After two years of horrid work in the majors, Adalberto Mondesi exploded on the fantasy scene in 2018 offering 75 games of elite level production. So stupendous was his run, giving him 150 games at those levels would have led to a season of .276-28-74-94-64, and that he was vaulted up draft boards in 2019 as a player pretty much always taken in the top-50 overall. Just what is in store for the middle infielder in 2019 – is he a can’t miss kid or is the price simply too high?
23 years old
Bats/Throws: Both/Right
Height/Weight: 6’1”, 190 lbs.
Position: Shortstop
THE NUMBERS
| Year | Level | Games | AVG | HR | RBI | Runs | SB | OPS |
| 2012 | RK | 50 | .290 | 3 | 30 | 35 | 11 | .733 |
| 2013 | A | 125 | .261 | 7 | 47 | 61 | 24 | .672 |
| 2014 | A+ | 110 | .211 | 8 | 33 | 54 | 17 | .610 |
| 2015 | AA | 81 | .243 | 6 | 33 | 36 | 19 | .351 |
| 2016 | A+, AA, AAA | 52 | .268 | 7 | 30 | 34 | 24 | .790 |
| 2017 | AAA | 85 | .305 | 13 | 52 | 52 | 21 | .879 |
| 2018 | AAA | 29 | .250 | 5 | 21 | 19 | 10 | .786 |
| 2016 | MLB | 47 | .231 | 2 | 13 | 16 | 9 | .512 |
| 2017 | MLB | 25 | .214 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | .460 |
| 2018 | MLB | 75 | .276 | 14 | 37 | 47 | 32 | .804 |
| Per | 162 | .238 | 19 | 58 | 74 | 51 | .679 |
| Year | Baseball America | Baseball Prospectus | MLB.com |
| 2013 | 58th | ||
| 2014 | 47th | 29th | 38th |
| 2015 | 28th | 27th | 40th |
| 2016 | 29th | 16th | 37th |
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THE SKILLS
Let me start with the above.
It’s completely unscientific, though admittedly fun, to just take a look at 75 games and then double it and say ‘well that’s what he would have done if he had played 150 games.’ Admittedly we all do it, but hopefully in 2019 we’re a bit more sophisticated in our line of thought.
Even if we do the old double-up thing, let’s revisit that projection again of .276-28-74-94-64. Those are amazing numbers. Those are blow your socks off numbers. Those are titans of the game kinda numbers. Those five numbers, in one single season, have happened… wait for it… never. Since the game was invented. Trout has never done it. Mays never did. Henderson never did it. Bonds never did. IT HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE (three times – Joe Morgan in 1973 and 1976 and Eric Davis in 1986 – reached close numbers of .275-25-70-90-60). So, lets agree to move on from that line of thought with Mondesi, shall we?
OK, let’s take a look at some projections for what folks expect from him in 2019.
| SITE | AVG | HR | RBI | RUNS | SB |
|
THE BAT |
.241 |
21 |
63 |
81 |
35 |
|
STEAMER |
.253 |
21 |
71 |
73 |
41 |
|
FANS |
.261 |
21 |
73 |
68 |
48 |
|
FORECASTER |
.257 |
16 |
64 |
77 |
38 |
|
FANTASY GUIDE |
.237 |
22 |
69 |
87 |
54 |
|
PECOTA |
.240 |
18 |
53 |
84 |
43 |
|
AVERAGE |
.248 |
20 |
66 |
78 |
43 |
*The first three are from Fangraphs. Forecaster (Baseball Forecaster from Baseball HQ), Fantasy Guide (The 2019 Fantasy Baseball Guide), Prospectus (Baseball Prospectus), AVERAGE (the average of the six projections).
Some notes.
Only one model projects a .260 batting average. The league hit .248 last season, and three models project Adalberto lower than that.
All the models are within six homers.
Two models are over 70, one under 55 in terms of RBI.
One model is over 85 runs, one below 70 runs.
Only one model projects 50 steals while two projects less than 40.
All told, the average is obviously .248-20-66-78-43.
I bet when you read those numbers you thought – that’s reasonable. Well…
The number of players who hit all five of those marks last season was… zero.
In 2017 no one reached all five numbers.
In 2016 no one reached all five numbers.
In 2015 no one reached all five numbers.
