Andrew Heaney took a long while to arrive. He finally did last season though there were still some obvious concerns. That said, he’s visited the doctor’s office so frequently in his career that its hard to have any level of confidence in him despite the skills that he flashed last season. Let’s explore just what makes him tick, and if the overall confidence in his game is warranted heading into 2019.
27 years old
Bats/Throws: Left/Left
Height/Weight: 6’2”, 185 lbs.
Position: Starting Pitcher
THE NUMBERS
| Level | IP | W-L | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | GB/FB | |
| 2012 | RK, A | 27 | 1-2 | 4.33 | 1.41 | 10.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | |
| 2013 | A+, AA | 95.1 | 9-3 | 1.60 | 1.07 | 8.40 | 2.50 | 4.00 | |
| 2014 | AA, AAA | 137.7 | 9-6 | 3.28 | 1.14 | 9.40 | 2.40 | 0.70 | |
| 2015 | AAA | 78.1 | 6-2 | 4.71 | 1.53 | 8.50 | 2.90 | 0.20 | |
| 2017 | RK, AAA | 27.2 | 1-2 | 2.60 | 1.19 | 9.40 | 1.60 | 0.70 | |
| 2018 | A+, AA | 6.1 | 1-0 | 1.42 | 0.47 | 8.50 | 1.40 | 0.00 | |
| 2014 | MLB | 29.1 | 0-3 | 5.83 | 1.33 | 6.14 | 2.15 | 1.84 | 1.27 |
| 2015 | MLB | 105.2 | 6-4 | 3.49 | 1.20 | 6.64 | 2.38 | 0.77 | 0.97 |
| 2016 | MLB | 6 | 0-1 | 6.00 | 1.17 | 10.50 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 1.14 |
| 2017 | MLB | 21.2 | 1-2 | 7.06 | 1.66 | 11.22 | 3.74 | 4.98 | 0.63 |
| 2018 | MLB | 180 | 9-10 | 4.15 | 1.20 | 9.00 | 2.25 | 1.35 | 1.17 |
| Career | 342.2 | 16-20 | 4.31 | 1.24 | 8.19 | 2.34 | 1.47 | 1.07 |
| Baseball America | Baseball Prospectus | MLB.com | |
| 2013 | 43rd | 81st | |
| 2014 | 30th | 30th | 29th |
| 2015 | 42nd | 37th | 25th |
THE SKILLS
Let’s start with the issues.
1 – It’s mildly dangerous to look at Andrew and think “big innings,” despite having done so multiple times in his career (more on that below). Was his late season slide a result of being tired? His second numbers (.268/.310/.455 with a .328 wOBA) were off his first half levels (.228/.292/.391 with a .297 wOBA) significantly, though of course we’re only talking 180 innings here. Note that he has a 5.20 K/BB in the second half with a 1.28 GB/FB ratio, so it wasn’t all bad after the break.
2 – Heaney dominated lefties last year with a .238 wOBA, but his work against righties was worse than the league average at .330. That result isn’t new for him either. In his career he’s held lefties to a .253 wOBA while righties have beat him for a .344 wOBA. That effort against righties includes a .479 SLG and 1.91 homers per nine (the rate was 1.74 in 2018). That’s scary terrible. For his career, righties have basically battered him with the deep ball. For context, a 1.91 HR/9 rate, over 175 innings, equates to 37 homers, and that’s awful. We can talk about a lot of factors, but one that simply must be addressed is the fly ball and the homer (his GB/FB ratio is 0.89 against righties).
3 – Heaney allowed at least five runs eight times last season in 30 starts. That’s a bit of the ole Jekyll and Hyde thing that we just don’t want to see with our hurler.
4 – Though he crushed it with the bases empty with a .296 wOBA, the mark was .334 with men on base and .355 with runners in scoring position. Look at his walk rate in such scenarios as being indicative of the issues he dealt with. He had a 1.90 BB/9 with the bases empty. The mark rose to 2.79 with men on base. The mark exploded to 4.19 with runners in scoring position.
Let’s look at the overall package.
Heaney has a three-pitch mix: fastball 58.2 percent, slider 25.2 percent and changeup 16.6 percent. His career numbers are 60.6/22.1/17.3. Here are his pitch value marks for each offering (out of 57 starting pitchers): 38th in fastball, 32nd in slider and 6th in changeup. Yes, that changeup was his money pitch with a .276 wOBA.
Heaney has posted a swinging strike rate of 11.8 percent his last three seasons. That’s a borderline elite arm that speaks to his ability to punch out a batter per inning. Add in the 48.2 swing rate, 16th out of 57 qualifiers, and we have more support for the level.
Heaney jacked up his first pitch strike rate last season, getting ahead 0-1 is always huge, to 65 percent, basically five percent better than his career level. That’s tremendous growth and will go a long way to success in 2019 if he is able to replicate it.
Heaney threw just 42.7 percent of his pitches in the strike zone last year, a blah number (35th out of 57 who threw at least 162 innings). He was able to offset that by having a 33.5 percent swing rate on pitches outside the strike zone, the 14th best mark.
Regardless of how he has gotten there, Heaney owns a 3.51 K/BB ratio for his career, and the mark was 4.00 last season (13th out of 57 last year). Maintaining a whiff per inning, while keeping the walks in check is an ideal combination. However, I don’t love that 1.07 career GB/FB ratio, it’s pretty average, and as I noted above, he’s been blasted by the home run ball, especially against righties, in his big-league career.
Much was made at the time about a change he made to his delivery as he shifted to the third base side of the rubber during his rehab from elbow surgery. He didn’t like the results, so he scrapped that and went back to the first base side of the rubber where he’s more comfortable, and the change seemed to help him if the 2018 results are the guide.
PLAYING TIME
In 2016 he missed the season with a UCL injury leading to Tommy John surgery.
In 2017 he missed five months recovering from the surgery.
In 2018 he spent a couple of weeks on the DL with elbow inflammation.
As a result of those woes, here are his innings pitched totals.
2012: 27 innings
2013: 95.1 innings
2014: 166.2 innings
2015: 184.0 innings
2016 6.0 innings
2017: 49.1 innings
2018: 186.0 innings
As you can plainly see, he does have three innings with more than 165-innings under his belt, but only once in a seven-year career does he have back-to-back seasons of 100-innings pitched. He is slated to make 30 starts for the Angels as he’s coming off the best year of their returning starting hurlers.
AVERAGE DRAFT POSITION DATA
As of this writing, here is the ADP data for Heaney.
|
|
Overall |
Position Rank |
|
168.0 |
60th |
The Fantasy Guru Rankings can be found by clicking on the link.
CONCLUSION
There are skills to envy, some concerns and health to factor in with Heaney. If he was 23 instead of 27 years of age, I would hold out a little more hope for him. If he wasn’t so flat out bad at keeping the ball in the yard against righties, I would hold out a little more hope for him (until he develops an ability to keep the ball out of the seats, it’s hard to view him as a legit option to post an ERA much below 3.75, given that he pitches in the American League). If he had more consistently been on the diamond a bit more, I would hold out a little more hope for him. All told this is a nice skillset, if he can stay on the field long enough for it to matter.
10-Team Mixed: He won’t be on my target list here, more of a watch list type, if it’s the late reserve rounds.
12-15 Team Mixed: Young enough to take a step if healthy, he’s not a bad lower end starting pitching option in these setups. The strikeouts, something everyone is searching for this draft season, should be there making him a nice, mid-level option that could deliver enough punchouts to surpass his draft day cost.
AL-Only League: As noted, still young enough to improve, and there are some nice pitches here when broken down. Should be a decent target here, since the cost will not be prohibitive.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
