Ray Flowers and Vlad Sedler take counter positions on a single player, one for, one against. Which one of our experts do you agree with? Does either strike a knockout blow? Is there a TKO? Is there a need for another round?
James Paxton, SP, Yankees
By Ray Flowers
Let’s start with the most obvious. He’s extremely talented. The second most obvious point is that he’s continual sidelined with injury (last year he dealt with back and forearm issues). This man has one season of 140-innings pitched at the big-league level in six seasons. He has no seasons, none, in which he’s qualified for the big-league ERA title. None. At some point you have to stare directly into the eyes of a man. When you do that with Paxton you see a guy that just can’t push his game across the finish line. He has never proven capable of delivering the innings needed to be a fantasy horse. Despite that fact, sometimes folks are taking him as an SP1 this season. That’s a mistake according to this analyst. Let me return to where I started and touch on the skills a bit, lets you think it’s merely an innings argument. Paxton doesn’t walk guys and pounds the strikeout column giving him two parts of the trinity of pitching. Let’s talk about the third part, the ground ball. This should be a big concern for his backers as he moves from the Pacific Northwest to toss the pelota in New York in a ball park that adores the home run. Paxton’s ground ball rate, once at elite levels, has dipped not once or twice, but every season of his career. Here are the numbers: 59.1 percent, 54.8, 48.3, 48.1, 44.9 and 39.6 last season. Last season he sported a 0.96 GB/FB ratio, light years from his 1.43 career rate. If he maintains that depressed number this season, throwing half his games in New York, people are gonna start talking about him being homer prone like guys like Mike Fiers and Luis Castillo. Paxton is just gonna be too expensive given those two legitimate, and impossible to ignore issues of ill-health and an ever-decreasing ground ball rate.
By Vlad Sedler
The cold, hard truth is difficult to ignore. The Big Maple recently turned 30 and still does not have a major league season with 30 games started under his belt. All being equal, the hopeful dreamer in me would take four straight hitters to start a draft and then take Paxton and Stephen Strasburg as my first two pitchers. But the risk in such a roster build is bountiful and not realistic, except for those who love torture and heartbreak. We simply can’t count on more than 150 to 160 innings out of Paxton. But boy, will those innings be valuable and glorious. There is certainly some concern moving from a pitcher-friendly park in Safeco to a hitter-friendly one, but something tells me Paxton is going to earn those pinstripes and post a career season. The AL East isn’t the same offensive powerhouse it once was, outside of the Red Sox. The Orioles and Blue Jays sport two of the league’s worst offenses and the Rays’ style of contact sans power plays right into Paxton’s strengths on the mound. Numbers-wise, Paxton has been incredibly poised and in control when not hampered by some type of injury. Over the past two seasons, only 10 starting pitchers with at least 250 innings pitched have posted a better WHIP than Paxton’s 1.10 and his 6.6 percent BB-rate falls among the 25 best. His DRA (deserved run average) ranked among the top 10 starting pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched and he increased usage of his best pitch (cutter) last season, posting an impressive 21 percent whiff rate with it. His HR/9 should increase from what we’ve seen last few seasons but may balance out with the tremendous run support he should receive which should bump up opportunities to secure wins – typically, an unpredictable category, but one that certainly gets a boost with on a team like the Yankees in 2019. Worth his ADP now with a potential for profit and ending the season as a top-10 guy. Just stay healthy, my friend.