In 2014 no one reached all five numbers.
In 2013 no one reached all five numbers.
The last time a player reached all five numbers was 2012 (Mike Trout).
Think about all of that for a moment. The “reasonable” average from above, the numbers that you thought were pretty legit when you first read them, have been reached once in seven years.
So, I ask you, is it really legitimate to expect Mondesi to do something in 2019 that no one in baseball has gone the last six years? I know that’s what the projections are offering you as the likely outcome, but pulling back and using your noggin’ a bit you have to be worried that the projections have him accomplishing feats no one in baseball has the last six years, right?
Let’s look more in depth at all five components with Mondesi
AVERAGE
In 119 games at Single-A, Mondesi hit .214.
In 110 games at Double-A, Mondesi hit .248.
In 128 games at Triple-A, Mondesi has hit .292.
The number clearly improved the last two seasons, but you have to have some concern, don’t you, that he hit .230 in 229 games at Single and Double-A?
It’s appropriate here to point out that his first 69 games in the big leagues that Mondesi hit .181 in 69 games. Yikes is right. In 147 games overall at the big-league level, he’s hit .238. His BABIP in that time is .310, just slightly above the league average. It’s fair to posit the number could be closer to the .335 he posted last season, his speed should allow him to leg out some balls on the infield, but it is what it is.
To date, he hasn’t shown a split concern as he’s been equally bad against both sides with a .243 mark against lefties and a .235 mark against righties.
He’s hit a bit better – relatively speaking – at home at .249, versus his .227 mark on the road.
If we take a look at his batted ball data, we see a 35.1 percent mark of balls at 95 mph or better. That rate, amongst the 281 players with 200 batted ball events was just 164th, or in the lower half. He was much better at 47th in barrel percentage, but I’m still not in love with this profile leading to appreciably more hits than in the past.
The real concern I have with his average is the fact that his swing at everything approach is far from ideal. I can’t help but think Tim Anderson when I see his overall game. As a minor leaguer, Mondesi had a 0.24 BB/K ratio which is horrible (the major league average last year was 0.38). As a big leaguer he has a horrendous 0.14 mark (the mark has been 0.13, 0.14 and 0.14 in his three seasons). This is a scary approach that can lead to extended periods of ineffectiveness with the bat in one’s hands, and impact the on-base stuff as well (more on that later). To reiterate, his career mark of 0.14 is roughly 37 percent of the league average of 0.38. How can one describe that other than saying it’s terrible?
Some more data.
Mondesi had a O-swing% of 37.1 in 2018 (swings on pitches outside the strike zone).
The league average in 2018 was 30.9 percent.
Mondesi had a Z-swing% of 79.3 in 2018 (swings on pitches inside the strike zone).
The league average in 2018 was 67.3 percent.
Mondesi had a Swing% rate 54.9 in 2018.
The league average in 2018 was 46.6 percent.
Flat out… Mondesi swings at anything in the air. Pitchers/teams will have spent the offseason analyzing his tendencies and they will mercilessly exploit them this season. Unless he changes his approach, he will more likely end up closer to his career .238 batting mark than the .276 mark he posted last season.
POWER
As a minor leaguer, his Isolated Power mark is .152.
As a big leaguer, his Isolated Power mark is .168.
The big-league average last season was .161.
That should be your starting point with Mondesi, the fact that we’re really looking at a pretty average-ish power bat.
Mondesi has one season, out of seven minor league seasons with 10 homers. Read that again.
Mondesi hit a homer every 42.4 at-bats in the minors, or 12 per 500 at-bats.
Mondesi then hit three homers his first 188 at-bats as a big leaguer, or one every 62.7 at-bats.
Last season with the Royals he hit 14 in 275 at-bats, or one every 19.6. What led to him increasing his homer pace more than 100 percent?
Did he hit more fly balls? He hit more than he did in 2017 but less than he did in 2016. Still, his 2018 rate with the Royals was 37.6 percent which is slightly below the rate he posted in the minors, so he actually hit slightly less fly balls. That doesn’t speak to his growth at all.
