertical drop.
CHANGEUP
| Pitch | Velocity | Horizontal Movement | Vertical Movement | Spin Rate RPM |
| Bauer Change | 87.5 | -9 | 3.7 | 1852 |
| Scherzer Change | 84.3 | -8.5 | 0.5 | 1457 |
For a changeup to be effective, it needs to have a good separation from the fastball, which Scherzer easily has more compared to Bauer. You also want a negative number in horizontal movement as that means more arm-side run, and you want a low vertical movement number as that means it drops more in the zone as it approaches the batter. Spin rate doesn’t matter much here. Scherzer’s changeup has been much more effective than Bauer’s and is by far the better pitch to this point in their careers.
Combined Arsenals
Movement and velocity of pitches isn’t everything, of course. Control, command, pitch sequencing, pitch tunneling all play a big role in pitcher success. The thing is, Bauer has all that stuff (as of course, does Scherzer). Just comparing their arsenals, fastball seems like mostly a wash, as does the cutter. Bauer is well ahead of Scherzer with his slider and curveball, whereas Scherzer has the better changeup. All told it’s very close between the two. This isn’t meant to be a knock on Scherzer’s arsenal of pitches at all. He’s got incredible pitches, and is the consensus #1 pitcher in fantasy baseball for a reason. It’s simply meant to illustrate the incredible arsenal that Bauer possesses.
Changeup Development and 2019 projection
This is where I think Bauer can improve and ultimately pass Scherzer and everyone else to claim the mantle of “best pitcher on the planet” and number one fantasy asset for 2019. Bauer’s breakout came, mostly, on the development of his slider and curveball, which he “built” at the Driveline Lab (his words), dramatically increasing the spin rate and movements over the last couple of season. He’s also used that technology and science to increase his fastball velocity every season, and I’d expect it to have another improvement this year. But what is really exciting is what should be a new changeup, as that was Bauer’s stated goal this offseason. I expect to see more differentiation velocity wise from his fastball and changeup, more arm-side run, and definitely more vertical drop, which is the big change he needs to make. Bauer only threw this pitch five percent of the time in 2018, a number I expect to rise significantly. If Bauer truly has another legitimate weapon to his arsenal, he should pass Scherzer in terms of raw stuff and results.
Some people will note Bauer has never thrown more than 200-innings in a season, but rest assured he would have flown past that number last season (and perhaps won the Cy Young award) had he not been hit in the leg by a comebacker. The truth is, outside of that bad luck, Bauer has been a picture of his health. I believe he’s got the ability to lead the league in innings pitched, and he’s my AL Cy Young pick for 2019 and should prove to be an absolute bargain this year as he provides first round value at a third or fourth round cost. Go get him!
