The NFL combine Is almost here and it’s an incredibly important part of the draft process. This is the first real opportunity NFL teams get at evaluating most of these players up close, and it can be an important factor in determining where a player gets selected on draft day. Between medicals, interviews and on-field athletic testing, there’s an enormous amount of information generated throughout the week, so it’s important to be privy to the prospects (At least somewhat) before the week begins. In this four-part series, each piece will review a full position, including a quick run through of each prospects backstory, and a general read on how their week could go.
Running Back (RB) is one of the few positions where the combine can truly have a SIGNIFICANT impact. The combine is not only a test of athleticism, but medicals can go a long way in determining where RBs land on draft day. RBs come in all shapes, sizes and athletic capabilities, and it’s good to have a way of identifying the latter. While the games are played on the field and film evaluation is a significant indicator, getting a macro view of RBs from an athletic perspective can be a great way to create an order in chaos. Anyhow, let’s review the prospects who are competing in this event.
MOST TO GAIN
Damien Harris (RB, Alabama) — Despite the offseason starting off with all talk centered around his teammate Josh Jacobs, Harris is a very solid RB prospect in his own right. Harris was a three-year “starter” at Alabama, leading three committee backfields which were incredibly effective. Harris had 1,000 or more yards from scrimmage in each of his last three seasons, and it was a curious decision for him to go back to school after his highly efficient junior season. Harris finished his college career with 3,477 yards from scrimmage and 6.6 yards per touch. Harris is a wildcard from an athleticism standpoint. His solid style has mostly been utilized between the tackles in his career, and while he’s certainly displayed athletic plays, it’s tough to tell where he lands on a macro scale. While he’s not being discussed as a top RB in the class currently, if he tests out above average, he could find himself being selected in the early second round range.
Darrell Henderson (RB, Memphis) — Based on his play at Memphis, there’s very little doubt Henderson is an athletic prospect, the questions come for him with his size. While he’s built solid, never had injury concerns (beyond a few nicks and bruises) and was incredibly productive, Henderson is currently viewed as a small RB prospect. A narrative that should be dispelled is that 200 pounds (Henderson’s projected weight) is small. While the current era of RB prospects is of the bigger variety, 2010-2015 was dominated by the likes of Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, and Maurice Jones-Drew. If Henderson can pack on a few pounds, time as expected and pass medicals, he could be in contention to be the first RB selected. Henderson is currently viewed as a mid-round (round 3 or 4), but with a good combine could vault into the early second round range.
Miles Sanders (RB, Penn State) — Sanders is a bit of a wild card coming into the combine. After sitting behind the hulking mass of athleticism that is Saquon Barkley in his first two seasons, Sanders finally got a legitimate opportunity at a featured role in 2018. He thrived in his lead role, accumulating 1,413 yards from scrimmage on 244 touches. Considering the state of the Penn State offense and how limited the passing game was by the end of the season, it’s even more impressive. Sanders is a solidly built prospect (listed at 215 pounds) and could increase his stock considerably with good athletic testing. While Sanders isn’t currently viewed as an athletic prospect, his play on the field displays SPARQ-y behavior. If Sanders can hit the high 4.4s or even low 4.5s in the forty-yard dash, he’ll cap his floor as a top three round prospect.
Myles Gaskin (RB, Washington) — Gaskin was a four-year starter at Washington, played in some huge games and was incredibly productive from his freshman season on. Gaskin finished his career with 5,788 yards from scrimmage, good for 20th all-time. Gaskin thrived in all facets of being a RB, and projects as a player that should be able to thrive in all areas of the field. The big issue for Gaskin is his size. There’s a high likelihood he weighs in at less than 200 pounds at the combine, which will get some long looks from NFL personnel. While this could limit his ceiling for draft position, Gaskin should test out well, and provide some excitement in agility drills. There’s no doubt Gaskin has NFL potential, and when the dust settles, there’s a high likelihood this will be a good week for him despite the low weight.