Well, then he must have increased his HR/FB ratio. He did. In fact, he basically doubled his career rate, and that rarely sticks long-term. As a Royal here are his three years numbers: 6.7, 11.1 and 19.7 percent. Add together his first two years and you get 17.8 percent. He was above that in 2018. The highest mark he had ever posted was in a mere 29 games at Double in 2016 at 15.2 percent, and I would strongly argue that was an artifact of sample size. The truth is, I find it completely implausible to strongly believe he will be able to maintain his Royals rate from last season.
I think the data suggests the 20+ homers most are expecting is at least on the lower half of certain. Another way to say it – I’d take the under if 20 homers was the number.
RBI
His runs batted in total will be limited a bit by his position in the lineup. If Billy Hamilton hits 9th, more on that below, there will be many a time that Mondesi will come to the plate with an empty situation (Whit Merrifield will obviously do a better job getting on base out of the leadoff spot than Hamilton, but you get the point). Its also wont help Mondesi if he’s unable to drive the ball at the level we saw last season, and with his ability to pitched to. The projections got this one right.
RUNS SCORED
The approach, discussed above, leaves him in the dugout an awful lot.
As a minor leaguer he owns a horrible .303 OBP. The mark was better at Triple-A at .328, though he hit .292 which obviously shows that his OBP is directly tied to his batting average (.036-point difference).
As a major leaguer his OBP is mind-boggling awful at .273. Even in 2018 the rate was .306, which was way off the league average of .318. The spread between his average and OBP in 2018 with the Royals was .030 points. He ain’t gonna score 80+ runs, with any ease, if he has a .306 OBP.
Of the 140 men who had 502 plate appearances last season, only 25 had an OBP of .306 or lower. Of that group of 25, only two scored 80 runs (Ozzie Albies and Brian Dozier). Mondesi will need to increase his ability to get on base to be a big run scoring option, and to this point there is no data to suggest he will
STEALS
You gotta get on base to steal bases. Some guys work around that, new teammate Billy Hamilton being an obvious outlier, but the truth remains that if you’re not on base, you ain’t running.
He has been over 80 percent in his conversion rates as a minor leaguer and a pro, so he’s really good at not getting caught.
However, his SBO% (SB+CS / 1B+BB) was 61 percent last season (the league average was just under 10 percent last season). Players just don’t do that consistently. Even Billy Hamilton, who seemingly runs every time he gets on base, has had a mark of 56, 46 and 32 percent the past three years. It seems illogical to think that Mondesi will be able to maintain the rate he flashed last season, and as such the only way he’s stealing 50+ bases in ’19 is if he increases his ability to get on base.
PLAYING TIME
Mondesi plays every day that he’s healthy enough to. That has to be the plan for the Royals heading into the season. Now, where he hits in the order could be up for some debate. He hit 1st or 2nd 27 times last season and 8th or 9th 37 times. Seems like the team is intent on using him in the top third of the order rather than Billy Hamilton (who appears likely to hit ninth), in fact second seems to be the likely spot for Mondesi behind Whit Merrifield, but batting slot is something to keep in mind with Mondesi if he opens up the season in a slow manner.
AVERAGE DRAFT POSITION DATA
As of this writing, here is the ADP data for Mondesi since February first.
| SITE | Overall | Position Rank |
|
42.0 |
7th |
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CONCLUSION
The answer to your prayers? The “projectors” dream, Mondesi brings speed on the base paths at a time when that is in short supply. He also showed some pop last year leading many to believe he’s on the cusp of stardom. That’s the positive spin. The negative spin (which by the way is also a possible outcome, even if many want to dismiss the fact that he could fail to match the heights he climbed to last season) follows. I ask, with all sincerity, does Adalberto really profile any differently than Jonathan Villar? I don’t think so, and as of this writing Villar has an ADP that is virtually double at 81.3. I’m totally out on Mondesi at his current price.
10-Team Mixed: Too expensive in a league this thin.
12/15 Team Mixed: If you’re talking the plunge here be sure that you roster a good deal of batting average upside as Mondesi is likely to help in that category. Also keep in mind what was written above, that the 20/50 thing people are dreaming about isn’t likely to happen.
AL-Only League: This spot is a tough one. You will have to make Mondesi a centerpiece of your team in this format. Are you willing to do that? Even if you are, you will be forced to be astute with how you fill out your offensive unit because the certainty factor with Mondesi is going to be a hell of a lot lower than the players that will be taken at the same time in your draft.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