Trayveon Williams (RB, Texas A&M) — Williams had one of the more productive careers of the 2019 RB class, but hasn’t been held in high regard as of now. Williams has shown proficiency in all areas of the field, and projects as a player that can handle a sizable workload. Williams is another RB who could weigh in smaller than prototypical size, so the athletic testing will be important. Williams was a highly efficient player on a per touch basis throughout his career, and it’s fair to believe he’ll test out as an above average athlete, specifically in agility drills. Williams handled 22.9 touches per game in 2018 and can help his draft position case by testing out as an above average athlete. Williams is currently projected as a mid-round prospect, but with a solid combine, could find himself in the top three round discussion.
Mike Weber (RB, Ohio State) — Weber is another talented RB who got back luck as far as depth chart competition was concerned. After red-shirting his freshman season because of Ezekiel Elliott, Weber worked himself into a sizable sophomore season role, producing 1,187 yards from scrimmage, including 1,096 on the ground. After that, it appeared Weber was in line to be the next featured Ohio State RB. However, J.K. Dobbins had other plans. An early season hamstring in 2017 cost Weber early-season playing time and gave Dobbins time to prove himself as a special prospect, which he did. By the end of that year, Dobbins had full control of the backfield, and never let go. 2018 operated with Dobbins as the lead back, and Weber was subsequently forced into a part time role. Weber has solid size and displayed breakaway speed on multiple occasions in his college career. Despite being Wally Pipp’d, Weber is a talented prospect and a high pedigree player. A solid combine could vault him into a much higher projected draft round than currently expected.
Travis Homer (RB, Miami) — Homer is listed at a thin 5 foot 11 and 195 pounds. It remains to be seen what that’ll look like at the combine, but adding weight should certainly be in his future. Homer was a home run threat at Miami, producing a plethora of big plays that show off his long speed. If there’s one player that could shoot up the board with their forty yard dash time, it’s Homer. Beyond the big plays, Homer did struggle with vision and leaving yards on the table with technique, but there’s clearly a skill set to work with. Homer handled 181 (2017) and 183 (2018) touches in his final two seasons and showed an ability to sustain his effectiveness on increased touches. Homer has real potential to bump himself into a round three or round four discussion with elite athletic testing.
MOST TO LOSE
Rodney Anderson (RB, Oklahoma) — Anderson had arguably the most erratic college career of any 2019 prospect. After not seeing much of an opportunity in his first two seasons for a multitude of reasons (Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon most notably), Anderson blasted out of the gate in 2017 on the high-flying Oklahoma offense. Quarterback Baker Mayfield and company created a situation where everyone could thrive, and Anderson certainly did. Anderson has a prototypical NFL RB body type (6’1” 220) and if he can test himself at the combine, should be able to test out as an above average to special weight adjusted athlete. The issues come off the field for Anderson. He’s suffered three major injuries (to varying degrees) and has struggled mightily to stay on the field. Medicals are going to be the major storyline here, and how teams view that situation will be the most important factor in where he gets drafted.
David Montgomery (RB, Iowa State) —Montgomery is a favorite for many in the 2019 RB class. His imposing style and large frame bring highlight plays and exciting tackle breaking ability to the table. Montgomery was a workhorse RB for Iowa State in each of his last two seasons, accumulating 573 touches In that span, or 22.9 touches per game. Montgomery was not an efficient college player. His career yards per touch was 5.0 and his career yards per rushing attempt was 4.7. There’s multiple reasons for this, and one is the lack of talent around him offensively, but ultimately, some of that leans on him. Where Montgomery gets drafted will depend largely on how he tests athletically, and there’s a real chance he performs poorly. His draft round projection is generally perceived in a top two round range but could be in for a steep fall if things don’t go perfectly athleticism-wise.
Josh Jacobs (RB, Alabama) — Jacobs and Georgia RB Elijah Holyfield share similar backstories as far as their lack of college touches are concerned. Jacobs spent most of his career competing with a highly competitive Alabama RB depth chart. Between Najee Harris, Damien Harris and Bo Scarbrough and a plethora of other highly touted recruits, there were only so many touches to go around in Jacobs’ three seasons. When Jacobs touched the ball, he was a very productive player, the problem being he didn’t touch the ball that often. There are lofty draft round projections for Jacobs currently, and a lot of that is based on a very small sample size of touches. It’s a mystery how Jacobs will test out athletically, and while there’s definitely optimism, there’s also a chance he isn’t the athlete he’s currently perceived. With round one draft projections, Jacobs will have to test out as an elite athlete considering his complete lack of featured college production. If he doesn’t, the third round would make much more sense based on historical comparisons to his production profile.
Justice Hill (RB, Oklahoma State) — Hill is another player who will have to deal with size issues. While Hill carried a significant load in all three of his college seasons, there are legitimate reasons to think NFL teams will be skeptical of that translating to the NFL. Hill is listed at 5 foot 10 and 190 pounds, which is not a size that NFL RBs have succeeded at. He also doesn’t appear to be an elite athlete, which would be a requirement if he checks in at that size. Hill is a talented player who was very productive at Oklahoma State, accumulating 3,843 yards from scrimmage in only three seasons. There’s certainly a talented skill set here, but barring elite athletic testing, mid-to-late rounds (round five to seven) would be the most plausible projection.
Bryce Love (RB, Stanford) — After dealing with multiple injuries throughout his final season at Stanford, Love tore his ACL in the final game of his college career. After the down final season, it was already clear the draft process wasn’t going to be kind to Love, but adding a major injury to his resume is almost certainly going to plummet his stock from where it was two years ago. In 2015 and 2016 Love played a part-time role behind future first round prospect Christian McCaffrey, and while thriving at that role, was clearly worthy of more. In 2017 Love had the backfield to himself and manifested one of the greatest pure rushing seasons in college football history. Love put together 2,118 rushing yards on only 263 attempts (8.1 per attempt), carrying the Stanford offense. All that context aside, the draft process isn’t going to be kind to Love considering his final season and major injury. Love won’t compete in athletic testing, but his medicals are still important to track.
OTHERS
Devin Singletary (RB, Florida Atlantic) — Few players can hold up to the production profile of Singletary. Between 4,684 yards from scrimmage and 67 touchdowns, Singletary together a magical three seasons at Florida Atlantic. Singletary is a small but lean runner, who can run between the tackles but mostly succeeds with power in the open field. Singletary has a solid tackle-breaking ability in the open field and has shown consistency in finding open lanes. Despite being on the smaller side of the RB prospect spectrum, Singletary thrives on contact and wins more one on one battles with defenders than average. Singletary is placed in the “OTHERS” category, not for lack of talent, but because his draft round projection is REALLY stable barring a medical red flag or catastrophic athletic testing. Singletary has put enough production and film on the table to project he goes in the top four rounds with confidence. Singletary going to a small school, playing weak competition and not projecting to be an elite athlete lowers his ceiling out of the first round. The third round would be a very likely destination.
Elijah Holyfield (RB, Georgia) — Holyfield finally got an opportunity for touches in his final season at Georgia. Nick Chubb and Sony Michel staying for their final seasons put a huge dent in any potential for touches Holyfield had. Add in a future special prospect in D’Andre Swift, and Holyfield was pinned to the ground. 2018 provided a nice platform for Holyfield to thrive, and he did but didn’t garner much hype considering his numbers weren’t prolific. Holyfield finished his final season with 1,018 rushing yards on only 159 attempts (6.4 per attempt). Holyfield is a burst-based runner and can thrive in a one-cut system. His forty yard dash time will be important in projecting what type of long speed he possesses. Holyfield showed solid power on inside runs, and always seems to fall forward. There may not be a lot of subtlety to Holyfield’s game, but he can certainly add an interesting element to an NFL offense.
Benny Snell (RB, Kentucky) — Snell is a fun player to watch, and carried an otherwise weak Kentucky offense for three seasons. Snell faced the best competition in college football for those three seasons and thrived, producing 4,089 yards from scrimmage and 48 touchdowns. In terms of an NFL projection, there’s no doubt he belongs, but it’s fair to question how versatile he can be. Lack of college receptions isn’t too concerning considering the structure of the offense, but Snell being viewed as a one-dimensional prospect is certainly a reality of his situation. If that label sticks, his ceiling is capped on projected draft round. Snell isn’t expected to test out like an elite athlete, and barring him doing so, will likely find himself landing in the middle rounds.
Dexter Williams (RB, Notre Dame) — Notre Dame was in dire need of an explosive weapon halfway through 2018 and they received it with Williams. There was some mystery around why Williams missed time to begin the season, but regardless, once he got slotted back in, he made a big impact. Williams finished 2018 with 1,128 yards from scrimmage in only 9 games. Williams was another RB who struggled for playing time for most of his career. Williams took a backseat to C.J. Prosise in 2015, and Josh Adams in 2016 and 2017. While Prosise was a high-end prospect (third round selection in 2016), it’s hard to say what getting beat out by a future undrafted prospect in Adams says about Williams. Williams lack of college production creates a low floor for his projected draft round, and if he doesn’t test out well, there could be a free fall.
James Williams (RB, Washington State) — Williams never had more than 585 rushing yards in a single season, and was essentially used as a receiving down back in the pass-heavy Washington State system. There’s certainly an avenue where Williams ends up transitioning to wide receiver in the NFL, but for now, RB it is. Williams obviously thrives on passing downs and on the edges but wasn’t put in a position to thrive between the tackles either, so it’s tough to tell what he’d look like in a run-heavy system. How Williams tests in agility drills will be incredibly intriguing, and ultimately will lead to where he gets drafted. Williams is great at making defenders miss in open space, and will almost assuredly be how NFL teams try to deploy him. Williams is likely to be a late-round draft pick regardless of how he tests.
Ryquell Armstead (RB, Temple) — Armstead is very likely to be a late round prospect, and isn’t someone that has a very high ceiling for projected draft round. Armstead played four years at Temple, and only became a featured weapon in his final season, despite being a solid contributor for them for his final three seasons. Armstead did have 2,987 career yards from scrimmage, but it was on a mediocre yards per touch (5.0) in one of the worst defense rated conferences in the nation (American). Armstead does have some redeeming qualities, and could find avenues to being on an NFL roster, but is unlikely to be drafted highly, if at all. There’s certainly athletic testing to be had, and there’s potential for Armstead to increase his value with good weight-adjusted athleticism, but that appears unlikely based on film.
Alex Barnes (RB, Kansas State) — Barnes is a fun power RB that has redeeming qualities. After a few mediocre seasons (production-wise), Barnes broke out as a featured player in his redshirt Junior season at Kansas State, producing 1,549 yards from scrimmage. Barnes used his size and physicality to be the hammer in an otherwise mediocre offense. Barnes is a classic two-down RB, and can certainly help an NFL team. There isn’t much there as far as agility is concerned, and athleticism certainly isn’t a positive for Barnes, but straight-line speed at his weight could be an asset. It’s tough to envision a way Barnes hits the early rounds of the NFL draft, but will likely find a suitor in the sixth or seventh round. Barnes will likely find early playing time on special teams.
Nick Brossette (RB, LSU) — After dealing with Leonard Fournette and Derrius Guice for his first three seasons, Brossette jumped into the starting RB spot for LSU as a senior. Brossette leads LSU in rushing with 1,039 yards and had a few big games against tough competition (125 Rushing yards and 2 touchdowns against Miami, 123 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns against Florida). Ultimately, Brossette is a two-down running back who has limited upside as an NFL player. Based on film and production, it’s very likely Brossette tests out as a below average RB athletically. Ultimately, Brossette is a late round or undrafted type prospect from a draft round projection perspective and that’s very unlikely to change at the combine.
Karan Higdon (RB, Michigan) — Higdon found his way to a borderline featured role in his final two seasons at Michigan. Higdon had 1,125 yards from scrimmage in 2017 and 1,221 in 2018, managing to out-duel Chris Evans and a few other talented RBs on the depth chart. Higdon is on the smaller side of things (listed at 5 foot 10 and 200 pounds) and could be asked to transition to being more of a pass-catcher at the NFL level. Despite his size, Higdon thrived as a power runner in the Michigan system, and could certainly handle some inside carries at the next level. While Higdon doesn’t possess blazing speed, he did have enough in college to make angles on long runs difficult to asses for defenders. Higdon, more likely than not, will test out as an average athlete and be drafted in the mid-to-late rounds (Round four to six).
Alexander Mattison (RB, Boise State) — Mattison filled the role Jay Ajayi and Jeremy McNichols left behind for him. Mattison produced 3,340 yards from scrimmage in three seasons, two as a starter. Mattison received a significant amount of volume in his final two seasons, including 329 touches in 2018. It’s unclear how Mattison will test athletically, and that will ultimately determine his draft spot. As things currently stand, it’s unlikely Mattison will be drafted in the top five rounds, but if he surprises at the combine, a round four or five selection could be in order.
Jalin Moore (RB, Appalachian State) — There would likely be a lot more attention paid to Moore currently if he hadn’t gotten injured in his final season. After two productive seasons as the featured guy for Appalachian State, 2018 was slated to be a huge season for Moore. He started off the year in special fashion, providing 124 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown in a close loss to Penn State. Moore put together a few more big games before ultimately going down with a season-ending ankle injury against Arkansas State. While the injury is a bad look, it was on a fluky play, and Moore has proven in the past he’s been able to successfully carry a solid workload. Medicals will be important here, but if the ankle checks out, there could be an NFL team that takes a risk earlier than expected in the draft.
Qadree Ollison (RB, Pittsburgh) — Ollison had a strange career in hindsight. Ollison took the bull by the horns in 2015, his freshman season. 1,198 yards from scrimmage and 12 touchdowns later, it was looking like a bright future. However, the dynamic changed in the years after. The starting RB job was available in 2015 because RB James Conner was sick. Conner returned in 2016 and took starting touches back. In 2017 and 2018 Ollison was in a full committee with RB Darrin Hall. Ollison regained a lead of the committee in 2018, but never really built off an impressive freshman season. It’s unlikely Ollisn will impress in athletic testing, and it’s further unlikely he’ll be drafted beyond the late rounds.
Tony Pollard (RB, Memphis) — Pollard was the thunder to Darrell Henderson’s lightning at Memphis. Pollard is a taller runner with solid speed and displayed good ability between the tackles. While Pollard never achieved a high volume role, there was certainly high efficiency. Pollard’s career yards per touch is 9.2, and that defines his contributions well. In a similar vein to Washington State’s James Williams, Pollard spends about as much time receiving the ball as he did rushing it. There is a place in the NFL for Pollard, though it’s tough to tell where he’ll be drafted. While Pollard was clearly an inferior athlete to Henderson, that doesn’t mean he’s a bad athlete. There’s a chance Pollard can turn in above average athletic testing at the combine and have a team take a risk on his skill set in round five or so.
Jordan Scarlett (RB, Florida) — Florida is where promising skill position players have gone to die over the last decade, but Scarlett found a way to create a productive career for himself. Scarlett never crested 1,000 yards from scrimmage in a single season, but he did have two separate ones that were productive (912 yards from scrimmage in 2016, 860 in 2018). Scarlett is a solidly built prospect who was used and thrived primarily between the tackles. Scarlett didn’t receive many opportunities in the passing game, but it’s unclear if that’s a negative or a Florida lack of offensive creativity thing (I’d lean the latter). Scarlett isn’t likely to blow away athletic testing and should end up going somewhere in the mid-to-late rounds of the NFL draft. Rounds five or six would be most likely.
LJ Scott (RB, Michigan State) — Scott is a player that came into Michigan State with incredibly high expectations. After Le’Veon Bell, big Michigan State RBs were fashionable, and Scott was praised as the next in line. After three solid but disappointing seasons, Scott suffered through an injury-filled 2018 season, ending his Michigan State career with a whimper. Scott has nice appealing size, but his lack of successful production creates skepticism. Scott isn’t projected to test out well, but if he can put together a solid weight-adjusted athletic profile, there’s plenty of teams that will be willing to take a risk. He’s similar in that way to Arizona State RB Kalen Ballage from the 2018 class.
